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Markets Today – Tesla, Fed, ECB, BoE, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

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Traders Wall Street

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

Stock markets are pushing higher again on Thursday, with the Nasdaq this time taking part after Tesla reported strong numbers for the first quarter.

The doom and gloom following Netflix’s earnings report didn’t last long in another sign of investor resilience to bouts of negativity. Of course, it’s worth noting that it came in what has otherwise been a strong start to earnings season, something Tesla on Wednesday contributed to as it shrugged off the various challenges it’s facing from chip shortages to Chinese lockdowns.

The Tesla numbers really were very encouraging despite the incredibly challenging environment for automakers. Higher revenue, earnings and delivery forecasts are all music to the ears of investors and even the long waiting lists highlight just how much demand there is for a Tesla, despite the long wait time.

Powell, Lagarde and Bailey comments eyed

The primary focus for investors right now continues to be what central banks are doing and whether their efforts will bring inflation back to a more acceptable level. They’re moving at very different speeds; in the BoJ’s case, they’re effectively going in reverse. But slowly but surely, most are heading in the same direction and picking up the pace.

Commentary from policymakers has become increasingly hawkish recently, most notably in the case of the Fed and ECB. Both heads – Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde – will appear at an IMF forum today, while the BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is due to speak in Washington.

Considering some of the comments we’ve had in recent days from some of the more hawkish members of the various committees, it will be interesting to see just how much those views are shared across them.

Oil higher as EU nears Russian ban

Oil prices are heading higher again, up more than 2%, as reports suggest the EU is nearing a framework for phasing out Russian oil imports. Given how big a market it is for Russia, accounting for roughly half its exports, that will come as a real blow to the Kremlin. Except for the fact that the devil will be in the detail and I suspect it won’t be the hammer blow that it appears at first sight.

Germany has suggested it will half its Russian oil imports by the summer and end them by the end of the year. While replacing such a massive partner won’t be easy, that does buy it time to explore alternative markets, albeit probably at a steep discount. Oil is also only one major source of revenue for Russia; there’s still little talk of gas embargos which would really hurt the Kremlin.

Still, oil prices are creeping higher again but remain pretty much in the middle of the range they’ve traded within for the last month.

Gold slips as yields continue higher

Yields are creeping higher again amid a raft of hawkish commentary from a variety of central banks that appears to be paving the way for increasingly aggressive action in the month ahead. This appears to be weighing on gold which has slipped back below $1,950 after a strong rally earlier this month.

Perhaps the rally was driven by higher inflation expectations and the hawkish commentary is addressing those concerns. It’s a fine balancing act when so many are questioning whether the Fed can manufacture the soft landing it desires. Time will tell whether this optimism will pay off.

Can bitcoin build on recent momentum?

Bitcoin is enjoying a fourth day of gains just after it survived a break of a potentially key support level. The resilience shown to the move below $40,000 was impressive and potentially indicative of the remaining bullishness in the space, despite the uncertainty elsewhere. The Nasdaq has had a more turbulent week which bitcoin has managed to shrug off; maybe a sign of it distancing itself from the link between the performance of the two. Whether it can sustain that we’ll see as there’s one thing both still have in common, they’re viewed as risky assets, albeit with bitcoin very much at the higher end of the scale.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Crude Oil

Nigerian Army Seizes 700,000 Liters of Stolen Petroleum in Sweeping Raid Across Four States

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In a series of raids across Rivers, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Delta states, troops from the 6th Division of the Nigerian Army seized 700,000 liters of stolen petroleum products, sealed 29 illegal refining sites, and arrested 24 suspected oil thieves.

In a statement issued by the Division’s Public Relations Officer, Lt. Col. Danjuma Jonah, it was noted that 14 boats involved in crude oil theft were also destroyed during the operation.

Jonah disclosed that the raids were conducted between October 28 and November 3, 2024.

He revealed that the troops intercepted a large wooden boat carrying over 150,000 liters of stolen crude oil in the Kula area of Akuku-Toru Local Government Area of Rivers State.

Providing a breakdown of the operation, Jonah stated, “Another boat carrying 50,000 liters of crude oil was seized, while three illegal refining sites were dismantled, and cooking pots containing 20,000 liters of stolen diesel were confiscated. Troops also dismantled ten illegal refining sites in Kay and Abesa in Akuku-Toru LGA, seizing 400,000 liters of illegally refined diesel.”

In Bayelsa State, soldiers deactivated two illegal refining sites at Boma Creek in Southern Ijaw LGA, recovering storage tanks holding over 2,500 liters of stolen crude. Similarly, operations in Obughene Creek in Southern Ijaw yielded over 4,500 liters of stolen crude, while another 3,000 liters of illicit product were seized at West Boma Creek.

In Akwa Ibom State, troops intercepted two Toyota Camrys loaded with illegally refined diesel, concealed in nylon bags, totaling 3,000 liters. The vehicles were stopped along the Ikot Abasi-Abak road, and the drivers were detained.

In Delta State, multiple raids were conducted, including the interception of a tricycle in Kwale, Ndokwa West LGA, carrying stolen iron pipes allegedly taken from decommissioned Oando pipelines.

Another raid in Patani town uncovered a storage dump containing 40 jerricans of stolen products, while troops patrolling Uro Community waterways intercepted a wooden boat with 200 sacks of premium motor spirit,” he concluded.

The statement added that suspects arrested during the raids have been handed over to relevant authorities for prosecution.

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Crude Oil

OPEC+ Supply, Trump-Harris Election Face Off Lend Support to Oil Prices

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Crude oil

The decision of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ to delay plans to increase output for another month and the close call of the presidential elections in the United States triggered a 2 percent rise in oil prices.

Brent futures were up $1.98, or 2.7 percent at $75.08 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.98, or 2.85 percent to $71.47.

OPEC+ said it would extend its output cut of 2.2 million barrels per day for another month in December at a meeting on Sunday.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) agreed to extend the November 2023 voluntary production adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day for one month until the end of December 2024.

The move is aimed at boosting oil prices amid uncertain demand and accelerating supply, with an eye on the imminent US presidential election, though analysts predict a limited impact.

Also speaking on Monday, OPEC’s Secretary General, Mr Haitham Al Ghais said on Monday that OPEC remains very positive on demand for oil in both the short and long term.

The market has also shifted focus to the American presidential election between Democratic presidential nominee and current Vice President, Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump on Tuesday (November 5).

So far, the outcome has shown that the election is tight as it could take days after voting ends to know the eventual winner.

The market will also be looking at the developments in the Middle East, especially with anticipation that Iran was preparing to attack Israel from Iraq within days.

Markets were also watching a new tropical storm that was forecast to form on Monday in the Caribbean and threaten offshore oil production along the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil companies like Shell have moved its non-essential personnel from six platforms, adding it currently expects no other impacts on its production across the Gulf of Mexico.

There will be anticipation of what the US Federal Reserve will do at the next meeting on Thursday with expectations high that the US central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

Also, investors will be looking to China where the government is expected to approve additional stimulus to boost the slowing economy in the world’s largest oil importer.

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Commodities

Agric Industries Take Interest In Unlocking Nigeria’s $10bn Palm Oil Export Potential

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palm oil

Some agric-focused industries and firms have indicated interest in enhancing Nigeria’s agricultural productivity and competitiveness through the nation’s $10 billion palm oil export potential.

At the launch of a new report by a research and advisory firm, Vestance, significant untapped opportunities within Nigeria’s oil palm sector were revealed.

Discussing how the nation could regain its lost glory in palm oil production and exportation, stakeholders in the sector emphasised the need for government agencies, private sector investors, smallholder farmers, research institutions, and development partners to work together to help change the narratives in the palm oil sector.

Titled “Reclaiming Lost Glory: Nigeria’s Palm Oil Renaissance,” the report, which was unveiled in Lagos disclosed that Nigeria, despite being a major producer historically, currently exports only $1.34 million in palm oil, ranking 78th globally, while importing $372 million annually

Vestance’s Research Lead, Razaq Fatai, said the report illustrates the immense opportunities lying dormant in the country’s underutilised oil palm plantations, noting that by capitalising and rejuvenating these plantations, Nigeria could generate over $10 billion in export revenue alone.

He explained that Nigeria’s palm oil production began to decline during the country’s civil war between 1967 and 1970, saying, it is now time to begin to reverse the decline and put the sector back on track.

Speaking at a panel session on ways to revitalise the oil palm sector, experts proffered means by which challenges confronting the palm oil sector could be tackled.

In his submission, the Managing Director, SWAgCo (O’dua Investment Group), Dr. Adewale Onadeko, said Nigeria should embrace an agro-industrial cluster strategy, adding that essential infrastructure such as seeds, fertilisers, extension services, processing, and storage facilities should be prioritised if the expected gains could be realised.

Another panellist, Dr. Bayo Ogunniyi, Country Programme Analyst for International Fund for Agricultural Development, highlighted the myriad challenges facing smallholder farmers, particularly the lack of access to finance and the prevalence of old, low-yield seeds.

He underscored the urgent need for Nigeria to distribute high-quality seeds to smallholder farmers to enhance production levels.

Ogunniyi also pointed out that the oil extraction rates of smallholder palm oil processors are alarmingly low, often falling below 15 percent, compared to the 25 percent extraction rates achieved by modern processing mills. Improving these extraction rates is crucial for maximising the output from Nigeria’s palm oil sector.

In his own contribution, CEO of BulkDirect, Ramses Najem, emphasised the importance of situating processing facilities closer to the farms to reduce transportation challenges.

Other speakers at the report launch called for a nationwide adoption of high-yield seeds to boost production, investment in modern processing facilities to increase oil extraction rates, and the development of strategic transportation networks to streamline the supply chain.

 

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