Economic fundamentals in Africa’s largest economy Nigeria improved in recent months, according to the latest reports from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.98 percent (year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2021, indicating sustained growth for the fifth quarter since the 2020 recession when pandemic grounded business activities.
The growth was 3.87 percent points higher than the 0.11 percent recorded in Q4 2020 and lower than 4.03 percent achieved in Q3 2021. Annually, the Nigerian economy grew by 3.40 percent in 2021.
On a quarterly basis, the real GDP expanded by 9.63 percent in the fourth of 2021 when compared to the third quarter of the same year.
In the fourth quarter, Nigeria’s aggregate GDP stood at N49,276,018.23 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 which recorded aggregate GDP of N43,564,006.29 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 13.11 percent.
The nominal GDP growth rate in Q4 2021 was higher relative to 10.07 percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020 but lower compared to 15.41 percent growth recorded in the preceding quarter. 2021 annual nominal growth stood at 13.92 percent. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.
Oil Sector
The nation in the fourth quarter of 2021 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.50 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.56mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 by 0.06mbpd and lower than the third quarter 2021 production volume of 1.57mbpd by 0.07mbpd.
Real growth of the oil sector was –8.06% (year-on-year) in Q4 2021 indicating an increase by 11.71 percent points relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020. Growth increased by 2.68 percent points when compared to Q3 2021 which was –10.73 percent.
Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -24.06 percent in Q4 2021. Annual growth stood at -8.30 percent, a rate better than the -8.89 percent recorded in 2020. The Oil sector contributed 5.19 percent to total real GDP in Q4 2021, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 and down compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.87 percent and 7.49 percent, respectively. Nevertheless, the sector contributed 7.24 percent to real GDP in 2021.
Non-Sector
The non-oil sector grew by 4.73 percent in real terms during the reference quarter (Q4 2021). This rate was higher by 3.05 percent point compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2020 and 0.71 percent point lower than the third quarter of 2021. This sector was driven in the fourth quarter of 2021 mainly by Agriculture (crop production); trade; Information and Communication (Telecommunication); and Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), accounting for positive GDP growth.
In real terms, the NonOil sector contributed 94.81 percent to the nation’s GDP in fourth quarter 2021, higher from share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020 which was 94.13 percent and higher than the third quarter of 2021 recorded as 92.51 percent. The annual contribution in 2021 was 92.76 percent.
