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Nigeria in Focus

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The latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its series on foreign trade in goods shows the total value of trade as N13.28trn in Q3 ‘21, representing an increase of 10% on the preceding quarter and a y/y increase of 59%. Compared with Q2 ‘21, the total export value rose by just 1% to N5.13trn, and the import value rose by 17% to N8.15trn.

The net result was a deficit of N3.02trn, which followed a deficit of N1.87trn the previous quarter. This makes eight consecutive trade deficits. The data were drawn primarily from the Nigeria Customs Service.

• Total trade in 2020 declined primarily due to lower exports. The implementation of lockdowns and restrictions had an adverse effect on export activity last year. The total trade value as a percentage of GDP stood at 21% in 2020. In Q3 ’21, total trade as a percentage of GDP stood at 8.7%.

• For Nigeria, the NBS notes that the majority of imports in Q3 ’21 originated from East Asia (China, especially). The value of imported agricultural goods. Manufactured products as well as oil-related products rose by 21% q/q, 14% q/q and 35% q/q respectively.

• Regarding export destination, India remained the top exporting partner for Nigeria in Q3 ‘21. The five top exports partners were India, (14.8%) Spain (12.2%), Italy (8.7%), France (7.1%), and the Netherlands (4.7%). These five
countries accounted for 47.5% of the total exports in Q3 ’21.

• As usual, crude oil accounted for the largest share (78%) of total exports in Q3. However, the value of crude oil exports declined by 1.3% q/q but rose by 66% y/y. The crude oil price (Bonny Light) averaged USD73.8/b in Q3.

• We note that raw cocoa beans, sesame seeds, cigarettes, natural rubber and aluminium featured as non-oil export products in Q3 ’21.

• Nigeria exported goods valued at N347bn to fellow members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), compared with N363bn the previous quarter. This represented 52% of total exports within Africa.
Meanwhile, imports from ECOWAS accounted for 11% of the value of total imports.

• The leading port of operation during the quarter under review was the Apapa Port. Goods worth N4.7trn exited the country through this port. The next leading port of operation was Port Harcourt, through which goods worth N308bn were shipped to partner countries. Tin can Island was also very active and goods worth N104bn exited Nigeria through this port.

• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement is expected to contribute significantly towards the development of regional value chains. To maximise the benefits of the agreement, Nigeria’s manufacturing sector needs to be strengthened. Furthermore, local manufacturers need to significantly improve their service delivery and product standards if they are to be competitive in a burgeoning intra-continental marketplace.

• The UN Economic Commission for Africa estimates that tariff reductions under the AfCFTA agreement will boost intra-African trade by over 51% by 2022 (or by as much as 100% if non-tariff barriers are reduced). The Federal Executive Council has ratified Nigeria’s membership of the AfCFTA.

Global/Regional in focus

The COVID-19 pandemic generated an unprecedented global shock, with a devastating effect on global trade largely due to the lockdown measures that were put in place across countries as a strategy to mitigate the pandemic’s spread. The impact on international trade was evident in the decline in commodity prices in the first quarter of 2020 (e.g. crude oil, copper, among others) as well as reduced manufacturing output and disrupted operations across global value chains. Based on data from the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the initial COVID-19 shock led to a -13.3% or USD569.9bn decline in global merchandise trade from USD4.3trn in Q1 ’20 to USD3.7trn in Q2 ’20.

However, due to increase in vaccination as well as reopening of economies, merchandise trade recovered to USD5.6trn in Q3 ’21 compared with USD4.9trn recorded in the corresponding period in 2020. This is also 16.4% above the average recorded over the past eight quarters (USD4.8trn).

Turning to the African landscape, the pandemic also adversely impacted the continent’s trade, particularly in 2020. For instance, in Q2 ’20 when the pandemic was at its peak, and the associated lockdown measures affected a large share of the global population, merchandise trade declined by 15.1% in Q2 ’20 to USD89.7bn compared with USD105.6bn recorded in the preceding quarter. However, there have been notable improvements in African trade in 2021 with global economies reopening and increase in vaccine uptake (African vaccination rate currently stands at 8.6%).

Intra-African trade is currently low as it accounts for less than 15% of total African exports, suggesting higher potential benefits from greater regional trade. However, when informal cross-border trade is taken into account, Africa records higher intraregional trade, particularly in agriculture. In some African countries, informal cross-border trade accounts for c.90% of official trade flow and contributes c.40% to total trade within regional economic communities.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement has the potential to alleviate the effects of COVID-19 in Africa and intra-African trade. The agreement has several benefits including the potential to boost economies and bolster trade diversity, encourage industrialisation, eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers as well as contribute to sustainable growth, among others.

At the last CIBN Banking and Finance conference held in September ‘21, a special session on AfCFTA was taken by Dr. Hippolyte Fofack, Chief Economist and Director of Research and International Cooperation Department at the African Export-Import Bank. He noted the numerous benefits of the AfCFTA agreement ranging from the deepening and acceleration of industrialisation to mutually reinforcing the relationship between regional integration and intra-African trade.

The question, therefore, is “what are the top sectors with high potential within AfCFTA markets?”. From our vantage point, top merchandise trade sectors include vehicles and transport equipment, agro-food products, energy, metals and machinery, as well as chemical products. As for the services sectors, we highlight; ICT, infrastructure and logistics, finance, banking and insurance, education as well as health.

The successful implementation of the AfCFTA to boost both extra- and intra-African trade hinges upon successfully tackling supply-side constraints, closing the trade financing gaps, excessive reliance on foreign currencies, among others. Industry sources suggest that Africa’s current untapped export potential amounts to USD21.9bn, equivalent to 43% of intra-African exports. The AfCFTA agreement can potentially add USD9.2bn worth of exports through partial tariff liberalisation over the next five years. Additionally, the agreement could boost employment and earning capacities among marginalised groups (i.e. women and youth).

Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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power project

President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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