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More Traction Needed in Agriculture

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Agriculture - Investors King

The latest national accounts released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that the agriculture sector grew by 2.1% y/y in FY ’21, compared with 2.2% in 2020. Crop production accounted for 90% of agriculture GDP, and expanded by 2.3% y/y. We also note thatthe forestry, livestock and fishing segments grew by 1.4% y/y, 0.6% and 1.2% y/y respectively. Agriculture accounts for c.26% of Nigeria’s total GDP and employs twothirds of the labour force. Over the past eight quarters, the sector has grown by 2.1% y/y on average.

The agricultural sector has been a beneficiary of substantial credit interventions by the CBN and state-owned development banks. At its last MPC meeting, the CBN disclosed that as at end-February ’22, total disbursements under the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme (ABP) amounted to N975.6bn to a total of c.4.5 million smallholder farmers across the country. The total disbursements under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) amounted to N735.2bn for 671 projects in agro-production and agro-processing.

The issue of a large informal economy is one reason for the misalignment between the growth figures recorded in this sector and intervention efforts. While agriculture has benefited from both policy continuity and several FGN/CBN credit interventions, its pace of growth has been slow as lack of access to finance also continues to pose as a challenge for the sector.

Based on data from the CBN, credit to the agricultural sector was 6.0% of total credit to the private sector in 2021, compared with sectors such as oil and gas (23.3%), manufacturing (16.8%), finance, insurance and capital market (7.0%) and trade/general commerce (7.0%).

There is a need for financial institutions to diversify products and services for active players across the agricultural value chain. This should boost returns and profitability of agricultural activities.

The unresolved insecurity challenges still undercut the FGN’s return on investments in the sector. Disruptions in agricultural supply chains are occasioned by bandits and herdsmen in food-producing areas of the country. Other structural challenges include output losses due to poor storage and logistics. To reduce post-harvest losses, the FGN could assist with linking smallholder farmers to markets, provide training on postharvest management and the use of technology, as well as promote innovative mechanisms to facilitate alternative ways of transporting agricultural output.

As for supply chain linkages within the sector, Nigeria focuses heavily on agricultural output, neglecting the processing and manufacturing segment of the value chain. We note that shortages of resources, lack of financing and inefficient transport systems disrupt the development of food production along the value and supply chain.

Turning to the fertilizer space, in March ‘22, the Dangote fertiliser plant located in Lagos was launched. The 3MT fertiliser plant, occupies 500 hectares of land and is regarded as Africa’s largest granulated fertiliser complex. According to the World Bank, Nigeria has the lowest fertiliser applications in Africa at 20 kilogrammes per hectare, lagging behind Egypt and South Africa.

Nigeria’s fertiliser demand is expected to range between 5 -7 million metric tonnes in the coming years. The newly launched Dangote fertiliser plant could potentially reduce the supply gap, which is currently covered by importation.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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