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Markets

Plenty of Action to Come

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Stock - Investors King

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

European stocks are making small gains again on Tuesday, benefiting from the relatively calm start to the week.

The US returns following the bank holiday weekend which could see activity pick up, with particular focus on what the various central bankers have to say. Jerome Powell’s testimony in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday will naturally be the highlight but in this rapidly changing environment, all views will have the potential to get things moving.

There’s no doubt that the next few days have far more on the calendar so investors may take the opportunity to breathe and take stock of the situation. It’s been a turbulent couple of weeks and the rest of the summer is likely to bring more of the same so these periods of reflection are welcome.

With that in mind, these small recoveries in stock markets shouldn’t provide any comfort. Everyone is hunting for the bottom but there’s a huge cloud of uncertainty over the outlook and the data isn’t yet showing any encouraging signs. Recession is increasingly becoming the base case and so equities are vulnerable to further losses.

Oil risks remain tilted to the upside

Oil prices are around 1% higher, continuing to recover from Friday’s sharp sell-off. The oil market remains extremely tight but it seems the rising threat of recession created a compelling argument for it to correct lower last week. There’s no doubt that a recession could help rebalance the market and pull prices lower but for many, that is not the base case. So any corrections are still likely to quickly see a flurry of buyers, as we’re now seeing.

In the same way that Chinese lockdowns slowed rallies in recent months, the increasing threat of recession could do similar over the summer. That said, the risks remain tilted to the upside as supply simply can’t keep up with demand.

Gold could be rangebound for a while

We’re still seeing plenty of indecision and choppiness in gold. It struggled to build on the momentum of last week’s surge and is now on course for a third day in the red. That’s not a particularly bearish signal, more a reflection of how the week has started in the markets. The absence of the US makes it hard to read too much into the moves until now.

The key level to the downside remains $1,800, with $1,870 the big test above. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the yellow metal fluctuate between these two levels for a while longer yet.

Bitcoin remains vulnerable

Bitcoin is holding on in there after breaking $20,000 over the weekend but despite breaking back above here early in the week, it remains highly vulnerable to another plunge below. I can’t imagine all of the negative headlines are behind us as far as the crypto industry is concerned and the wider financial market environment remains unfavourable.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Energy

Nigeria Sells $1 Billion Worth of Natural Gas to Portugal in 2022 – NNPC

The Federal Government of Nigeria has sold natural gas worth $1 billion to Portugal in 2022, according to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC).

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria has sold natural gas worth $1 billion to Portugal in 2022, according to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC).

Mele Kyari, the Chief Executive Officer, NNPC, was quoted as saying at the Nigeria-Portugal Business and Trade Forum attended by President Muhammadu Buhari.

The NNPC boss said Portugal has been purchasing Nigeria’s energy for decades now and explained that President Buhari is on a state visit to Portugal for the second United Nations Ocean Conference.

He said “President Muhammadu Buhari is on a state visit to Portugal for the second United Nations Ocean Conference.

“On the sidelines of the event, President Muhammadu Buhari is leading a high-level Nigerian business delegation to the Nigeria-Portugal Business & Trade Forum.

“On the President’s delegation is the CEO NNPC Ltd, Mallam Mele Kyari, who highlighted the age-long energy partnership between the two countries, stressing that Nigeria supplies 70 per cent of energy imports to the European nation.”

On its Twitter page, the NNPC further quoted Kyari as saying, “This year alone, we have sold over a billion-dollar worth of natural gas to Portugal.”

NNPC boss also noted that there were ample opportunities to grow the energy supply to Portugal.

He told participants at the forum that Nigeria had invested in critical infrastructure to ensure domestic gas availability and increase gas supply to the international market.

 

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Markets

Markets Today – Under Pressure, US Data, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

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By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

Stock markets have fallen heavily in June so it seems only fitting that they’re ending the month with big losses as reality continues to bite.

There’s no getting away from recession chat and while the heads of the Fed, ECB and BoE didn’t exactly fuel that during their panel discussion on Wednesday, they didn’t do anything to dispel it either. They all know that there’s a strong likelihood of recession this year or next and investors are increasingly accepting that fate as well.

There’s been a plethora of economic data from across Europe this morning, mostly tier two and three, and it was a bit of a mixed bag. The labour market figures, for example, remain strong with the anomaly being Germany but this was heavily distorted by the integration of Ukrainian refugees into the labour market. Underlying numbers remain in good shape even if across the bloc, employment growth is expected to slow.

It’s impossible to ignore the fact that households are being squeezed and we’re seeing that appear in the data, particularly in the UK which will probably fall into recession later this year. But it is unlikely to be alone in that which is why bear-market rallies are proving to be so short-lived.

US inflation boost but spending slips

US inflation data was unusually encouraging ahead of the open. Perhaps that’s getting a little carried away but it didn’t deliver another crushing below so maybe this feeling is actually relief rather than joy. The core reading was a little better than expected at 0.3%, in line with April, while the headline also fell a little short of expectations at 0.6%.

The income and spending data were arguably less encouraging. Earnings rose 0.5% as expected, a slight acceleration from April, while spending rose only 0.2%, a big drop from 0.9% a month earlier and half the forecast. Another sign of the squeeze taking a toll on households? The US economy is among the best positioned to fend off a recession but it’s not completely immune to the cost-of-living crisis. It may be catching up.

Oil lower as OPEC+ sticks to August target

Oil prices are modestly lower on Thursday, further paring recent gains following yesterday’s reversal. As expected, OPEC+ stuck to its planned 648,000 barrel increase in August and refrained from any decision beyond then which could add an element of uncertainty to future targets, particularly given recent reports that even Saudi Arabia and UAE are running near capacity.

The global economic uncertainty doesn’t make planning ahead any easier, either. The prospect of a recession has created more two-way price action in recent weeks, preventing any unsustainable surges in the price of crude as China reopened and the OPEC+ deficit increased. ​

Gold slightly buoyed by inflation data

Gold has been trending lower over the last couple of weeks but remains in its early summer range between $1,800 and $1,870. It’s really struggled for direction over the last couple of months despite the volatility in the broader financial markets. It has been like a deer in the headlights, unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation, faster monetary tightening and recession fears.

It received a boost from the slightly softer PCE reading from the US, a rare bit of good news when it comes to inflation data. It’s not exactly a massive win, especially when paired with weak spending but it could be worse. Yields fell a little after the data, enabling gold to get back into positive territory for a while.

Bitcoin crumbling

Bitcoin has been hanging on in there around $20,000 but its resilience may finally be crumbling under pressure, with the cryptocurrency sliding more than 5% today to trade at around $19,000. This could be really bad news for the crypto space and may even trigger much more severe declines in the coming weeks.

The forced liquidation of Three Arrows Capital may have contributed to the latest decline as traders are left to wonder what other leveraged firms will follow in its footsteps. The fear alone could deliver another hammer blow to crypto valuations before the dust settles.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Sustain Bullish Run for Fourth Consecutive Session

Global oil prices appreciated for a fourth consecutive session after it became clear OPEC and allies can not meet their production targets any time soon.

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Global oil prices appreciated for a fourth consecutive session after it became clear OPEC and allies can not meet their production targets any time soon.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, appreciated to $120 a barrel as of 3:20 pm Nigerian time on Wednesday. Representing an increase of $12 from $108 a barrel traded a week ago.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $112.37 per barrel, up from $99.33 per barrel a week ago.

The increase in prices was a result of sanctions imposed on about 1/5 of global supply by western nations. Russia, one of the world’s largest crude oil producers, was sanctioned for waging war against Ukraine, and eventually, disrupting the global economy.

“Given that almost 1/5 of global oil producing capacity today is under some form of sanctions (Iran, Venezuela, Russia), we believed there is no practical way to keep these barrels out of a market that was already exceptionally tight,” JP Morgan said in a research note.

This concern over global supply outweighed worries about a weaker global economy ahead of the projected economic recession in developed nations, especially with developed economies raising interest rates to curb escalating inflation numbers.

“Investors made position adjustments, but remained bullish on expectations that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would not be able to raise output significantly to meet recovering demand, driven by a pick-up in jet fuels,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities.

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