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Debt Servicing Poses Huge Threat To Nigeria’s Economy As FG Spends $13.1bn In 11 Years

Rising debt servicing cost poses a threat to Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria. Nigeria spends over 30% of its budget on debt financing, hence why it struggles with other developments.

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Nigeria’s constant borrowings and debt servicing has been projected to be a huge threat to the nation’s economy, as the country spent $13.1billion in 11 years to settle her foreign debt obligations.

In an international payment data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the amount spent by Nigeria on debt servicing and payments to the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Exim Bank of China, among others reached a $1.4 billion mark in 2018. According to the report, the CBN, in 2019, withdrew $1.34 billion for debt servicing and payment.

Investors King understands that in 2021, debt servicing and payments dropped by 63 per cent to $2.13 billion from $5.77 billion reported in 2020.

The data further revealed that in the first three months of 2021, $1.3 billion was spent to service debts. The amount dropped to $298.9 in the next three months ending June 2021. Also, between November and December of 2021, the CBN revealed that $148.57 and $69.83million were spent on debt service and payments, respectively.

This increasing debt servicing has become a source of worry to stakeholders and economists. Recently, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members of the CBN expressed concerns over this development, as well as its vulnerability to the nation’s economic growth. The committee members, at their last meeting, had cautioned the Federal Government on the rising government debt profile and the concentration of the funding sources and its implications for fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability, including its impact on financial system performance and growth.

Also, the African Development Bank, AfDB, in its recent West Africa Economic Outlook, said the servicing of the country’s external debt gulped about 50 per cent of the country’s revenue.

The AfDB noted that even though Nigeria’s debt burden had increased by as much as 128 per cent in the last eight years, the country’s debt to Gross Domestic Product remained low.

“Nigeria is however not alone in the debt dilemma as the global debt levels soared above 400 percent of global GDP early in 2021, but later declined to about 350 percent of global GDP by the third quarter of 2021.

“The main challenge is the lack of debt wisdom in Nigeria and with the debt service expenditure estimated at about 35.6 percent of the projected revenue in 2022, the road to long term recovery now seems more uncertain than previously anticipated”, Robert Asogwa, a member of AfDB said in his personal statement.

Another member of the MPC, Mike I. Obadan said: “Fiscal performance is worrisome in the area of revenue generation and the attendant narrow fiscal space and public debt accumulation. Besides these are other issues which shape the direction of monetary policy.”

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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