Connect with us

Markets

Omicron Fears Continue Receding

Published

on

Omicron variant

By Jeffrey Halley, Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, OANDA

Omicron fears continued to fade overnight, in North America at least, propelling the S&P 500 and Dow Jones to record closes, lifting oil prices, and weighing on the US Dollar. Even gold managed to recoup most of its intra-day losses as optimistic long positions were once again culled.

The upbeat mood was helped along by better than expected US Retail Sales and larger than expected drops in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, suggesting that despite the current virus wave, the US domestic economy continues to power forward. A dearth of heavy-duty data releases globally this week continues to leave markets driven by sentiment and by sentiment, I mean omicron headlines.

China has also shrugged of tightening virus measures in the city of Xi’an, and a Bloomberg report indicating that Evergrande Property has once again missed two offshore bond payments on Tuesday, totalling around USD 220 million. A Ministry of Finance official said that China would guide interest rates lower for 2022 government bond issuance, which despite sounding a little bit illegal potentially in other countries, is a reason for cheer in China stocks, which are performing well today. The controversial IPO of SenseTime in Hong Kong today, up 25.0%, is also lifting the animal spirits of local investors.

Today’s only significant data release in Asia, South Korean Industrial Production, rose to a 17-month high of 5.10% MoM. However, it was overshadowed by a virus-induced slump of 1.90% MoM by Retail Sales in November, with the Kospi gently lower today.

Tonights US Initial Jobless Claims will be of passing interest, a fall below 200,000 for the weekly number likely reinforcing the bullish sentiment dominating markets. Far more important will be China’s official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs for December released tomorrow morning. We should get a very binary outcome, up or down, on a decent deviation from the forecast 50.50 and 52.5 respectively. Otherwise, I expect the modestly bullish risk appetite washing through asset classes to continue as holiday season markets continue.

Asian equities are mixed.

Wall Street rose modestly overnight as receding omicron fears continued attracting buyers out of cover and back into equities, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones having record closes. The S&P 500 rose by 0.14%, the Nasdaq eased by just 0.10%, and the Dow Jones rose by 0.25%. Most price action needs to be taken with a grain of salt at this time of the year, but the omicron rear-view mirror trade appears to be favouring value over growth right now. In Asia, some long-covering has appeared, pushing futures on all three slightly lower by 0.05%.

Asia is having a mixed day in contrast, and it appears that some pre-New-Years-Eve book squaring is weighing on some markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has fallen by 0.35%, with South Korea’s Kospi down by 0.40%. Mainland China is enjoying a firm session, helped by dovish MoF comments earlier this morning around bond yields. The Shanghai Composite is 0.80% higher, while the CSI 300 has jumped by 1.05%. Hong Kong is just 0.30% higher, a successful SenseTime IPO balanced by a slump in Evergrande stock after more missed offshore bond payments.

Singapore has eased by 0.30%, while Taipei and Jakarta are just 0.05% lower, and Kuala Lumpur is down 0.10%. Bangkok is 0.05% higher with Manila closed for a public holiday. Similarly, Australian markets are also subdued ahead of New Year, the ASC 200 and All Ordinaries edging 0.10% lower. Asia, ex-China, looks to have closed their books for the year.

US Dollar fall resumes.

After trading sideways for a few sessions, receding omicron concerns amongst investors saw the US Dollar resume its gentle retreat overnight as traders moved out of defensive positioning. The dollar index fell by 0.28% to 95.89, before rising to 95.95 in listless Asian trading. Support at 95.85 remains marginally intact, and a daily close below 95.80 should signal further losses to 95.50.

Major currencies continue to build modest gains with EUR/USD rising to 1.1345, and GBP/USD jumping to 1.3485 as omicron hospitalisations remain controllable, even as infection numbers surge. USD/JPY has added 20 points to recapture 115.00 as defensive long-yen positioning continues to be unwound., AUD/USD has risen slightly to 0.7250, NZD/USD to 0.6845, and USD/CAD has eased to 1.2790 as investor risk appetite continues to improve.

Asian currencies have performed well this week, backstopped by a stubbornly firm Chinese Yuan, despite weaker PBOC fixings. One would have to say that the renewed risk appetite from international investors is being most strongly expressed in regional Asian currencies at the moment.

Oil edges higher.

Oil prices edged higher overnight thanks to larger than expected falls in US crude and gasoline inventories and receding virus nerves. Brent crude tested $80.00 a barrel intraday but finished the session 0.25% higher at $79.35. Crude inventories pushed WTI 0.75% higher to $76.60 a barrel. Asia has been modestly positive, lifting Brent and WTI 0.30% higher to $79.50 and $76.80 a barrel, respectively.

Brent crude has support at $78.15 and then $77.30 a barrel, its 100-day moving average (DMA). It has resistance at $80.00 a barrel, where it failed once again overnight.  WTI has support at $75.40 and then $74.45, it’s 100-DMA. It has resistance at $77.50 a barrel, near to its overnight high.

Gold flops and recovers.

Gold showed, once again, how frail bullish sentiment is as recent long positions were stopped out overnight, gold falling $26 an ounce intraday to $1789.50 before a weaker US Dollar led to an incipient recovery to $1801.00 in Asia today.

Gold’s attempts to stage a meaningful recovery remain unconvincing, with traders cutting long positions at the very first sign of trouble intra-day.It cleared the double top around the $1815.00 region but stalled just above at $1820.00.  It faces resistance also at $1840.00 an ounce.  Support lies at $1790.00, followed by $1780.00 an ounce. $1790.00 to $1815.00 continues to be my call for the range for the week.

With the US Dollar looking more vulnerable to positive virus sentiment now, gold could potentially move higher throughout this week, but I still doubt it could sustain those gains. Traders should stay nimble.

Continue Reading
Comments

Crude Oil

Dangote Refinery Leverages Cheaper US Oil Imports to Boost Production

Published

on

Crude Oil

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is capitalizing on the availability of cheaper oil imports from the United States.

Recent reports indicate that the refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day has begun leveraging US-grade oil to power its operations in Nigeria.

According to insights from industry analysts, the refinery has commenced shipping various products, including jet fuel, gasoil, and naphtha, as it gradually ramps up its production capacity.

The utilization of US oil imports, particularly the WTI Midland grade, has provided Dangote Refinery with a cost-effective solution for its feedstock requirements.

Experts anticipate that the refinery’s gasoline-focused units, expected to come online in the summer months will further bolster its influence in the Atlantic Basin gasoline markets.

Alan Gelder, Vice President of Refining, Chemicals, and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, noted that Dangote’s entry into the gasoline market is poised to reshape the West African gasoline supply dynamics.

Despite operating at approximately half its nameplate capacity, Dangote Refinery’s impact on regional fuel markets is already being felt. The refinery’s recent announcement of a reduction in diesel prices from N1,200/litre to N1,000/litre has generated excitement within Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

This move is expected to positively affect various sectors of the economy and contribute to reducing the country’s high inflation rate.

Furthermore, the refinery’s utilization of US oil imports shows its commitment to exploring cost-effective solutions while striving to meet Nigeria’s domestic fuel demand. As the refinery continues to optimize its production processes, it is poised to play a pivotal role in Nigeria’s energy landscape and contribute to the country’s quest for self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products.

Moreover, the Nigerian government’s recent directive to compel oil producers to prioritize domestic refineries for crude supply aligns with Dangote Refinery’s objectives of reducing reliance on imported refined products.

With the flexibility to purchase crude using either the local currency or the US dollar, the refinery is well-positioned to capitalize on these policy reforms and further enhance its operational efficiency.

Continue Reading

Markets

Havens Seekers Turn to Bonds Amid Israel-Iran Tensions, Crude Oil Prices Surge

Published

on

Crude Oil - Investors King

As geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, investors are seeking refuge in traditional safe-haven assets, particularly bonds, while crude oil prices surge on fears of supply disruptions.

The latest developments in the Middle East have sparked a rush to secure assets perceived as less risky amidst growing uncertainty.

With crude oil trading just over 1% higher, having given up earlier gains of as much as 4.2%, investors are closely monitoring the situation for any signs of real supply disruptions.

While there is currently no evidence of such disruptions, concerns persist that any escalation in tensions could affect oil flows through critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz or lead to renewed attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

Edward Bell, head of market economics at Emirates NBD PJSC in Dubai, said it is important to assess whether there have been any tangible impacts on the physical supply or shipment of oil products, indicating that if the answer is negative, the premium may need to be recalibrated.

Meanwhile, Oman’s foreign ministry issued a statement condemning what it termed Israel’s repeated military attacks in the region in response to the blasts in Iran. This is the first reaction from Gulf Arab states to the reported Israeli strike on Iran.

The ministry also called for international efforts to focus on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, where Israel is engaged in conflict with Iranian-backed Hamas, and to seek a resolution to the Palestinian issue.

Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics’ Chief Emerging Markets Economist, argued that the ball is now in Iran’s court, with its next actions likely to determine the broader economic impact of the situation.

In the financial markets, bonds are emerging as the preferred haven for investors seeking safety amid the heightened tensions.

Bunds in Europe, together with Treasuries in the US, are expected to rally, reflecting investor appetite for low-risk assets.

Crude oil prices are also benefitting from the uncertainty, driven primarily by concerns over potential supply disruptions.

As investors navigate the evolving situation, the search for safe-haven assets underscores the cautious sentiment prevailing in global markets.

The geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East continue to shape investor behavior, with a keen focus on developments that could impact global economic stability.

Continue Reading

Crude Oil

Oil Prices Decline for Third Consecutive Day on Weaker Economic Data and Inventory Concerns

Published

on

Crude Oil

Oil prices extended their decline for the third consecutive day on Wednesday as concerns over weaker economic data and increasing commercial inventories in the United States weighed on oil outlook.

Brent oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dropped by 51 cents to $89.51 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 41 cents to $84.95 a barrel.

The softening of oil prices this week reflects the impact of economic headwinds on global demand, dampening the gains typically seen from geopolitical tensions.

Market observers are closely monitoring how Israel might respond to Iran’s recent attack, though analysts suggest that this event may not significantly affect Iran’s oil exports.

John Evans, an oil broker at PVM, remarked on the situation, noting that oil prices are readjusting after factoring in a “war premium” and facing setbacks in hopes for interest rate cuts.

The anticipation for interest rate cuts received a blow as top U.S. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, refrained from providing guidance on the timing of such cuts. This dashed investors’ expectations for significant reductions in borrowing costs this year.

Similarly, Britain’s slower-than-expected inflation rate in March hinted at a delay in the Bank of England’s rate cut, while inflation across the euro zone suggested a potential rate cut by the European Central Bank in June.

Meanwhile, concerns about U.S. crude inventories persist, with a Reuters poll indicating a rise of about 1.4 million barrels last week. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is awaited, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Adding to the mix, Tengizchevroil announced plans for maintenance at one of six production trains at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan in May, further influencing market sentiment.

As the oil market navigates through a landscape of economic indicators and geopolitical events, investors remain vigilant for cues that could dictate future price movements.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending