Connect with us

Economy

Inflationary Pressure Still Stretching Wallets – Coronation Merchant Bank

Published

on

Food Inflation - Investors King

Nigeria features as one of the top ten countries with the highest headline inflation rates in Africa, alongside countries such as Sudan (318.21% y/y), Zimbabwe (60.74% y/y) and Ethiopia (35.10% y/y) as at December ‘21. Over the past five years, headline inflation in Nigeria has remained at double-digit. Based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation stood at 15.63% y/y at end-December’21. This is a decline of 13bps when compared to 15.75% y/y recorded at end-2020.

The average headline inflation rate for 2021 is 16.98%; 377bps higher than the 13.21% recorded at end-2020. Based on our estimates, over the past five years average headline inflation is 14.32%.

Headline inflation trended upward between January to March ’21. However, between April to November ’21, consecutive declines were recorded in the headline inflation mainly on the back of positive base effects and CBN interventions into the agriculture sector. The uptick recorded in December’s headline inflation rate to 15.63% y/y can be attributed to seasonal effects on the back of increased spending during the festive period.

Inflationary pressure is still partly driven by challenges such as high energy prices, supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19, limited market access, and security challenges. For specific products, over the past year, fx depreciation in the parallel market has contributed to price hikes.

Food inflation rate stood at 17.37% y/y at end-2021. The average food inflation rate in 2021 is 20.50%, which is 440bps higher than the average of 16.11% recorded in 2020. Inflationary pressure in food can be largely attributed to security challenges, high logistics costs, storage issues, post-harvest losses, poor distribution network, and supply chain disruptions. There have been significant increases in the prices of staple foods such as bread and cereals,
potatoes, yams, meat, beans, fish, fruits, oils and fats, among others.

For instance, it costs N21,000 to buy a 50kg bag of beans in December ’20. However, a 50kg bag of beans was N56,000 in December ’21. This points towards a y/y increase of 167%. The core inflation rate was 13.87% y/y at end-2021. Meanwhile, the 12-month average of this sub-index stood at 13.14% in 2021; 285bps higher than the average of 10.29% recorded in the previous year. Based on our analysis, the highest increases in the core inflation rate in 2021 were recorded in the prices of household textile, vehicles, garments, major household appliances, hospital services, catering services, among others.

On a y/y basis, imported food price inflation stood at 17.34% y/y at end-December ‘21, increasing by 68bps. This is compared with 16.65% y/y in the corresponding period in 2020.

Over the past year, Kogi state recorded the highest headline inflation (nine out of 12 months). Meanwhile, Kwara state recorded the lowest headline inflation (six out of 12 months). It is worth noting that household baskets vary across states due to different consumption patterns.

We note that Nigeria is not the only African country that recorded a reversal in the downward trend of its headline inflation. During the past year, Ghana and Egypt also recorded upticks in their respective headline inflation rate. Factors such as sustained structural issues have contributed to inflationary pressure in Nigeria, while rising fuel prices, cost of electricity as well as health services are some reasons behind the inflation trend seen in Ghana and Egypt. Although Nigeria and Egypt have kept their respective monetary policy rates unchanged, at its meeting held in November ’21, the Bank of Ghana (BoG) hiked its policy rate by 100bps to 14.50% on the back of rising inflation.

Continue Reading
Comments

Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

Published

on

Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

Continue Reading

Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

Published

on

IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

Continue Reading

Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

Published

on

South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending