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Stocks Tumble Ahead of Big Tech Earnings

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By Edward Moya

US stocks are declining as Wall Street abandons the tech trade ahead of massive tech ​ earnings later this week and as global slowdown fears remain front and center as aggressive central bank tightening jitters won’t go away.  Inflation won’t let up anytime soon as the Russian headlines suggest the war in Ukraine could see further escalations, which means inflation won’t ease up and that will continue to drive central bank tightening fears.

Earnings

The earnings blitz is beginning and overall it was not a good start.  GE was down sharply as their full-year guidance was towards the low end.  UPS saw lower volumes but still affirmed its guidance as they will pass on cost increases to the consumer. Pepsico posted strong results and raised its guidance, but shares were unable to shake off the risk-off theme hitting markets today.  3M showed sequential margin improvement but had a slow start to April and had to lower their outlook for the year.

The morning’s earnings picture showed price increases are weighing on businesses and costs are being passed onto the consumer. Alphabet will be the first major tech giant to report after the close, but it will be a tough quarter when compared to robust one last year. ​ Everyone is expecting strong search and YouTube ads results, but the key to how share prices react might fall on the other revenue streams.

Oil

Oil is making a comeback as energy traders focus on tightness in the diesel markets and shift the focus back to Russian energy supplies and the rising danger of nuclear war in Ukraine.  Earlier crude prices got a boost after China’s PBOC stepped up efforts to calm markets and as energy traders await China’s mass COVID testing results, which could lead to even more lockdowns.

The oil market has priced in enough demand destruction from China and crude prices should start to find strong support around the $100 level.

Gold

Gold prices are trying to find support here now that China’s PBOC is stepping up efforts to support the economy and as the move higher with yields continues to show signs of exhaustion.  Gold investors are hoping prices can hold the $1900 level heading into next week’s FOMC decision, but if risk aversion remains the dominant theme that won’t happen.

Gold is trading more like a risky asset right now than as a safe-haven and that leaves it vulnerable here.  If the war in Ukraine sees further escalations, that could be the catalyst to send prices sharply lower.

Crytpo

Bitcoin was tentatively back above the $40,000 level as Wall Street became more optimistic with the long-term outlook for cryptocurrencies after reports that Fidelity Investments will allow Bitcoin into 401(k)s. What also helped Bitcoin this morning is that the dollar rally is holding steady alongside Treasuries.

Bitcoin reversed lower as risk aversion returned to Wall Street, with tech stocks leading the decline. Russia’s suspension of gas supplies to Poland sent risky assets, including Bitcoin sharply lower. ​ ​ ​

Ethereum was showing signs of life hovering back above the $3000 level.  Ethereum investors will become more aggressive with their bets if they feel more confident the upgrade to proof-of-stake system has less road bumps ahead. Ethereum also turned negative and will continue to follow what happens on Wall Street. ​ ​

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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