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Crude Oil Extends Decline as Uncertainty Surrounding Recession Outweighs Tight Supply

Crude oil prices dipped by 2% on Monday following five sessions of consecutive gains as energy investors were concerned that the economic recession could erode demand for the commodity despite OPEC cuts.

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Crude oil prices dipped by 2% on Monday following five sessions of consecutive gains as energy investors were concerned that the economic recession could erode demand for the commodity despite OPEC cuts.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, was down by $1.73 or 1.8% to $96.19 a barrel at about 9:14 pm Nigerian time. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $91.13 a barrel, down by $1.51, or 1.6%. Both had risen the previous week largely on expectations of tightening global supply.

Oil prices fell amid comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials about rising interest rates and their effect on the economy.

Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said the economy is starting to feel more restrictive monetary policy, but the full brunt of the central bank’s interest rate hikes will not be apparent for months.

Brainard’s comments followed remarks by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans that there was a strong consensus at the Fed to raise the target policy rate to around 4.5% by March and hold it there.

“There’s more of the doom and gloom from those folks and what they’re going to do to the economy, because they’re not so convinced they have inflation under control, and that’s the macro play that’s weighing on oil,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

Oil prices also struggled under a strengthening U.S. dollar, which rose for a fourth session. A stronger dollar makes crude more expensive for non-American buyers.

The prospect of tightening OPEC+ oil supplies limited declines in prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, decided last week to lower their output target by 2 million barrels per day.

“OPEC+’s decision… will have a muted impact on the oil supply market as actual output cuts will be smaller,” Fitch Ratings said, noting that collectively the group was already producing less than its previous quotas.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Continue to Slide: Drops Over 1% Amid Surging U.S. Stockpiles

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Amidst growing concerns over surging U.S. stockpiles and indications of static output policies from major oil-producing nations, oil prices declined for a second consecutive day by 1% on Wednesday.

Brent crude oil, against which the Nigerian oil price is measured, shed 97 cents or 1.12% to $85.28 per barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slumped by 93 cents or a 1.14% fall to close at $80.69.

The recent downtrend in oil prices comes after they reached their highest level since October last week.

However, ongoing concerns regarding burgeoning U.S. crude inventories and uncertainties surrounding potential inaction by the OPEC+ group in their forthcoming technical meeting have exacerbated the downward momentum.

Market analysts attribute the decline to expectations of minimal adjustments to oil output policies by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, until a full ministerial meeting scheduled for June.

In addition to concerns about excess supply, the market’s attention is also focused on the impending release of official government data on U.S. crude inventories, scheduled for Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

Analysts are keenly observing OPEC members for any signals of deviation from their production quotas, suggesting further volatility may lie ahead in the oil market.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Approaches $86 Following Moscow Attacks

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions following the devastating terrorist attacks in Moscow, global oil markets rose with Brent crude oil hitting a $86 price level.

The tragic events in the Russian capital, which claimed the lives of over 130 innocent civilians, sent shockwaves through international communities and rattled energy markets already grappling with supply uncertainties.

Speculation surrounding the attacks, claimed by the Islamic State but with hints of potential Ukrainian involvement from Russian President Vladimir Putin, intensified concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies.

Also, ongoing drone strikes by Ukraine targeting Russian infrastructure further exacerbated worries about the stability of crude oil production and refining capabilities in the region.

The mounting geopolitical unrest in key oil-producing regions has injected a sense of urgency into the market, with investors closely monitoring developments for potential impacts on global supply and demand dynamics.

Despite recent fluctuations, crude oil is poised for a third consecutive monthly gain, buoyed by efforts from the OPEC+ alliance to maintain production cuts and bolstered by tightening US sanctions on Russian energy exports.

The bullish sentiment is further supported by positive commentary on the broader commodities outlook, with central banks signaling potential interest rate reductions to stimulate economic growth, thus underpinning industrial and consumer demand for raw materials.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the trajectory of oil prices, citing a delicate balance between supply risks and supportive macroeconomic factors amidst the backdrop of geopolitical turmoil.

As Brent crude inches closer to the $86 threshold, market participants brace for continued volatility amid unfolding geopolitical developments.

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Indian Refiners Shun Russian Crude Carried by Sovcomflot Tankers Amidst US Sanctions

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Indian refiners have taken a bold stance by refusing to accept Russian crude oil carried on PJSC Sovcomflot tankers, citing stringent US sanctions.

This decision marks a significant shift in India’s energy strategy and underscores the profound impact of global politics on the oil trade.

The move comes in the wake of heightened scrutiny on Sovcomflot tankers following sanctions imposed by the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.

Designating Sovcomflot and identifying specific crude oil tankers, the US has intensified its efforts to clamp down on entities linked to Russia, particularly in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion.

Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp., Hindustan Petroleum Corp., Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd., and Nayara Energy Ltd. have all halted the acceptance of cargoes carried on Sovcomflot vessels.

This unified action underscores the severity of the situation, with refiners diligently scrutinizing tanker ownership to ensure compliance with sanctions.

The repercussions of this decision are reverberating throughout the oil market, leading to disruptions in the supply chain and altering trade dynamics.

With fewer tankers available to transport Russian crude, the pricing landscape has undergone a significant shift, with discounts narrowing to compensate for higher freight costs.

Despite the challenges posed by sanctions and supply chain disruptions, India remains a key player in the global oil market.

However, the decision to shun Russian crude on Sovcomflot tankers reflects a strategic recalibration in response to evolving geopolitical realities, underscoring the complex interplay between politics and energy security on the world stage.

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