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Another Rebound Despite Hawkish Fed

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markets energies crude oil

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

It’s been a remarkable week so far in financial markets and it seems there’s still plenty more to come.

It’s been a tough month for investors, forced to watch on as central bank tightening expectations hammered risk appetite and, in turn, stock markets. This has been largely accepted as a consequence of inflation being allowed to run hot for too long but this week, the fightback has started.

Monday’s turnaround was incredible. The latest blow came from the geopolitical arena and at one stage, it looked like investors were out for the count but they picked themselves up and somehow found the upper hand. On Tuesday, it was Microsoft that landed a late blow but once more, stock markets quickly recovered and went into the Fed decision on the front foot.

By the time Powell arrived on the scene and delivered what could have been the knockout punch, investors were full of belief and today we’re seeing the benefit of the fightback earlier in the week. Rather than rolling over, defeated at the thought of five Fed hikes next year, investors are seizing on the lower valuations and the US has kicked off trading on Thursday on a strong note.

Whether that can be sustained over the coming weeks, we’ll see, but this week will give investors more confidence. Naturally, it’s helped by data showing the economy grew by 6.9% in the last quarter, capping off a strong year of growth, which along with a tight labour market may offer encouragement that higher inflation and interest rates won’t derail the recovery in 2022.

Oil has sight set on $100

Oil prices are making decent gains again on Thursday, with Brent once more above $90 which is naturally leading to talk of $100 oil and when it will happen. The environment continues to be very bullish for oil prices, given supply issues within OPEC+, strong demand, and now, geopolitical risk premiums. It’s hard to see what’s going to stand in the way of triple-digit oil, especially if we see no diplomatic breakthrough between Russia and the West any time soon. And based on Russia’s response to their proposals, it doesn’t seem a breakthrough is on the horizon.

Gold pummelled by hawkish Fed

Stock markets certainly took the Fed decision better than gold did, with the yellow metal falling 1.6% on Wednesday and now another 0.5% today. It seems that weeks of traders embracing gold like an old friend that offers inflation protection have quickly unwound and it’s been quickly cast aside. While it has found some support around $1,800 today and may remain supported to some extent out of fear that even five hikes won’t do it, it’s certainly fallen out of favour and may have peaked for now.

Bitcoin making a comeback?

Bitcoin is certainly enjoying the relief that this week has brought. The cryptocurrency was getting into dangerous territory but has recovered well as sentiment has improved and now looks in a much more comfortable position. Of course, volatility is still here and there’s plenty of underlying anxiety in the market that could see bitcoin tumble again but suddenly, $40,000 is looking more vulnerable than $30,000. A move above here could be the catalyst that the crypto crowd has been craving.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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