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Oil Drops Below $100 a Barrel Amid Recession Concerns

Global oil prices plunged on Wednesday as concerns over demand outweighed supply concerns. Energy investors fear recession would hurt demand regardless of current supply challenges being faced by the OPEC and allies due to Russian sanctions.

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Global oil prices plunged on Wednesday as concerns over demand outweighed supply concerns. Energy investors fear recession would hurt demand regardless of current supply challenges being faced by the OPEC and allies due to Russian sanctions.

Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian crude, plunged from $114.70 a barrel on Monday to $98.49 a barrel on Wednesday before pulling back to $100.21 a barrel on Thursday at 1:57 am Nigerian time.

The U.S. West Intermediate Oil fell to $93.15 a barrel on Wednesday before paring losses to $95.13 per barrel on Thursday.

Both contracts recorded their largest daily drop since March on Tuesday on recession fears and other bearish pressures, which also kept a lid on Wednesday’s price rise.

Oil prices have seen a knock from a resurgent dollar, which is holding at a 20-year high against the euro and multi-month peaks against other major currencies.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually makes oil more expensive in other currencies, which could curb demand.

Renewed concerns of COVID-19 lockdowns across China could also cap oil price gains.

Adding to the downward pressure on prices, all oil and gas fields that were affected by a strike in Norway’s petroleum sector are expected to be back in full operation within a couple of days, Equinor said on Wednesday.

Norway’s government intervened to end the strike on Tuesday.

But analysts expect a quick resurgence in oil prices as supply tightness persists, pointing to front-month spreads which have held up despite Tuesday’s price fall.

Brent’s six-month market structure was in steep backwardation of $14.82 a barrel, little changed from the previous day. Backwardation exists when contracts for near-term delivery of oil are priced higher than those for later months.

“The price action overnight, with both contracts trading in near 15 dollar ranges, hints more at panic and forced liquidation, than a structural change in the tight supply-demand situation globally,” said Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at OANDA, adding that oil prices may be in danger of overshooting to the downside.

Meanwhile, Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which takes oil from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea via one of the world’s largest pipelines, has been told by a Russian court to suspend activity for 30 days, although sources said exports were still flowing.

Operations at Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz oilfield were not disrupted by an explosion on Wednesday and were continuing, the operator said, after the blast killed two workers and injured three.

 

 

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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