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Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Africa Faces High Risk of Food Insecurity – ECA

War between Russia and Ukraine will have a major impact on food insecurity in Africa

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Agriculture - Investors King

The United Nations Economic Commission of Africa (UNECA) has revealed that the war between Russia and Ukraine will have a major impact on food insecurity in Africa, as the two countries provide 30 percent of the world’s wheat and barley needs.

During the 54th session of the ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance, the Director, Sub-Regional Office for Southern (SRO-SA) Planning and Economic Development, Eunice G. Kamwendo disclosed that the continent faces a high risk of food insecurity because Russia and Ukraine are major global suppliers of agricultural commodities such as maize, wheat, oils and fertilizers to Africa.

“The two countries, combined, provide 30 percent of the world’s wheat and barley needs; supply nearly one-fifth of maize globally, and account for over half of the global market share in sunflower oil, among other commodities.

“According to estimates by the African Development Bank, the region’s GDP contracted by as much as 6.3 percent in 2020, compared to a 2.1 percent recession for the rest of Africa”, she said.

She further stated that African countries are most affected by the pandemic and the combined impact of the COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis are likely to further aggravate liquidity issues constraining recovery. She added that as a region, Southern Africa contracted the most out of all the sub-regions in Africa due to Covid-19.

With the disruption of supplies arising from the war in Ukraine, Africa is facing a shortage of at least 30 million metric tonnes of food, especially wheat, maize, and soybeans imported from  Ukraine and Russia.

Before the war in Ukraine, countries in East, West, Middle, and Southern Africa, including Angola, Cameroon, Kenya, and Nigeria, were already grappling with soaring food prices due to extreme climate and weather events, such as floods, landslides, and droughts, and the Covid-19 pandemic, which disrupted production efforts and global supply chains.

Since Russia’s invasion, global food prices have reached another level. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index, global prices of food increased by  12.6 percent from February to March.

Investors King recalls that Human Rights Watch (HRW), in its April publication, had earlier said that many countries in East, West, Middle, and Southern Africa rely on Russia and Ukraine for a significant percentage of their wheat, fertilizer, or vegetable oils imports. However, the war disrupted global commodity markets and trade flows to Africa, increasing already high food prices in these regions.

“Even countries that import little from the two countries are indirectly impacted by higher world prices for key commodities,” HRW noted.

In addition, senior researcher on poverty and inequality at HRW, Lena Simet said: “Many countries in Africa were already in a food crisis. Rising prices are compounding the plight of millions of people thrown into poverty by the Covid-19 pandemic, requiring urgent action by governments and the international community.”

According to the March Food Prices Watch released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the average price of one bottle of Groundnut oil stood at N994.62 in March 2022, an increase of 46.00 percent from N681.23 in March 2021.

Also, the prepackaged wheat flour (golden penny 2kg) increased year on year (YoY) from N766.11 to N1,021.66 (35.99 percent increase) and from N1,021.66 to N1,041.82 on Month on Month (MoM) basis, a 1.97 percent increase. Imported high-quality rice (loose) sold at N544.21 in March 2021 and at N607.68 in March 2022 (YoY), an increase of 11.66 percent. It increased by 2.16% from N594.80 in February 2022  to N607.68 in March 20222.

Under the global and African human rights laws everyone has the right to sufficient and adequate food. To protect this right, governments are obligated to enact policies and initiate programmes to ensure that everyone can afford safe and nutritious food.

In view of this, Ghanaian investment banker and Minister for Finance and Economic Planning, Ken Ofori-Atta has called for the nation’s partnership with the African Development Bank for the development of the continent.

Ofor-Atta added that the plan is to provide certified seeds of climate-adapted varieties to 20 million African farmers, which would see a rapid production of 38 million tonnes of food across Africa over the next two years.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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