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Fuel Queues Return to Nigeria as Distributors Protest High-sulphur, Dirty Fuel

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Petrol - Investors King

By Enyi Ominyi

An unexpected protest by Nigerian petrol marketers over alleged dirty, high-sulphur fuel imported by the state-owned oil company, the Nigerian National Petrol Corporation, NNPC has triggered long queues in petrol stations across the country.

Motorists who drove out early Tuesday morning hoping to refill their tanks met empty pumps and barricaded stations, leading to anger and frustrations as transporters hiked fares.

The NNPC, the sole importer of petrol in the country, has allegedly imported high-sulphur petrol and marketers who received the allocation have received instruction from their union not to distribute it. The result is the overnight scarcity that has upended plans and will lead to massive disruption in business activities across the country.

NNPC has yet to respond officially to the allegations. Neither has the Department of Petroleum Resources, DPR an arm of the Nigerian state oil company responsible for regulation and compliance in Nigeria’s petroleum sector.

The long road to clean fuel

Nigeria attempted to cut the import of high-sulphur fuel for the first time in 2019 as part of a United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) campaign by lowering the high level of sulphur in diesel to 50 parts per million (ppm), from 3,000 ppm and to 300 ppm from 1,000 ppm in PMS.

However, with the unfolding event, it does appear that the Nigerian government could no longer afford the cost of quality, clean fuel as the cash-strapped federal government struggles to meet the mounting cost of monthly subsidy payments for petrol.

Even though Nigeria exports up to 2m barrels a day of high quality, low sulphur “Bonny Light” crude from the Niger delta, international dealers export to Nigeria around one million tonnes a year of low-grade, “dirty” fuel, made in Dutch, Belgian and other European refineries, and hundreds of small-scale artisanal refineries produce large quantities of illegal fuel from oil stolen from the network of oil pipelines that criss-cross the Niger delta, according to a report by the Guardian.

Nigerians had hoped that a long-awaited reform through a new petroleum industry law would address some of these challenges.  The passing of the law by the legislature and its assent by President Muhammadu Buhari was heralded as a new dawn for the industry. Unfortunately, the implementation of the new law was suddenly suspended as it could have led to the end of the subsidy regime, a politically inexpedient solution that would have led to unmitigated consequences for the ruling All Progressives Congress ahead of general elections in less than eighteen months.

For now, Nigerians must grapple with low-grade, dirty fuel as the government battles massive debts which IMF projects will gulp 92 per cent of revenue for services. This has made premium petrol a luxury that the government cannot continue to pay for despite the health and environmental consequences of the subsisting choice.

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Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Economy

Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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