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Nigeria Risks Losing N1.37 Trillion as PENGASSAN Threatens to Embark on Strike

Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) threatens to embark on a nationwide strike amid rising crude oil theft.

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The federal government could lose as much as N1.37 trillion worth of crude oil production as the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) threatens to embark on a nationwide strike amid rising crude oil theft.

PENGASSAN said the industrial action would last for 30 days, except the government addressed the nation’s incessant crude oil theft.

The association zonal chairman, Prince Audu Osihiokhamele, who was present at a sensitization rally held in Warri, Delta State disclosed on Friday.

According to him “the big men doing the business of crude oil theft are in government.

“They say they load vessels, but we don’t see any. Is it a needle?”

Audu further stated that should the authorities fail to take the necessary actions to arrest the crisis, PENGASSAN would be forced to take drastic action.

He said “We will shut down the country for 30 days until we all come to the round table to unravel the mysteries surrounding the thefts.

“PENGASSAN will resort to shutting down production for 30 days by withdrawing members, both onshore and offshore, wherever they are producing crude, should the government fail to hearken to this warning.”

In July 2022, Nigeria’s crude oil production dropped to an all-time low of 972,394 barrels per day, according to a report released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and obtained by Investors King.

Prior to theft and a series of attacks in the Southern part of the country, Nigeria’s crude oil production stood at about 2.1 million barrels per day. However, despite oil trading at a relatively high price in recent months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, production in Africa’s largest economy has nosedived and continues to trend downward.

This, experts have attributed to an unusually high level of oil theft in key crude oil producing states. Some stakeholders have gone as far as accusing politicians and other government officials of being part-takers or even encouraging it.

Recently, in an effort to curb theft and prop up Nigerian crude oil production, the Federal Government was forced to engage the service of a rebel leader, popularly known as Tompolo.

Tompolo, who was once declared wanted and a criminal, was awarded N48 billion, or $112.123 million in yearly survelliance contract to provide security for government oil assets and investments in the Southern part of the nation.

While this agreement might work in the near term, it could spell doom for the nation in the future like the Boko haram in the North and IPOB in the East.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Surge as Hurricane Francine Disrupts U.S. Gulf Production, Brent and WTI See Gains

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Oil prices rose on Friday, extending a rally sparked by output disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, where Hurricane Francine forced producers to evacuate platforms before it hit the coast of Louisiana.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian crude oil is priced, rose by 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.31 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 38 cents, or 0.6%, to $69.35 a barrel.

If those gains hold, both benchmarks will break a streak of weekly declines, despite a rough start that saw Brent crude dip below $70 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since late 2021. At current levels, Brent is set for a weekly increase of about 1.7%, and WTI is set to gain over 2%.

Oil producers assessed damages and conducted safety checks on Thursday as they prepared to resume operations in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as estimates emerged of the loss of supply from Francine.

UBS analysts forecast output in the region in September will fall by 50,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) month-over-month, while FGE analysts estimated a 60,000 bpd drop to 1.69 million bpd.

The supply shock helped oil prices recover from a sharp selloff earlier in the week, with demand concerns dragging benchmarks to multi-year lows.

Both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency this week lowered their demand growth forecasts, citing economic struggles in China, the world’s largest oil importer.

A shift towards lower-carbon fuels is also weighing on China’s oil demand, speakers at the APPEC conference said this week.

Official data showed nearly 42% of the region’s oil output was shut-in as of Thursday.

China’s crude oil imports averaged 3.1% lower this year from January through August compared to the same period last year, customs data showed on Tuesday.

“Flagging domestic oil demand in China has become a hot topic and was further underlined by disappointing August trade data,” FGE analysts said in a note to clients.

Demand concerns have grown in the United States as well. U.S. gasoline and distillate futures traded at multi-year lows this week, as analysts highlighted weaker-than-expected demand in the top petroleum consuming country.

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Oil Prices Surge as Hurricane Threat Looms Over U.S. Gulf Coast

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Oil jumped in Asian trading on Monday as a potential hurricane system approached the U.S. Gulf Coast, and as markets recovered from a selloff following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 72 cents, or 1.06%, to $68.39 a barrel while Brent crude oil was up 71 cents, or 1%, at $71.77 a barrel.

Prices had gained as much as $1 during early Asian trading before pulling back.

Analysts said the bounce was in part a reaction to a potential hurricane in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

A weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday.

The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for some 60% of U.S. refining capacity.

“Sentiment recovered somewhat from last week’s selloff,” said independent market analyst Tina Teng.

At the Friday close, Brent had dropped 10% on the week to the lowest level since December 2021, while WTI fell 8% to its lowest close since June 2023 on weak jobs data in the U.S.

A highly anticipated U.S. government jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased less than market watchers had expected in August, rising by 142,000, and the July figure was downwardly revised to an increase of 89,000, which was the smallest gain since an outright decline in December 2020.

A decline in the jobless rate points to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by just 25 basis points this month rather than a half-point rate cut, analysts said.

Lower interest rates typically increase oil demand by spurring economic growth and making oil cheaper for holders of non-dollar currencies.

But weak demand continued to cap price gains.

The weakness in China is driven by economic slowdown and inventory destocking, Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at U.S. investment giant Carlyle Group, told the APPEC energy conference in Singapore on Monday.

Refining margins in Asia have slipped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2020 on weak demand from the two largest economies.

Fuel oil exports to the U.S. Gulf Coast fell to the lowest level since January 2019 last month on weaker refining margins.

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Oil Prices Rebound on OPEC+ Output Delay Talks and U.S. Inventory Drop

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Oil prices made a modest recovery on Thursday on the expectations that OPEC+ may delay planned production increases and the drop in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 66 cents, or 0.9% to $73.36 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 64 cents or 0.9% to $69.84 per barrel.

The rebound in oil prices was a result of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report that revealed that the U.S. crude oil inventories had fallen by a surprising 7.431 million barrels last week, against analysts 1 million barrel decline projection.

The decline signals better than projected demand for the commodity in the United States of America and offers some relief for traders on global demand.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, attributed the rebound in crude oil prices to the API report.

He said, “There is a pause of breath and light reprieve for oil prices.”

Also, discussions within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are fueling speculation about a potential delay in planned output increases.

The group was initially expected to increase production by 180,000 a day in October 2024.

However, concerns over softening demand in China and potential developments in Libya’s oil production have prompted the group to reconsider its strategy.

Despite the recent rebound, analysts caution that lingering uncertainties around global oil demand may continue to weigh on prices in the near term.

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