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Coronation Trade Insights

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Nigeria in focus

The latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its series on foreign trade in goods shows the total value of trade increased by 11.8% q/q to N11.7trn in Q4 ‘21. For FY ’21, total foreign trade increased by 57.6%, to N39.7trn from N25.2trn in 2020. Compared with 2020, the total export value rose by 51% to N18.9trn, from N12.5trn and the import value rose by 64.1% to N20.8trn from N12.7trn. The net result was a deficit of N1.9trn, which followed a deficit of N178bn the previous year.

Total trade in 2021 was higher primarily due to subsiding pandemic restrictions that had affected export activity in 2020 and increases in commodity prices (i.e. crude oil). The total trade as a percentage of nominal GDP stood at 22.6% in 2021, compared with 16.4% in 2020.

For Nigeria, the NBS notes that most imports in Q4 and FY ’21 originated from Asia (China in particular). In 2021, the value of imported agricultural goods, manufactured products as well as oil-related products rose by 57%, 2.5% and 43.3% respectively when compared to FY ‘20.

Regarding export destination, India remained the top exporting partner for Nigeria in 2021. The five top exports partners were India, (16.4%) Spain (11.8%), France (6.3%), the Netherlands (6.0%) and Canada (4.5%). These five countries accounted for 45% of the total exports in 2021.

Unsurprisingly, crude oil accounted for the largest share (76.2%) of total exports in 2021. The value of crude oil exports increased by 52.6% when compared to 2020. Bonny Light averaged USD71.1/b in 2021. We note that raw and fermented cocoa beans, sesamum seeds, ginger, cigarettes, natural rubber and aluminium featured as
non-oil export products in 2021.

Nigeria exported goods valued at N1.2trn to fellow members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), compared with N841bn in 2020. This represented 51.4% of total exports within Africa. Meanwhile, imports from ECOWAS accounted for 15% of the value of total imports.

The leading port of operation during the year under review was the Apapa Port. Goods worth N17.1trn exited the country through this port. The next leading port of operation was Port Harcourt, through which goods worth N1trn were shipped to partner countries. Tin Can Island was also very active and goods worth N405bn exited Nigeria through this port.

The CBN announced the RT200 FX program, which is a set of policies, plans and programs for non-oil exports that will enable the country to attain the goal of USD200bn in FX repatriation from non-oil exports over the next 3-5 years. The program would rest on five key anchors; (I) non-oil exports proceed repatriation rebate scheme (II) Non-oil commodities expansion facility (III) Dedicated non-oil export terminal (IV) Value-adding exports facility (V) Biannual non-oil exports summit.

The CBN has released the operating guidelines for the non-oil export proceeds repatriation rebate scheme. Under this scheme, non-oil export proceeds sold to Authorised Dealers and Banks (ADBs) for third party use through investors and Exporters (I&E) window, will get a rebate of N65 for every USD and N35 for every US Dollar repatriated and sold into the I&E window for own use on eligible transactions only. The payment of the incentive will be made on quarterly basis.

The recent introduction of the pan-African payment and settlement system (PAPSS) is another welcome development, as over 80% of African cross-border transactions originating from banks within the continent are currently cleared and settled offshore.

Therefore, creating inefficiencies, and increasing the cost of African cross-border payments. PAPPS will facilitate payments as well as formalise some of the informal cross-border trade in Africa.

Through a simple, low-cost and risk-controlled payment clearing and settlement system, PAPPS would provide an alternative to the current high-cost and lengthy correspondent banking system, as well as an enabling infrastructure to spur the growth of intraAfrican trade and commerce, with the active participation of central banks, financial institutions, regional economic communities, the private sector, and other stakeholders.

Global/Regional in focus

Extraordinary measures such as lockdowns, quarantines and travel restrictions aimed at curtailing the spread of COVID-19 had a dramatic effect on global trade in 2020. According to data from the World Trade Organisation (WTO), merchandise trade declined by -7.3% or USD2.7trn to USD35.2trn in 2020, compared with USD37.9trn in 2019.

According to WTO, merchandise trade increased by 24.4% y/y (USD2.1trn) to USD11.2trn in Q3 ’21. However, the recovery in 2021 was affected by supply shortages, on the back of bottlenecks in global freight transport, spiralling shipping costs, logistic disruptions, semiconductor shortages, and rising energy prices. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has hampered progress with global trade activity and has led to hikes in prices of some core commodities such as wheat. Turning to Africa, in 2020, merchandise trade declined by 15.9% to USD895.3bn, compared with USD1.1trn in 2019.

However, there were notable improvements in African trade activity last year, as global economies reopened fully and there was progress with vaccine uptake (African vaccination rate currently stands at 20%). Based on data from the International Trade Center, in 2020, countries within Africa (combined) imported agricultural products worth USD4bn from Russia. Wheat accounted for c.90% of these imports. Egypt was the largest importer, followed by Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya, and South Africa.

Furthermore, in the same year, wheat accounted for c.48% of total imported agricultural products from Ukraine, valued at c.USD2.9bn. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis has resulted in further supply-chain disruptions. The sanctions imposed by the US and its allies on Russia could have an adverse effect on trade activities between countries within Africa and Russia.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development disclosed that, in 2019, intra-African trade accounted for less than 15% of total exports among African countries. This suggests that there are potential benefits from increased regional trade.

However, if informal cross-border trade is considered, this percentage increases. We note that in some African countries, informal cross-border trade accounts for c.90% of official trade flow and contributes c.40% to total trade within regional economic communities.

Africa currently engages in the global value chain mainly via the supply of primary goods. The intra-trade level in Africa is low when compared with other regions, like Asia and Europe. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to boost the intra-regional economy and provide new dynamics to Africa’s participation in the global value chain. According to World Bank’s analysis, the AfCFTA will boost intracontinental exports by over 81% and exports with non-African countries by 19% by 2035.

Regarding sectors, manufacturing exports are anticipated to make the most gains: a 110% increase for intra-African trade and 46% for non-African trade. For Nigeria, the local manufacturing sector needs to be strengthened in order to benefit from the potential boost.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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power project

President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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