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Oil Price Rally as Major Producers Flag Capacity Limits

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Oil prices rallied for a third day on Tuesday as major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates looked unlikely to be able to boost output significantly, while political unrest in Libya and Ecuador added to supply concerns.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.8, or 1.6%, to $111.36 a barrel by 0644 GMT, extending a 1.8% gain in the previous session.

Brent crude futures climbed $1.9, or 1.7%, to $116.99, adding to a 1.7% rise in the previous session.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have been seen as the only two countries in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with spare capacity available to make up for lost Russian supply and weak output from other member nations.

“A seam of tight supply news bolstered the market. Two major producers, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are said to be at, or very close to, near‑term capacity limits,” Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Tobin Gorey said in a note.

UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Monday UAE was producing near maximum capacity based on its quota of 3.168 million barrels per day (bpd) under the agreement with OPEC and its allies, together called OPEC+.

His comments confirmed remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron who told U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Group of Seven nations meeting that the UAE was producing at maximum capacity and that Saudi Arabia could increase output by only 150,000 bpd, well below its nameplate spare capacity of around 2 million bpd.

Analysts also warned political unrest in Ecuador and Libya could tighten supply further.

Libya’s National Oil Corp said on Monday it might have to declare force majeure in the Gulf of Sirte area within the next three days unless production and shipping resume at oil terminals there.

Ecuador’s Energy Ministry said the country could suspend oil output completely within the next two days amid anti-government protests. The former OPEC country was pumping around 520,000 barrels per day before the protests.

Those factors underscore shortages in the market, which have led to a rebound this week, countering recession jitters that weighed on prices over the previous two weeks.

But analysts from Haitong Futures said market sentiment remains fragile with people waiting for clearer guidance for the next move and geopolitical factors in focus.

Leaders of the G7 are discussing a potential price cap on Russian oil that would hit President Vladimir Putin’s war chest while also lowering energy prices.

A French presidential official also called on global powers to explore all options to alleviate a Russian squeeze on energy supplies that has spiked prices, including talks with producing nations like Iran and Venezuela.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Italian Prosecutors Sentenced to Jail for Concealing Evidence in $1.3 Billion Nigerian Oilfield Case

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An Italian court has sentenced two Milan prosecutors, Fabio De Pasquale and Sergio Spadaro, to eight months imprisonment for concealing evidence in an alleged corruption case involving a $1.3 billion oilfield in Nigeria.

The court found the duo guilty after it was established that they failed to file documents that could have supported Eni’s defense in the trial.

Regarded as one of the energy industry’s most significant corruption trials, the case which involves Eni and Shell centered around the $1.3 billion acquisition of a Nigerian oilfield.

In 2020, the Nigerian government filed a case against Shell/SNUD and Eni asking for compensation in the sum of $1.3 billion over an Oil Prospecting License 245, also known as OPL 245.

The case which had dragged on for over a decade came to a halt when the Ministry of Justice withdrew its petition in an Italian Court in March 2024.

Meanwhile, an international Court in Italy had already declared Shell and its affiliate partners not guilty on all counts.

Nigeria also decided to “irrevocably” suspend any future legal claims in Italy against Eni, its affiliates, as well as present and former officers concerning rights related to the field.

Meanwhile, delivering judgement on the refusal of the prosecutors to tender evidence, the court stated that De Pasquale and Spadaro had omitted key evidence, including a video from a former Eni external lawyer that could have been favourable to the defence.

The court sitting in Brescia and has jurisdiction over judicial matters in Milan had listened to the argument of the prosecutors who accused De Pasquale and Spadaro of withholding evidence that could have influenced the outcome of the Eni-Shell trial, thereby infringing on the defendants’ rights.

Responding to the charges, the prosecutors’ lawyer sought a full acquittal, arguing that no explicit rule mandated the filing of documents by prosecutors in such cases.

In March 2021, a Milan court acquitted Eni, Shell, and all other defendants, despite criticisms of the prosecutors’ conduct.

Judges ruled that the two prosecutors had a legal duty to submit evidence that might have aided the defense. The lawyer did not offer immediate comments following the conviction.

Afterward, the Brescia court sentenced the duo to eight-month jail term as requested by the prosecutors.

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Oil Prices Plunge 4% as Ceasefire Talks Between Hezbollah and Israel Ease Tensions

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Oil prices dipped more than 4 percent on Tuesday following the news of a possible ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for Nigerian crude oil, declined $3.75, or 4.63 percent to settle at $77.18 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate(WTI) lost $3.57, or 4.63 percent to close at $73.57 a barrel.

The oil price rally began after Iran launched a missile barrage at Israel on October 1 and Israel swore to retaliate and said it was weighing its options including attacking Iran’s oil infrastructure.

Analysts also said an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure was unlikely and warned oil prices could face considerable downward pressure if Israel focuses on any other target.

However, it was reported that Hezbollah left the door open to a negotiated ceasefire after Israel raised the stakes in the conflict with its Iran-backed enemy by making new attacks in the south of Lebanon.

Prices also headed south when it became obvious that there have been no actual supply disruption in the Middle East.

Efforts at diplomacy continue with the US fearing the conflict could affect the wider, oil-producing Middle East. The return of Libya’s oil production and exports after more than a month of hiatus due to the political stalemate has also weighed on the prices.

The North African country’s crude oil and condensates have reached 1,133,133 barrels per day, according to the National Oil Corporation (NOC) on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, support could come as Hurricane Milton intensified into a Category 5 storm in the US on its way to Florida after forcing at least one oil and gas platform in the Gulf of Mexico to shut on Monday.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories in the US rose by a shocking 10.9 million barrels for the week ending October 4. For the week prior, the API reported a 1.5-million-barrel decrease in crude inventories.

So far this year, crude oil inventories have slumped by just 5 million barrels since the beginning of the year, according to API data.

Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.

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Oil Pushes Higher on Middle East Increasing War Possibility

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Increased risk of a region-wide Middle East war continued to push oil prices higher on Monday as Brent crude oil rose by $2.88, or 3.7 percent to settle at $80.93 per barrel.

Also, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced by $2.76, or 3.7 percent, to $77.14 per barrel.

This extends gains from last week where the international benchmark rose more than 8 percent and WTI advanced by more than 9 percent week-on-week, the most in more than a year.

This is after Iran’s October 1 missile barrage against Israel raised concerns that the response from Israel would aim at the country’s oil infrastructure.

Market analysts warned that oil prices could rise by another $3 to $5 per barrel.

The development continued on Monday as Iran-backed Hezbollah hit Israel’s third-largest city, Haifa.

Israel, meanwhile, looked poised to expand ground incursions into southern Lebanon on the first anniversary of the Gaza war that has spread conflict across the Middle East.

After a year of war, authorities have stated officially that 728 troops have been killed and 26,000 missiles have been fired at Israel, compared to over 40,000 killed in Gaza.

Some analysts have suggested that Israel could strike a key export artery for Iranian oil, among other oil and gas targets that the US has asked Israel to avoid.

US President Joe Biden said that if he were in Israel’s shoes, he would consider alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields.

An attack on Iranian energy facilities would not be Israel’s preferred course of action, JPMorgan commodities analysts wrote on Friday.

Iran is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ with production of around 3.2 million barrels per day or 3 per cent of global output.

Still, low levels of global oil inventories suggest that prices are set to be elevated until the conflict is resolved.

OPEC+ is due to start raising production in December after cutting in recent years to support prices because of weak global demand.

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