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Africa’s Recovery Remains Uneven; More Resources Are Needed -African Development Bank Report

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African Development Bank - Investors King

An African Development Bank report released Thursday shows that the institution was pivotal in 2021, delivering timely investments that are helping millions of Africans overcome the unprecedented challenges caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Published annually for the past 12 years, the Annual Development Effectiveness Review analyses the Bank’s role in Africa’s development. It monitors the Bank’s contribution to the High 5s: Light Up and Power Africa, Feed Africa, Industrialise Africa, Integrate Africa, and Improve the Quality of Life for the People of Africa.

Titled “Returning Africa to its Development Path,” the 2022 edition of the report notes that the Bank Group pressed ahead with its projects in 2021 despite shutdowns, supply chain disruptions, and a global economic slump. Across the continent, the Bank’s investments expanded access to electricity, improved transport, boosted agricultural productivity, fuelled industrialization, and integrated regions.

According to the report, however, economic recovery remains uneven and fragile, even as the easing of Covid-19 restrictions has put many regions of the continent back on a growth trajectory. The report estimates that continued vulnerabilities and new health measures pushed an additional 30 million Africans into extreme poverty in 2021. By the end of the year, the Bank had spent $4 billion underwriting countries’ efforts to rapidly scale up Covid testing, train health workers, provide households with social support, and supply businesses with finance.

But the pandemic, and its far-reaching consequences, is not the only crisis facing the continent today. African countries are also grappling with the climate crisis, insecurity in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, and the impact of the war in Ukraine, particularly its impact on food prices. Investments need to accelerate.

The report’s scorecard shows results in every sector. In energy, for example, Bank investments made possible the installation of 294 km of new or improved power transmission lines and 456 km of power distribution lines. As a result, around 1.3 million people received new electricity connections.

“They say that in every crisis, lies an opportunity,” remarked Simon Mizrahi, director of the Development Impact and Results Department. “Africa, and the Bank, showed remarkable resilience again last year. For example, the Annual Development Effectiveness Review calculates that our projects provided more than 12 million people with access to safe water and sanitation in 2021. This was three times more than our target. And our investments in the private sector supplied more than 130,000 micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises with financial services—double our target, to the benefit of 3.4 million people.”

“We are pleased with the results, and the Bank’s teams have a lot to be proud of,” Mizrahi continued. “But the report also motivates us to reach higher, in the most ambitious way possible, so that more Africans can thrive.”

In a foreword to the report, Bank Group President Akinwumi Adesina observed that despite remarkable progress last year, the continent needs more resources now than ever.

“African countries must manage climate change, prepare for future health emergencies, and deal with the prospects of a global food crisis,” Adesina said. “With just eight years left to achieve the sustainable development goals, we need more ambitious plans for mobilizing resources for Africa’s development.”

Adesina called on Africa’s partners worldwide to join the African Development Bank in embracing a bolder vision for financing the continent’s development.

“Africa will not be defined by challenges, but by its ability to overcome challenges. Together, we will put Africa back on a sound trajectory for resilient growth and development,” Adesina said.

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Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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