Connect with us

Markets

Market Today: Another Day, Another Rollercoaster Ride

Published

on

Traders Wall Street

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

Volatility is the only thing that appears to be certain in the markets right now, as European stocks pare losses to even sneak into positive territory on the day while US futures now eye only a small decline after the bank holiday weekend.

The old adage goes that the market hates uncertainty and while that has clearly been evident at times over the last couple of weeks, there’s no doubt that investors continue to be tempted back in at the slightest hint of diplomacy winning the day. Even after the events of the last 24 hours and all of the rhetoric that’s accompanied it, there remains hope.

Russia still claims to desire a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Ukraine, despite being the catalyst for the latest escalation when recognising the independence of two separatist regions. That decision has invited a barrage of criticism and sanctions will follow today which will no doubt damage diplomatic efforts that appeared to be making headway earlier this week.

Of course, while the latest developments look like a precursor to an invasion – and may well be just that – they could also be deliberate attempts to add further urgency to the situation and force people into serious negotiations. As it stands, investors appear to be hoping this is the case and as long as Russia continues to seek a diplomatic solution and troops remain on the right side of the border, interest in the dips will remain.

As the crisis deepens though, we will continue to see risks being priced in accordingly, and nowhere is that more evident than in Russian assets and the oil and gas markets. The move by Germany to halt certification of Nord Stream 2 following the events of the last 24 hours is not entirely surprising but does block what would have otherwise been one passage to alleviating pressures in the gas market in the coming months.

Oil eyeing $100 after Ukraine escalation

While stock markets are enjoying a partial recovery, oil and gas prices remain elevated as a conflict in Ukraine significantly increases the risk of disruptions to Russian supply. While there is reportedly no desire to intentionally restrict supplies in the face of further escalation, assurances will be taken with a pinch of salt given recent developments.

The market remains extremely tight for oil and gas and the risk of disruption will result in a significant risk premium for as long as the possibility of conflict remains. A nuclear deal between the US and Iran will alleviate some of the pressures in the oil market but as we’re seeing, that’s doing little to stop oil prices marching towards $100.

Gold pares gains but remains well supported

Gold is now trading a little lower on the day after trading as high as $1,913 earlier in the session as risk appetite has gradually improved. The recovery looks fragile at best and barring a significant positive development, it’s hard to imagine gold not seeing plenty of support on the dips.

For so long, people have questioned gold’s position as a safe haven and an inflation hedge but recent events have put that debate to bed. The yellow metal continues to trade around $1,900 and could go much further in the event of major escalation.

Bitcoin suffers in risk-averse trade

Bitcoin is seeing some reprieve today after falling more than 15% since last Thursday. Risk aversion has weighed heavily on the cryptocurrency and in the absence of a significant improvement in Ukraine, we could see further pressure on it and other risk assets. With bitcoin back below $40,000, the focus switches back to recent notable levels, including $36,250 – where it has seen support today – and $33,000. But the big level remains $30,000 which has been key for many months.

Continue Reading
Comments

Energy

Port-Harcourt Refinery Set to Commence Operations by July End, IPMAN Discloses

Published

on

oil refinery

The Port-Harcourt refinery with a capacity of 210,000 barrels per day, is poised to begin operations by the end of July.

This announcement comes after several postponements and delays that have plagued the refinery’s revival efforts.

Chief Ukadike Chinedu, the National Public Relations Officer of the Independent Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), revealed this optimistic timeline on Monday.

According to Chinedu, the refinery’s revival is expected to stimulate economic activities, reduce petroleum product prices, and ensure adequate supply in the market.

The refinery, located in Port-Harcourt, comprises two units: an older plant with a refined capacity of 60,000 barrels per day and a newer plant with a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day.

Despite previous setbacks and delays, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, announced the mechanical completion and flare start-off of the refinery in December last year.

However, the refinery’s journey to resuming operations has been marked by challenges and setbacks. It shut down in March 2019 for the first phase of repair works, following the government’s engagement of technical advisors to oversee the refurbishment process.

Despite assurances from NNPC Limited’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, in March 2024, stating that operations would commence within two weeks, the refinery faced further delays.

In an exclusive interview, Chinedu emphasized the extensive turnaround undertaken at the refinery, suggesting a complete overhaul rather than mere rehabilitation.

He expressed confidence in meeting the July deadline, citing round-the-clock efforts to ensure readiness for operations.

While acknowledging previous delays, Chinedu remained optimistic about the refinery’s imminent revival, emphasizing its potential to enhance competition in the petroleum sector and reduce product prices.

He pointed out that the refinery’s operationalization aligns with the impending commencement of petrol production by the Dangote Refinery, further emphasizing the potential benefits for Nigeria’s energy landscape.

However, Femi Soneye, the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC Limited, highlighted regulatory approvals from international bodies as the remaining hurdle to the refinery’s operational commencement.

Soneye reiterated that mechanical completion had been achieved, with all necessary infrastructure in place, awaiting regulatory clearance to commence operations.

As Nigeria navigates its energy transition and seeks to bolster local refining capacity, the imminent revival of the Port-Harcourt refinery signifies a significant milestone towards achieving energy sufficiency and economic growth.

With hopes pinned on the July deadline, stakeholders remain vigilant, anticipating the refinery’s long-awaited resurgence.

Continue Reading

Commodities

Nigeria Spends $2.13bn on Food Imports in 2023

Published

on

Commodities Exchange

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disbursed $2.13 billion for food imports in 2023.

This disclosure raises concerns about the nation’s ability to achieve self-sufficiency in food production.

Despite being touted as the “food basket of Africa,” Nigeria continues to rely heavily on imported food commodities.

The CBN’s quarterly statistics revealed a consistent demand for foreign currencies for food imports throughout the year.

The significant forex release for food imports stands in stark contrast to efforts by the Nigerian government to boost local agricultural production and reduce dependence on imports.

Factors such as inadequate infrastructure, insecurity, and climate change have hindered progress in the agricultural sector, leaving the nation vulnerable to fluctuations in global food prices.

A breakdown of the disbursements shows varying amounts allocated each month, with notable spikes observed in March and November.

Despite initiatives aimed at promoting local production, including the ban on food imports by the Federal Government, the nation’s appetite for foreign food products remains unabated.

The rise in food prices has also been a cause for concern, with the average price of imported food commodities reaching a 34% increase between April 2023 and April 2024.

This surge in prices has contributed to food inflation in Nigeria and across sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the region’s vulnerability to global market dynamics.

Experts warn that Nigeria’s heavy reliance on food imports poses significant risks to its economy and food security.

Despite efforts to promote local production, challenges such as insecurity and inadequate infrastructure continue to impede progress in the agricultural sector.

Commenting on the issue, Kabir Ibrahim, the National President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, acknowledged that Nigeria has made strides in reducing its dependence on certain food items but expressed concern over the increasing trend in food imports.

He highlighted the challenges faced by farmers, including insecurity and flooding, which have affected food production and contributed to the rising import bill.

Yusuf Muda, the Managing Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, emphasized the need for accurate data to assess Nigeria’s food import dependency accurately.

He called for a comprehensive analysis of the types of food imported and their contribution to the nation’s food consumption.

As Nigeria grapples with the challenges of food security and economic stability, addressing the root causes of its reliance on food imports remains a critical priority.

Efforts to strengthen the agricultural sector, improve infrastructure, and mitigate climate change impacts are essential for achieving long-term food security and economic resilience.

Continue Reading

Crude Oil

NNPCL CEO Optimistic as Nigeria’s Oil Production Edges Closer to 1.7mbpd

Published

on

Crude Oil

Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), has expressed optimism as the nation’s oil production approaches 1.7 million barrels per day (mbpd).

Kyari’s positive outlook comes amidst ongoing efforts to address security challenges and enhance infrastructure crucial for oil production and distribution.

Speaking at a stakeholders’ engagement between the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) and NNPCL in Lagos, Kyari highlighted the significance of combating insecurity in the oil and gas sector to facilitate increased production.

Kyari said there is a need for substantial improvements in infrastructure to support oil production.

He noted that Nigeria’s crude oil production has been hampered by pipeline vandalism, prompting alternative transportation methods like barging and trucking of petroleum products, which incur additional costs and logistical challenges.

Despite these challenges, Kyari revealed that Nigeria’s oil production is steadily rising, presently approaching 1.7mbpd.

He attributed this progress to ongoing efforts to combat pipeline vandalism and enhance infrastructure resilience.

Kyari stressed the importance of taking control of critical infrastructure to ensure uninterrupted oil production and distribution.

One of the key projects highlighted by Kyari is the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline, which plays a crucial role in enhancing gas supply infrastructure.

He noted that completing the final phase of the AKK pipeline, particularly the 2.7 km river crossing, would facilitate the flow of gas from the eastern to the western regions of Nigeria, supporting industrial growth and energy security.

Addressing industry stakeholders, including NAPE representatives, Kyari reiterated the importance of collaboration in advancing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

He emphasized the need for technical training, data availability, and policy incentives to drive innovation and growth in the industry.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending