Russia-Ukraine War to Disrupt Nigeria’s N993.38bn Imports From Russia

Data compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals that the value of Russia’s imports to Nigeria over 12-month is N993.38bn – the 12-month in review is import value between Nigeria and Russia from Q3 2020 and the corresponding period in 2021.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is one that came with global implications and unfortunately Nigeria is not insulated from this disruption given that Russia is one of the country’s largest export partners in recent years.

According to the report by NBS, Nigeria imports four specific items from Russia, the country presently at war with Ukraine. These four items are Durum wheat, herrings, blue whitings, and mackerel.

Nigeria-Russia Breakdown according to the NBS Report

Q3 2020: In Q3, Nigeria imported durum wheat worth N46.56bn, mackerel worth N13.76bn, and blue whitings worth N1.57bn. In that period, Russia was the second leading exporter of durum wheat to Nigeria, the first for mackerel, and the third for blue whitings. Russia became Nigeria’s seventh-largest trading partner in Q3 2020 with the accumulation of N154.21bn about 2.87 percent of Nigeria’s import trade value for the period in review.

Q4 2020: Russia still maintained its position with an import trade value accumulating to N162.62bn which was 2.74 percent of Nigeria’s total import trade value. However, aside from the usual imported items, Nigeria also imported N4.82bn vaccines for human medicine from Russia. In Q4, Nigeria imported durum wheat worth N62.9bn, mackerel worth N2.27bn, and herrings worth N6.59bn. The additional importation of vaccines made Russia Nigeria’s fifth import trade partner for vaccines for human medicine.

Q1 2021: Russia remained Nigeria’s top trade partner for herrings and fourth for wheat as the country imported N15.8bn herrings and N37.20bn durum wheat from Russia.

Q2 2021: Russia was missing from the report for top wheat providers in this quarter. However, Nigeria imported N27.23bn blue whitings and N4.18bn mackerel from Russia in this quarter. Import from Russia in this quarter was N284.36bn cumulatively, which was 4.09 per cent of the total import trade value.

Q3 2021: In this quarter, Russia dropped to the sixth import trading partner for Nigeria with an import trade value of N339.19bn cumulatively, which was 4.16 per cent of the total import trade value. In the quarter, durum wheat worth N86.75bn and mackerel worth N30.69bn were imported from Russia.

Projections with import disruption

As the crisis between both countries persists, Nigeria is at a risk from not only Russia but also Ukraine as Nigeria also has trade relationships with Ukraine. In 2020, Nigeria spent $156.08m on imports from Ukraine, data by the United Nations Comtrade Database on International trade reveals. The database also indicated that import from Russia was $1.24bn in 2020.

While the war continues and heats up with trade sanctions imposed on Russia by global trade communities, Nigeria may need to look beyond Russia for products like cereals, mineral fuel, oil distillation products, fish, iron and steel, fertilizers, amongst others.

Some economic experts have also expressed that Nigeria may experience more elevated inflation in the coming weeks as the war persists.