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Russia-Ukraine War to Shrink Ukraine Economy by 45 Percent- World Bank

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Ukraine's President Zelensky - Investors King

The World Bank says Ukraine’s economy will shrink by 45.1 percent this year because of Russia’s invasion, which has shut down half of the country’s businesses, choked off imports and exports, and damaged a vast amount of critical infrastructure.

Unprecedented financial and export sanctions imposed by Western allies in response to the war, meanwhile, are plunging Russia into a deep recession, lopping off more than a tenth of its economic growth, the World Bank said in a report Sunday.

The war is set to inflict twice the amount of economic damage across Europe and Central Asia that the COVID-19 pandemic did, the Washington-based lender said in its “War in the Region” economic report. Besides Ukraine, it focuses on central and Eastern Europe, former Soviet republics, the Balkan countries and Turkey.

“The magnitude of the humanitarian crisis unleashed by the war is staggering,” said Anna Bjerde, the World Bank’s vice president for the Europe and Central Asia region. “The Russian invasion is delivering a massive blow to Ukraine’s economy and it has inflicted enormous damage to infrastructure.”

The report said economic activity is impossible in “large swaths of areas” in Ukraine because infrastructure like roads, bridges, ports and train tracks have been destroyed.

Ukraine plays a major role as a global supplier of agricultural exports like wheat but that’s in question now because planting and harvesting have been disrupted by the war, the report said. The war has cut off access to the Black Sea, a key route for exports, including 90 percent of Ukraine’s grain shipments, it said.

“The war is having a devastating impact on human life and causing economic destruction in both countries, and will lead to significant economic losses in the Europe and Central Asia region and the rest of the world,” the report said.

Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Tajikistan also are forecast to slide into recession this year, while economic growth projections have been cut for the region’s other economies because of the war’s ripple effects.

The World Bank said the humanitarian catastrophe is the biggest initial shockwave from the war and will likely be its most enduring legacy, as the wave of refugees fleeing Ukraine is “anticipated to dwarf previous crises.”

According to World Bank, more than 4 million people have fled Ukraine, with more than half going to Poland and others heading to countries like Moldova, Romania and Hungary. An additional 6.5 million have been displaced internally. Those numbers are expected to swell as the war drags on.

The report issued a stark warning that “the war will increase poverty in the region due to the recession and food price inflation.”

Beyond the humanitarian crisis, the lender said “the war is also delivering a sizable blow to the global economy through multiple channels.”

The war and sanctions have scrambled global trade routes and pushed up shipping and insurance costs, “which magnifies strains on global value chains,” the report said, noting that industries getting hit include food, automobiles, construction, petrochemicals and transport.

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House of Reps Warns Tinubu Against Multiple Tax Burdens on Nigerians

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Company Income Tax (CIT) - Investors King

The House of Representatives has warned President Bola Tinubu against imposing multiple taxes, levies, and charges on Nigerians already struggling with subsidy removal and higher electricity bills.

During Thursday’s plenary session, the member representing Anambra East/Anambra West Federal Constituency, Mr. Peter Aniekwe, called for the adoption of a motion on urgent public importance.

Investors King reported that the motion was co-sponsored by the House Minority Leader, Rep. Kingsley Chinda, and four others.

In defense of the motion, Aniekwe noted that the government’s introduction of additional taxes, which he described as sometimes unnecessary, only adds an undue burden on Nigerians.

He emphasized the need for the government to strike a balance when imposing taxes that are essential for revenue generation.

Aniekwe said, “The imposition of multiple taxes, levies, and charges at various levels of government only serves to exacerbate the financial strain on citizens, particularly those in low-income brackets, many of whom are already struggling to meet basic needs such as food, healthcare, housing, and education.

“The introduction of additional and sometimes unnecessary taxes, including consumption taxes, service taxes, and levies on essential goods and services, places an undue burden on the masses, further widening the inequality gap.

“While taxation is necessary for government revenue, a balance must be struck between revenue generation and the economic well-being of citizens, particularly at a time when many families and businesses are still recovering from the economic impact of global and local challenges.

“The government’s primary responsibility is to alleviate the economic challenges faced by the masses, ensuring policies that promote economic development, social welfare, and prosperity for all citizens.”

After Aniekwe’s defense, the House of Representatives adopted the motion.

The House cautioned the Federal Government against multiple taxation and mandated the committees on Finance and FIRS to, within three weeks, conduct a thorough review of existing tax laws and policies to streamline tax collection processes and eliminate redundant or overlapping taxes.

The committee was also tasked with identifying areas of double taxation at all levels for necessary action.

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Boosting Nigeria’s Digital Future: STEM Education and AI Could Add $15 Billion to Economy by 2030

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If Nigeria can enhance its Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) education and prepare its workforce for future opportunities in the digital space, the economy could expand by an additional $15 billion, a new report has revealed.

The report, issued by consultancy Public First on Thursday, also indicated that Nigeria reaped an estimated $1.8 billion in economic benefits from Google’s tools and services in 2023.

Presenting the report in Lagos State, the Nigeria Digital Opportunity study highlighted the financial value contributed to the nation’s economy through services such as Google Search, Ads, Google Play, YouTube, and Google Cloud.

These services have played a significant role in boosting the productivity of Nigerian businesses, content creators, and workers.

It is no secret that a large number of young Nigerians have become tech-savvy, with many venturing into the thriving world of technology and content creation on social media platforms.

According to Google, its digital skills programs and career certificates are key drivers of Nigeria’s digital transformation, with over 1.5 million young Nigerians acquiring new digital skills in 2023.

Google’s Director for West Africa, Olumide Balogun, expressed the company’s satisfaction with the positive impact that digital technology is having on Nigeria’s economy.

He emphasized that the findings highlight the importance of continued investment in digital skills and infrastructure to unlock the full potential of Nigeria’s growing digital economy.

Balogun noted that with rapid digital advancements, particularly in areas such as cloud computing, connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI), Nigeria is well-positioned to solidify its standing as a leading digital economy in Africa.

He advised the country to strengthen its technology policies, stating that Nigeria’s economic future will largely depend on its ability to harness technology. Balogun added that Google remains committed to supporting Nigeria’s journey through strategic investments and partnerships.

The report underscored the significant role digital technology plays in Nigeria’s economy, with Balogun noting that for every $1 invested in digital technology, the country generates over $8 in economic value.

Meanwhile, Google has called on Nigerian policymakers to prioritize STEM education to maximize the economic benefits of technology.

The report also projected that AI could contribute $15 billion to Nigeria’s economy by 2030.

Balogun highlighted Google’s efforts in promoting responsible AI development, noting that in 2021, the company committed $1 billion to support Africa’s digital economy.

He added that this initiative included the 2022 landing of the Equiano fiber-optic cable in Nigeria, which is expected to boost internet penetration by seven percent by 2025, significantly enhancing internet access and reliability.

Google also recommended that Nigerian policymakers adopt cloud-first strategies and strengthen the country’s digital infrastructure to harness the full potential of AI, while emphasizing the need for improved STEM education to prepare the workforce for future opportunities.

Amy Price, Director and Head of Technology Policy at Public First, praised Nigeria as a digital leader in Africa. She emphasized that tech investment will serve as a catalyst for further growth and development across the nation.

Price further highlighted the critical role AI will play in shaping Nigeria’s future economy, with the report estimating that AI could add $15 billion to the country’s GDP by 2030. She stressed that the nation must focus on building strong digital infrastructure and investing in STEM education to prepare its workforce for the jobs of tomorrow.

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Lawmakers to Deliberate on Nigerian Tax Reform Bills, Change of FIRS to NIRS

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Value added tax - Investors King

The National Assembly is set to begin deliberations after receiving President Bola Tinubu’s communication seeking consideration and passage of the proposed Fiscal Policy and Tax Reform Bill to align with ongoing financial reforms of the Federal Government and enhance efficiency in tax compliance.

In addition to the Senate, the House of Representatives received four bills forwarded by the President. They include the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Establishment Bill and the Joint Revenue Board Establishment Bill.

The Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill seeks to repeal the Federal Inland Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, No. 13, 2007, and establishes the Nigeria Revenue Service, to assess, collect, and account for revenue accruable to the government of the federation.

The Transmission of Fiscal Policy and Tax Reform Bills to the National Assembly is The Nigeria Tax Bill, which seeks to provide a consolidated fiscal framework for taxation in Nigeria.

The Nigeria Tax Administration Bill seeks to provide a clear and concise legal framework for the fair, consistent and efficient administration of all the tax laws to facilitate ease of tax compliance, reduce tax disputes and optimize revenue.

Meanwhile, the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill aims to establish the Joint Revenue Board, the Tax Appeal Tribunal and the Office of the Tax Ombudsman for the harmonization, coordination and settlement of disputes arising from revenue administration in Nigeria.

This comes after President Tinubu during his speech on Nigeria’s 64th Independence Anniversary on Tuesday (October 1) said some Economic Stabilisation Bills would be transmitted to the National Assembly.

“We are moving ahead with our fiscal policy reforms. To stimulate our productive capacity and create more jobs and prosperity, the Federal Executive Council approved the Economic Stabilisation Bills, which will now be transmitted to the National Assembly.

“These transformative bills will make our business environment more friendly, stimulate investment and reduce the tax burden on businesses and workers once they are passed into law,” he said.

Recently, the Chairman of the Presidential Taskforce on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, said the Withholding Tax Regulations 2024 has been gazetted.

“I do have some good news, the good news is that the withholding tax regulation has now been gazetted. So, the only reason it hasn’t been published today is because it is public holiday, so first thing tomorrow you will see a copy of the gazette and that provides a lot of relief not just for manufacturers but also every other business in terms of taking away some of the burdens of funding their working capital,” Mr Oyedele said.

Nigeria has been seeking to harmonise its tax base as it has a tax-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 10.8 percent; comparatively, the average tax-to-GDP ratio for Africa is about 18 percent.

 

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