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Africa’s Recovery Remains Uneven; More Resources Are Needed -African Development Bank Report

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African Development Bank - Investors King

An African Development Bank report released Thursday shows that the institution was pivotal in 2021, delivering timely investments that are helping millions of Africans overcome the unprecedented challenges caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Published annually for the past 12 years, the Annual Development Effectiveness Review analyses the Bank’s role in Africa’s development. It monitors the Bank’s contribution to the High 5s: Light Up and Power Africa, Feed Africa, Industrialise Africa, Integrate Africa, and Improve the Quality of Life for the People of Africa.

Titled “Returning Africa to its Development Path,” the 2022 edition of the report notes that the Bank Group pressed ahead with its projects in 2021 despite shutdowns, supply chain disruptions, and a global economic slump. Across the continent, the Bank’s investments expanded access to electricity, improved transport, boosted agricultural productivity, fuelled industrialization, and integrated regions.

According to the report, however, economic recovery remains uneven and fragile, even as the easing of Covid-19 restrictions has put many regions of the continent back on a growth trajectory. The report estimates that continued vulnerabilities and new health measures pushed an additional 30 million Africans into extreme poverty in 2021. By the end of the year, the Bank had spent $4 billion underwriting countries’ efforts to rapidly scale up Covid testing, train health workers, provide households with social support, and supply businesses with finance.

But the pandemic, and its far-reaching consequences, is not the only crisis facing the continent today. African countries are also grappling with the climate crisis, insecurity in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, and the impact of the war in Ukraine, particularly its impact on food prices. Investments need to accelerate.

The report’s scorecard shows results in every sector. In energy, for example, Bank investments made possible the installation of 294 km of new or improved power transmission lines and 456 km of power distribution lines. As a result, around 1.3 million people received new electricity connections.

“They say that in every crisis, lies an opportunity,” remarked Simon Mizrahi, director of the Development Impact and Results Department. “Africa, and the Bank, showed remarkable resilience again last year. For example, the Annual Development Effectiveness Review calculates that our projects provided more than 12 million people with access to safe water and sanitation in 2021. This was three times more than our target. And our investments in the private sector supplied more than 130,000 micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises with financial services—double our target, to the benefit of 3.4 million people.”

“We are pleased with the results, and the Bank’s teams have a lot to be proud of,” Mizrahi continued. “But the report also motivates us to reach higher, in the most ambitious way possible, so that more Africans can thrive.”

In a foreword to the report, Bank Group President Akinwumi Adesina observed that despite remarkable progress last year, the continent needs more resources now than ever.

“African countries must manage climate change, prepare for future health emergencies, and deal with the prospects of a global food crisis,” Adesina said. “With just eight years left to achieve the sustainable development goals, we need more ambitious plans for mobilizing resources for Africa’s development.”

Adesina called on Africa’s partners worldwide to join the African Development Bank in embracing a bolder vision for financing the continent’s development.

“Africa will not be defined by challenges, but by its ability to overcome challenges. Together, we will put Africa back on a sound trajectory for resilient growth and development,” Adesina said.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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