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Inflationary Pressure Still Stretching Wallets – Coronation Merchant Bank

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Food Inflation - Investors King

Nigeria features as one of the top ten countries with the highest headline inflation rates in Africa, alongside countries such as Sudan (318.21% y/y), Zimbabwe (60.74% y/y) and Ethiopia (35.10% y/y) as at December ‘21. Over the past five years, headline inflation in Nigeria has remained at double-digit. Based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation stood at 15.63% y/y at end-December’21. This is a decline of 13bps when compared to 15.75% y/y recorded at end-2020.

The average headline inflation rate for 2021 is 16.98%; 377bps higher than the 13.21% recorded at end-2020. Based on our estimates, over the past five years average headline inflation is 14.32%.

Headline inflation trended upward between January to March ’21. However, between April to November ’21, consecutive declines were recorded in the headline inflation mainly on the back of positive base effects and CBN interventions into the agriculture sector. The uptick recorded in December’s headline inflation rate to 15.63% y/y can be attributed to seasonal effects on the back of increased spending during the festive period.

Inflationary pressure is still partly driven by challenges such as high energy prices, supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19, limited market access, and security challenges. For specific products, over the past year, fx depreciation in the parallel market has contributed to price hikes.

Food inflation rate stood at 17.37% y/y at end-2021. The average food inflation rate in 2021 is 20.50%, which is 440bps higher than the average of 16.11% recorded in 2020. Inflationary pressure in food can be largely attributed to security challenges, high logistics costs, storage issues, post-harvest losses, poor distribution network, and supply chain disruptions. There have been significant increases in the prices of staple foods such as bread and cereals,
potatoes, yams, meat, beans, fish, fruits, oils and fats, among others.

For instance, it costs N21,000 to buy a 50kg bag of beans in December ’20. However, a 50kg bag of beans was N56,000 in December ’21. This points towards a y/y increase of 167%. The core inflation rate was 13.87% y/y at end-2021. Meanwhile, the 12-month average of this sub-index stood at 13.14% in 2021; 285bps higher than the average of 10.29% recorded in the previous year. Based on our analysis, the highest increases in the core inflation rate in 2021 were recorded in the prices of household textile, vehicles, garments, major household appliances, hospital services, catering services, among others.

On a y/y basis, imported food price inflation stood at 17.34% y/y at end-December ‘21, increasing by 68bps. This is compared with 16.65% y/y in the corresponding period in 2020.

Over the past year, Kogi state recorded the highest headline inflation (nine out of 12 months). Meanwhile, Kwara state recorded the lowest headline inflation (six out of 12 months). It is worth noting that household baskets vary across states due to different consumption patterns.

We note that Nigeria is not the only African country that recorded a reversal in the downward trend of its headline inflation. During the past year, Ghana and Egypt also recorded upticks in their respective headline inflation rate. Factors such as sustained structural issues have contributed to inflationary pressure in Nigeria, while rising fuel prices, cost of electricity as well as health services are some reasons behind the inflation trend seen in Ghana and Egypt. Although Nigeria and Egypt have kept their respective monetary policy rates unchanged, at its meeting held in November ’21, the Bank of Ghana (BoG) hiked its policy rate by 100bps to 14.50% on the back of rising inflation.

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Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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