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Oil Reserves Under Threat from Climate Change?

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Climate Change is a global battle that has been fought for years now, amidst fears that lack of care for the environment could negatively impact human beings and living conditions in years to come. The oil market is also under threat from the phenomenon, as there are predictions that rising sea levels could affect oil reserves in Nigeria. 

In a study, risk consultancy firm Verisk Maplecroft discovered that climate change may lead to difficulty in Nigeria’s production of its large oil and gas reserves. Nigeria, Africa’s number two exporter, has most of its reserves in the Niger Delta region, which has a river system around it. This leaves the reserves vulnerable to possible drought and flooding due to climate change.

Apart from Africa, the report also said that the oil reserves in the rest of the world are in danger. The report cited problems like storms, rising tides and rising temperatures as possible affectors of the oil market.

An estimate of about 60 million, or a total of 40 percent of the world’s oil recoverable oil and gas reserves are under threat from the wild and volatile weather, according to the firm’s research. The most vulnerable to the attacks would include Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Nigeria.

However, Nigeria has come out to say that it has climate-related problems under control. The Minister of State for Environment, Sharon Ikeazor has said that the Federal Government of Nigeria has taken multiple steps as interventions in climate change, set to curb the problem. According to her, steps have also been made to increase the country’s resilience, to avoid strong consequences from climate change situations.

The Minister mentioned the Climate Change Bill which was passed by the National Assembly, which includes a long-term plan for the country to achieve a net zero carbon emission, national climate resilience and adequate financing for national development in the climate area.

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Nigerian Army Seizes 700,000 Liters of Stolen Petroleum in Sweeping Raid Across Four States

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In a series of raids across Rivers, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Delta states, troops from the 6th Division of the Nigerian Army seized 700,000 liters of stolen petroleum products, sealed 29 illegal refining sites, and arrested 24 suspected oil thieves.

In a statement issued by the Division’s Public Relations Officer, Lt. Col. Danjuma Jonah, it was noted that 14 boats involved in crude oil theft were also destroyed during the operation.

Jonah disclosed that the raids were conducted between October 28 and November 3, 2024.

He revealed that the troops intercepted a large wooden boat carrying over 150,000 liters of stolen crude oil in the Kula area of Akuku-Toru Local Government Area of Rivers State.

Providing a breakdown of the operation, Jonah stated, “Another boat carrying 50,000 liters of crude oil was seized, while three illegal refining sites were dismantled, and cooking pots containing 20,000 liters of stolen diesel were confiscated. Troops also dismantled ten illegal refining sites in Kay and Abesa in Akuku-Toru LGA, seizing 400,000 liters of illegally refined diesel.”

In Bayelsa State, soldiers deactivated two illegal refining sites at Boma Creek in Southern Ijaw LGA, recovering storage tanks holding over 2,500 liters of stolen crude. Similarly, operations in Obughene Creek in Southern Ijaw yielded over 4,500 liters of stolen crude, while another 3,000 liters of illicit product were seized at West Boma Creek.

In Akwa Ibom State, troops intercepted two Toyota Camrys loaded with illegally refined diesel, concealed in nylon bags, totaling 3,000 liters. The vehicles were stopped along the Ikot Abasi-Abak road, and the drivers were detained.

In Delta State, multiple raids were conducted, including the interception of a tricycle in Kwale, Ndokwa West LGA, carrying stolen iron pipes allegedly taken from decommissioned Oando pipelines.

Another raid in Patani town uncovered a storage dump containing 40 jerricans of stolen products, while troops patrolling Uro Community waterways intercepted a wooden boat with 200 sacks of premium motor spirit,” he concluded.

The statement added that suspects arrested during the raids have been handed over to relevant authorities for prosecution.

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OPEC+ Supply, Trump-Harris Election Face Off Lend Support to Oil Prices

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The decision of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ to delay plans to increase output for another month and the close call of the presidential elections in the United States triggered a 2 percent rise in oil prices.

Brent futures were up $1.98, or 2.7 percent at $75.08 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.98, or 2.85 percent to $71.47.

OPEC+ said it would extend its output cut of 2.2 million barrels per day for another month in December at a meeting on Sunday.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) agreed to extend the November 2023 voluntary production adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day for one month until the end of December 2024.

The move is aimed at boosting oil prices amid uncertain demand and accelerating supply, with an eye on the imminent US presidential election, though analysts predict a limited impact.

Also speaking on Monday, OPEC’s Secretary General, Mr Haitham Al Ghais said on Monday that OPEC remains very positive on demand for oil in both the short and long term.

The market has also shifted focus to the American presidential election between Democratic presidential nominee and current Vice President, Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump on Tuesday (November 5).

So far, the outcome has shown that the election is tight as it could take days after voting ends to know the eventual winner.

The market will also be looking at the developments in the Middle East, especially with anticipation that Iran was preparing to attack Israel from Iraq within days.

Markets were also watching a new tropical storm that was forecast to form on Monday in the Caribbean and threaten offshore oil production along the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil companies like Shell have moved its non-essential personnel from six platforms, adding it currently expects no other impacts on its production across the Gulf of Mexico.

There will be anticipation of what the US Federal Reserve will do at the next meeting on Thursday with expectations high that the US central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

Also, investors will be looking to China where the government is expected to approve additional stimulus to boost the slowing economy in the world’s largest oil importer.

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Brent Rises to $73 Per Barrel as Oil Producer Iran Plans Another Attack on Israel

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The international crude benchmark, Brent Crude, rose to $73 per barrel as it rose 29 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $73.10 a barrel on Friday on expectations that Iran will attack Israel from Iraq in the coming days.

The US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 23 cents, or 0.3 percent to settle at $69.49.

The market has seized on the news from Thursday that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraq within days.

However, market analysts point out that the impact on oil prices may be muted as the attacks signify a show of strength rather than action. This is why there wasn’t a much price boost.

Iran’s backed groups are currently fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. So, this has seen the two countries engaged in a series of retaliatory strikes within the broader Middle East warfare set off by fighting in Gaza.

In a related development, the US asked Lebanon to declare a unilateral ceasefire with Israel to revive stalled talks to end hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.

Another factor supporting prices is the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+ which could delay plans to increase supply in December.

The group has always maintained that its planning production cuts rollback would depend on market conditions.

The US, the world’s largest oil producer has been seeing an increase in its production with Exxon Mobil saying its global output hit an all-time high while Chevron also said its US production hit a record high.

This aligns with projections that annual output was on track to hit a record 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025.

Last month, OPEC’s production increased by 370,000 barrels per day in October after Libya’s political resolution and its resultant 500,000 barrel-per-day output boost.

Libya’s output recovery led OPEC to raise its production to nearly 30 million barrels daily, even as Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia lowered their output.

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