Connect with us

Markets

Risk Aversion Sweeps Across Europe

Published

on

capital market - Investors King

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

We’re seeing no shortage of risk-aversion in European markets at the end of the week while US futures are treading water ahead of the hotly anticipated inflation data.

European stocks are suffering an ECB hangover as a hawkish Christine Lagarde warned about the danger of inflation and the need to act straight away. Well, almost straight away. In July, actually, because inflation poses an immediate risk but as with the Fed earlier this year, it’s not urgent enough to break a promise on gradually phasing out bond-buying while leaving a gap between the end of net asset purchases and rate hikes. Policymakers have strange priorities at times.

But that’s fine because then in September and probably October, they can raise rates by 50 basis points as a result of unforeseen pressures and at some point acknowledge they should have moved sooner. That would be easier to stomach if the ECB, like the rest of us, hadn’t watched all year while its peers followed the same playbook to their own detriment. It’s no wonder investors have thrown in the towel.

Will the CPI data deliver another blow?

The Fed has already embarked on its first of many super-sized rate hikes and today’s inflation data may offer some insight into how many are going to be required. There was an immense disappointment last month when the CPI data didn’t fall as far from the peak as expected. That may be a blip but another one or two higher than forecast prints may deliver a serious blow to investors, the Fed and ultimately the economy.

It’s been a year of disappointment on the inflation front as prices have risen much faster and further than anyone expected and become more ingrained in the economy. A slower deceleration on top of that will feed the recessionary fears and stock markets could suffer the consequences.

Hard to make a bearish case for oil

Oil prices are continuing to rise at the end of the week, as extreme tightness in the market was compounded by the US driving season, Norwegian oil strikes this weekend and a near-fatal blow to the Iranian nuclear deal. The gains could have been more significant if not for a setback in the reopening of Shanghai as fresh restrictions and mass testing were undertaken.

It’s hard to make a bearish case for oil prices at the minute and OPEC+ has shown itself incapable of making a difference. Those that can pump more are holding back while others are being given higher quotas they simply can’t fulfil. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to march higher.

Gold slips ahead of inflation data

Gold is slipping a little ahead of the US inflation data but remains well within the range of recent weeks. Today could be the day it breaks out with all eyes on the CPI reading. A stronger reading would be a massive blow to risk appetite and be seen as further evidence of the job the Fed has to get price pressures under control. Which means yields could jump again along with the dollar, pressuring the yellow metal. A weaker reading could deliver the opposite.

Wake up, bitcoin

Bitcoin is still trading around $30,000 and I’m sure crypto traders will be hoping for an inflation surprise one way or another in order to jolt bitcoin back to life. We’ve had brief spurts of volatility but it’s barely moved from $30,000 for the last month.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Energy

Port-Harcourt Refinery Set to Commence Operations by July End, IPMAN Discloses

Published

on

oil refinery

The Port-Harcourt refinery with a capacity of 210,000 barrels per day, is poised to begin operations by the end of July.

This announcement comes after several postponements and delays that have plagued the refinery’s revival efforts.

Chief Ukadike Chinedu, the National Public Relations Officer of the Independent Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), revealed this optimistic timeline on Monday.

According to Chinedu, the refinery’s revival is expected to stimulate economic activities, reduce petroleum product prices, and ensure adequate supply in the market.

The refinery, located in Port-Harcourt, comprises two units: an older plant with a refined capacity of 60,000 barrels per day and a newer plant with a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day.

Despite previous setbacks and delays, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, announced the mechanical completion and flare start-off of the refinery in December last year.

However, the refinery’s journey to resuming operations has been marked by challenges and setbacks. It shut down in March 2019 for the first phase of repair works, following the government’s engagement of technical advisors to oversee the refurbishment process.

Despite assurances from NNPC Limited’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, in March 2024, stating that operations would commence within two weeks, the refinery faced further delays.

In an exclusive interview, Chinedu emphasized the extensive turnaround undertaken at the refinery, suggesting a complete overhaul rather than mere rehabilitation.

He expressed confidence in meeting the July deadline, citing round-the-clock efforts to ensure readiness for operations.

While acknowledging previous delays, Chinedu remained optimistic about the refinery’s imminent revival, emphasizing its potential to enhance competition in the petroleum sector and reduce product prices.

He pointed out that the refinery’s operationalization aligns with the impending commencement of petrol production by the Dangote Refinery, further emphasizing the potential benefits for Nigeria’s energy landscape.

However, Femi Soneye, the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC Limited, highlighted regulatory approvals from international bodies as the remaining hurdle to the refinery’s operational commencement.

Soneye reiterated that mechanical completion had been achieved, with all necessary infrastructure in place, awaiting regulatory clearance to commence operations.

As Nigeria navigates its energy transition and seeks to bolster local refining capacity, the imminent revival of the Port-Harcourt refinery signifies a significant milestone towards achieving energy sufficiency and economic growth.

With hopes pinned on the July deadline, stakeholders remain vigilant, anticipating the refinery’s long-awaited resurgence.

Continue Reading

Commodities

Nigeria Spends $2.13bn on Food Imports in 2023

Published

on

Commodities Exchange

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disbursed $2.13 billion for food imports in 2023.

This disclosure raises concerns about the nation’s ability to achieve self-sufficiency in food production.

Despite being touted as the “food basket of Africa,” Nigeria continues to rely heavily on imported food commodities.

The CBN’s quarterly statistics revealed a consistent demand for foreign currencies for food imports throughout the year.

The significant forex release for food imports stands in stark contrast to efforts by the Nigerian government to boost local agricultural production and reduce dependence on imports.

Factors such as inadequate infrastructure, insecurity, and climate change have hindered progress in the agricultural sector, leaving the nation vulnerable to fluctuations in global food prices.

A breakdown of the disbursements shows varying amounts allocated each month, with notable spikes observed in March and November.

Despite initiatives aimed at promoting local production, including the ban on food imports by the Federal Government, the nation’s appetite for foreign food products remains unabated.

The rise in food prices has also been a cause for concern, with the average price of imported food commodities reaching a 34% increase between April 2023 and April 2024.

This surge in prices has contributed to food inflation in Nigeria and across sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the region’s vulnerability to global market dynamics.

Experts warn that Nigeria’s heavy reliance on food imports poses significant risks to its economy and food security.

Despite efforts to promote local production, challenges such as insecurity and inadequate infrastructure continue to impede progress in the agricultural sector.

Commenting on the issue, Kabir Ibrahim, the National President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, acknowledged that Nigeria has made strides in reducing its dependence on certain food items but expressed concern over the increasing trend in food imports.

He highlighted the challenges faced by farmers, including insecurity and flooding, which have affected food production and contributed to the rising import bill.

Yusuf Muda, the Managing Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, emphasized the need for accurate data to assess Nigeria’s food import dependency accurately.

He called for a comprehensive analysis of the types of food imported and their contribution to the nation’s food consumption.

As Nigeria grapples with the challenges of food security and economic stability, addressing the root causes of its reliance on food imports remains a critical priority.

Efforts to strengthen the agricultural sector, improve infrastructure, and mitigate climate change impacts are essential for achieving long-term food security and economic resilience.

Continue Reading

Crude Oil

NNPCL CEO Optimistic as Nigeria’s Oil Production Edges Closer to 1.7mbpd

Published

on

Crude Oil

Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), has expressed optimism as the nation’s oil production approaches 1.7 million barrels per day (mbpd).

Kyari’s positive outlook comes amidst ongoing efforts to address security challenges and enhance infrastructure crucial for oil production and distribution.

Speaking at a stakeholders’ engagement between the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) and NNPCL in Lagos, Kyari highlighted the significance of combating insecurity in the oil and gas sector to facilitate increased production.

Kyari said there is a need for substantial improvements in infrastructure to support oil production.

He noted that Nigeria’s crude oil production has been hampered by pipeline vandalism, prompting alternative transportation methods like barging and trucking of petroleum products, which incur additional costs and logistical challenges.

Despite these challenges, Kyari revealed that Nigeria’s oil production is steadily rising, presently approaching 1.7mbpd.

He attributed this progress to ongoing efforts to combat pipeline vandalism and enhance infrastructure resilience.

Kyari stressed the importance of taking control of critical infrastructure to ensure uninterrupted oil production and distribution.

One of the key projects highlighted by Kyari is the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline, which plays a crucial role in enhancing gas supply infrastructure.

He noted that completing the final phase of the AKK pipeline, particularly the 2.7 km river crossing, would facilitate the flow of gas from the eastern to the western regions of Nigeria, supporting industrial growth and energy security.

Addressing industry stakeholders, including NAPE representatives, Kyari reiterated the importance of collaboration in advancing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

He emphasized the need for technical training, data availability, and policy incentives to drive innovation and growth in the industry.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending