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Markets Today – Failed Talks, ECB, US Inflation, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

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Stock - Investors King

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

European markets have made significant losses again on Thursday, as risk appetite reversed following unsuccessful talks between Ukraine and Russia.

There can’t have been much expectation for anything more given the wide-ranging demands and ridiculous justifications we’ve seen from Russia for the invasion, or “special military operation”. But I guess high-level talks are a small step in the right direction which has provided some hope.

With the lack of progress and the continued assault on Ukraine and its people, the sanctions from the West will keep coming which should ensure uncertainty remains high in the markets and any rallies vulnerable. Today’s declines only partially offset yesterday’s gains but I wouldn’t read too much into that. The worst is probably yet to come for Ukraine.

ECB proceeds with tapering despite downside risks to the economic outlook

Regardless of what the market reaction would have us believe, I’m not sure what about the ECB decision and press conference today was actually surprising. Markets were already pricing in rate hikes this year so the phasing out of net asset purchases over the coming months and the end of PEPP this month falls very much in line with that.

The revision to the inflation forecasts was not surprising given the recent data. It was still mildly shocking to see the 2022 number as you don’t see such revisions too often but under the circumstances, it was always going to be substantial.

The press conference from Christine Lagarde contained all of the context and caveats you’ve come to expect from these events. Just the right amount of ambiguity that leaves traders with barely and more information – to put it generously – than they had before it started. All in all, today went as you’d expect and the outlook remains highly uncertain and dependent on how the crisis in Ukraine plays out.

US inflation is near the peak

US inflation rose again in February by a staggering 0.8%, or 7.9% on an annual basis. The number was in line with expectations though and the likelihood is we’re near the peak which could come next month. That won’t comfort those feeling the squeeze as a result of these widespread price increases, especially when faced with much higher energy prices, but the trajectory should start to look more promising after that. This leaves little doubt that the Fed will raise rates next week and at the upcoming meetings though as it hopes to get to grips with inflation having already ignored it for too long.

Oil cautiously higher after mixed messages from UAE

Oil prices are rising again, up around 4% on the day at one point, as talks between Ukraine and Russia give little cause for optimism. The risk of further disruption remains high, especially with more sanctions to come that will make life harder for Russia and companies less keen to do business with them.

The one ray of hope comes from the UAE, following comments yesterday that suggested they favour higher output. That was tempered later, though, by the country’s energy minister who reaffirmed their commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, so who knows where that leaves us. One dissenting voice within the group could at least spark more discussion about the need for higher production, although I can think of one influential member that may fiercely oppose it.

Gold should remain supported and could take another run at the highs

Gold is hovering around $2,000 after plunging on Wednesday as part of the big risk-reversal we saw across the markets. It’s not made up an enormous amount of ground today, despite commodity prices heading higher and risk aversion sweeping through the markets once more.

While the talks today yielded no positive outcome and both sides still seem miles apart in their expectation, it seems the very fact that these discussions are taking place and at a high level is providing some hope. Gold should still remain well supported unless we see any real breakthrough and while it may have just failed at the first time of asking, record highs may not be far away.

Bitcoin remains vulnerable to shifts in risk-appetite

Bitcoin is back below $40,000 after giving up almost all of Wednesday’s gains in early trade. The surge in risk appetite saw bitcoin soar higher yesterday, a move that was always vulnerable given the massive volatility and headline-driven price action. There was also a suggestion that President Biden’s executive order on digital assets may have been behind the rally but perhaps not. Cryptos remain very sensitive to gyrations in risk-appetite and today they’ve been caught on the wrong side of it.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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