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New Analysis Explores Nigeria’s Plans to Put Agriculture at the Heart of its Economy Development Plans

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Trade - Investors King

A new focus report, produced by Oxford Business Group (OBG) in partnership with Farmforte, maps out Nigeria’s plans to boost agriculture’s contribution to the economy through innovation and development finance.

Titled “The Report: Nigeria 2022, Agriculture“, the study looks at the key role earmarked for agri-tech in supporting the country’s efforts to ensure food security for its growing population and create a more diversified, industrialised economic base.

It highlights the growing number of investment and partnership opportunities emerging in areas that include finance, logistics and infrastructure development, as Nigeria moves to strengthen its agricultural value chain and drive sectoral expansion.

The report also analyses the local value-added activities that are ripe for growth and will help Nigeria meet domestic demand, while also paving the way for it to increase export revenue over time, which range from agro-processing to food and beverage manufacturing.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the considerable potential it offers Nigeria to develop intra-continental agricultural trade in the coming years is another focus.

Subscribers will also find coverage of the challenges that producers currently face, which range from insufficient levels of irrigation and land tenure issues to limited implementation of research findings.

The report includes interviews with key industry representatives, including Osazuwa Osayi, Co-founder and Co-CEO, Farmforte, the Lagos-based, impact-oriented value chain development firm.

In the interview, Osayi shares his views on a range of topical issues, including what could be done to support small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises, which are seen as a vehicle for sustainable economic development and employment generation.

“During the Covid-19 pandemic farmers reduced market-oriented vegetable production, produced more vegetables for their own consumption, increased home processing and storage, explored new markets and accepted lower sales prices,” he said. “Socio-economic factors such as age, household size and marital status, as well as difficulty accessing inputs and perceptions of the effects of the pandemic, influenced farmers’ decisions to adopt particular coping strategies. With this in mind, in order to sustain vegetable supplies, policymakers should consider investing more in market-oriented strategies such as vegetable processing and storage, which individual farmers may not be able to afford due to high costs, as well as a lack of information and knowledge on good agronomic practices, post-harvest handling facilities, storage and market access.”

Karine Loehman, OBG’s Managing Director for Africa, said that although Nigeria’s agriculture sector displayed resilience during 2020-21, the Covid-19 crisis had heightened the issues surrounding food security in Nigeria, with supply-chain disruptions, limited transport, reductions in income and difficulty accessing credit just some of the issues faced across the sector.

“The pandemic has sharpened the focus on agri-tech, highlighting its benefits, especially for smallholder farmers and small agricultural enterprises, and accelerating the adoption of tech-led solutions,” she said. “Our report shows that there is widespread recognition of the part that agrarian activities could play in supporting Nigeria’s bid to reduce its reliance on oil and a will to return agriculture to its role of key contributor to economic growth.”

The report on Nigeria’s agriculture sector forms part of a series of tailored studies that OBG is currently producing with its partners, alongside other highly relevant, go-to research tools, including a range of country-specific Growth and Recovery Outlook articles and interviews.

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Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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