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OPEC Tells EU Russia’s Crude Oil Sanctions Will Erase 7mbd From Global Oil Market

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On Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) informed the European Union that Russia crude oil sanctions will erase about 7 million barrels per day from the global oil market.

According to Reuters, the cartel warned European Union member nations that it would be impossible to replace 7 million barrels per day given the current demand level and disruption in supplies.

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo was quoted as saying, “we could potentially see the loss of more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil and other liquids exports, resulting from current and future sanctions or other voluntary actions,”

“Considering the current demand outlook, it would be nearly impossible to replace a loss in volumes of this magnitude.”

However, European Union representative encouraged OPEC to proffer solutions that will increase Crude Oil deliveries inorder to curb the continuous increase price of crude oil in the globa market. This the EU believes is the responsibility of OPEC

Following the sactions imposed by Washington and Brussels on Moscow last month, the price of crude oil reached a 14-year high. This promted the United States and International Energy Agency request to OPEC to increase the global supply of crude oil to the market in other to regulate price.

However, OPEC Sec. Gen. Barkindo said the current highly volatile market was a result of “non-fundamental factors” outside OPEC’s control, in a signal the group would not pump more.

OPEC+, which consists of OPEC and other producers including Russia, will raise output by about 432,000 barrels per day in May, as part of a gradual unwinding of output cuts made during the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The EU-OPEC meeting on Monday afternoon was the latest in a dialogue launched between the two sides in 2005.

Russian oil has been excluded from EU sanctions so far. But after the 27-country bloc agreed last week to sanction Russian coal – its first to target energy supplies – some senior EU officials said oil could be next.

The European Commission is drafting proposals for an oil embargo on Russia, the foreign ministers of Ireland, Lithuania and the Netherlands said on Monday at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg, although there was no agreement to ban Russian crude.

Australia, Canada and the United States, who are less reliant on Russian supply than Europe, have already banned Russian oil purchases.

EU countries are split over whether to follow suit, given their higher dependency and the potential for the move to push up already high energy prices in Europe.

The EU expects its oil use to decrease 30 percent by 2030, from 2015 levels, under its planned policies to fight climate change – though in the short term, an embargo would trigger a dash to replace Russian oil with alternative supplies.

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Oil Prices Rebound on OPEC+ Output Delay Talks and U.S. Inventory Drop

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Oil prices made a modest recovery on Thursday on the expectations that OPEC+ may delay planned production increases and the drop in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 66 cents, or 0.9% to $73.36 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 64 cents or 0.9% to $69.84 per barrel.

The rebound in oil prices was a result of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report that revealed that the U.S. crude oil inventories had fallen by a surprising 7.431 million barrels last week, against analysts 1 million barrel decline projection.

The decline signals better than projected demand for the commodity in the United States of America and offers some relief for traders on global demand.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, attributed the rebound in crude oil prices to the API report.

He said, “There is a pause of breath and light reprieve for oil prices.”

Also, discussions within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are fueling speculation about a potential delay in planned output increases.

The group was initially expected to increase production by 180,000 a day in October 2024.

However, concerns over softening demand in China and potential developments in Libya’s oil production have prompted the group to reconsider its strategy.

Despite the recent rebound, analysts caution that lingering uncertainties around global oil demand may continue to weigh on prices in the near term.

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Again NNPC Raises Petrol Price to N897/litre

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has once again increased the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from N855 per litre on Tuesday to N897 on Wednesday.

The increase was after Aliko Dangote, the Chairman of Dangote Refinery, announced the commencement of petrol production at its refinery.

The continuous increase in pump prices has raised concerns among Nigerians despite the initial excitement from the refinery announcement.

According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the 650,000 barrels per day refinery will supply 25 million litres of petrol to the Nigerian market daily this September.

This, NMDPRA said will increase to 30 million litres per day in October.

However, the promise of increased fuel supply has not yet eased the situation on the ground.

Tunde Ayeni, a commercial bus driver at an NNPC station in Ikoyi, said “I have been in the queue since 6 a.m. waiting for them to start selling, but we just realised that the pump price has been changed to N897. This is terrible, and yet they still haven’t started selling the product.”

The price hike comes as NNPC continues to struggle with sustaining regular fuel supply.

On Sunday, the company warned that its ability to maintain steady distribution across the country was under threat due to financial strain.

NNPC cited rising supply costs as the cause of its difficulties in keeping up with demand.

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Brent and WTI Steady After Recent Losses as Libyan Oil Halt Continues

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Oil prices stabilised on Monday as Libyan oil exports remained halted and following losses at the end of last week on expectations of higher OPEC+ production from October and signs of sluggish Chinese and U.S. demand.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dipped by 6 cents, or 0.08% to close at $76.87 a barrel , while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged up 8 cents, or 0.11% to $73.63.

Monday marked a public holiday in the U.S. market.

On Friday Brent and WTI lost 1.4% and 3.1%, respectively.

Oil exports at major Libyan ports were halted on Monday and production curtailed across the country, six engineers told Reuters, continuing a standoff between rival political factions over control of the central bank and oil revenue.

Libya’s Arabian Gulf Oil Company resumed output of around 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Sunday, to feed a power plant at the port of Hariga.

“The current disturbances in Libya’s oil production could provide room for added supply from OPEC+. But these fluctuations have become quite normal over the last few years, meaning any outages will probably be shortlived; with the news flow indicating signals for a restart of production have already been given,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+, is set to proceed with planned increases to oil output from October, six sources from the producer group told Reuters.

Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October as part of a plan to begin unwinding their most recent supply cuts of 2.2 million bpd while keeping other cuts in place until the end of 2025.

Both Brent and WTI have posted losses for two consecutive months as U.S. and Chinese demand concerns have outweighed recent disruptions in Libya and supply risk related to conflict in the Middle East.

More pessimism about Chinese demand growth surfaced after an official survey showed on Saturday that manufacturing activity sank to a six-month low in August as factory gate prices tumbled and owners struggled for orders.

“The softer-than-expected China PMI released over the weekend heightens concerns that the Chinese economy will miss growth targets,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.

In the U.S., oil consumption in June dropped to seasonal lows last registered during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Energy Information Administration data showed on Friday.

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