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Global Inflation Forecast to Rise to 7.5% by the End of 2022

Global inflation forecast to rise to 7.5% by the end of 2022, driven by food, fuel, energy, and supply chain disruption, observes GlobalData.

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Global inflation forecast to rise to 7.5% by the end of 2022, driven by food, fuel, energy, and supply chain disruption, observes GlobalData.

GlobalData has raised its global inflation rate forecast for the end of 2022 by 2.7 percentage points, reaching 7.5%*. The leading data and analytics company says the decision was driven by the cost-of-living crisis, soaring fuel and energy costs, and the global supply chain disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. The original forecast, made in February, expected an inflation rate of 4.8% by the end of 2022.

GlobalData’s Country Analytics database, reveals that the US Federal Reserve hiked its policy rate three times in the period January 2022 to June 2022, by a total of 225 basis points, to reach 2.25%—with further rate hikes anticipated in the coming months. Meanwhile, Brazil increased its key policy rate by 400 basis points*** (bps), India by 90 bps, Argentina by 1,200 bps, Russia by 100 bps, Canada by 125 bps, the UK by 100 bps, the UAE by 148 bps, and South Korea by 50 bps.

Bindi Patel, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “A Fed policy rate hike will make emerging markets a less attractive destination for investment. Consequently, emerging and developing economies are expected to be impacted the most, since they are not only facing high inflation rates but also a depreciation in their local currency—ultimately resulting in foreign direct investment outflows.”

Middle East

GlobalData forecasts the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region’s inflation rate to remain high at 18.7% in 2022, an upward revision from 10.9% in February 2022. Countries that are expected to witness the highest inflation rate increases in the region in 2022 are Türkiye (63.9%), Iran (32.8%), and Nigeria (16.9%). In June 2022, Saudi Arabia recorded an inflation rate of 2.3%, up from 2.2% in May 2022, due to a rise in the price of food (4.7%) and transport (2.5%).

Europe

In Europe, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the number of sanctions imposed on Russia have exacerbated pressures on already strained global supply chains. GlobalData has revised its 2022 inflation rate projections for Europe upward to 9.4% in July 2022. Ukraine (21.5%), Russia (16.9%), Poland (13.1%), the Czech Republic (14%), Belgium (8.9%), and the Netherlands (8%) are estimated to have the highest inflation level in the region in 2022, according to GlobalData.

Americas

The conflict in Ukraine is also forecast to drive inflation rates to record highs in the Americas’ largest economies, including the US (7.7%), Canada (6.7%), Brazil (9.6%), Argentina (59.3%), Chile (10%), and Colombia (8.8%) in 2022.

The increase in inflation was caused by a surge in food and energy prices. In June 2022, the inflation rate in the US was recorded at 9.1%, the highest since November 1981, driven by a rise in the prices of oil (98.5%), gasoline (59.9%), and food (10.4%).

GlobalData forecasts that the inflation rate in the Americas region is expected to rise to 7.5% by the end 2022, based on the forecast made in July 2022, which is a sharp upward revision from the 4.4% forecast, made in February 2022.

Asia-Pacific

The inflation rate in the Asia-Pacific region is forecast to rise to 6.6% in 2022, a 2.7 percentage point upward revision from its earlier forecast and a rise from 2.7% in 2021. Sri Lanka (29.7%), Turkmenistan (17.5%), and Mongolia (15.5%) are expected to have the highest inflation levels in the region in 2022. Inflation rate projections for India and China by the end of 2022 have been revised upward to 6.8% and 2.4%, respectively, from GlobalData’s earlier forecast of a respective 5.3% and 2.1%.

Inflation rate in Sri Lanka skyrocketed to 54.6% in June 2022, with the cost of food and transport rising by 80.1% and 128%, respectively, on an annual basis. India recorded an annual inflation rate of 7% due to a year-on-year (YoY) rise in the prices of food (7.8%) and fuel and electricity (10.4%).

Patel concludes: “Governments across the globe must focus on structural reforms to deliver growth in the medium term while maintaining tight control of monetary policy.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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