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CPI Reaction: Inflation Heats up to a 39-year High, Stocks Rally as Rate Hike Expectations Get Pushed Back

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By Edward Moya

US stocks rallied after the latest inflation report did not come in as hot as many were expecting. Wall Street did not see inflation with a 7-handle and that allowed risky assets to rise, while the dollar turned negative as traders anticipate the Fed won’t be forced to deliver a rate hike well before summer.

The stock market rally did not stick as economists still mostly agree that this is not the peak for inflation and that pricing trends will continue to track higher. The preliminary University of Michigan sentiment report showed modest rebounds across sentiment, current conditions, and expectations. Inflation expectations over both the next year remained anchored at 4.9% and the 5-10 year at 3.0%.  Despite today’s rebound, consumer sentiment still looks vulnerable and will likely struggle if these widespread price increases continue.

CPI

November’s headline month-over-month CPI reading increased 0.8% was higher than the 0.7% estimate but lower than the prior month’s reading of 0.9%.  Some of the inflation is moderating but the year over year reading came in at 6.8%, the hottest since 1982.

Broad based price increases had groceries (meat, poultry, fish, and eggs) skyrocket 12.8%, airline prices were up 4.7%, energy costs were 3.5% higher (gasoline delivered another 6.1% increase), new vehicles rose 1.1%, while used cars increased 2.5% and apparel climbed 1.3%.

Appetite for equities remains undeterred as traders appear to be confident that eventually at some point in the middle of next year a lot of these pricing pressures will fade.

Peloton (**Spoilers below for HBO’s Sex and the City premier)

2021 has been a rough ride for Peloton shares as they appear to be headed back to pre-pandemic levels. The latest slide could be attributed to another downgrade, this time from Credit Suisse, but some traders are in shock over how Peloton played a major role in the Sex and the City premier. The fitness equipment maker was dealt another potential PR crisis (earlier in the year, they had a tragic treadmill accident).

Death by Peloton was all over social media after Carrie Bradshaw, the protagonist in HBO franchise Sex and the City lost her husband to a heart attack shortly after he had an intense workout on his Peloton bike.

Peloton was aware HBO was planning on using the bike but was unaware of the larger context surrounding the scene. Peloton Spokesperson Kelly emailed a statement from a member of their health and wellness advisory council that blamed Mr. Big’s heart attack on his “extravagant lifestyle” and history of heart disease.

Peloton shares have gone from a pandemic favorite trade to a stock no one wants to touch.

Oil

WTI crude seems to be following US stocks more so than stockpile data. This is ending up being a rather good week for crude prices as the crude demand outlook hit from Omicron might be limited.  OPEC+ continues to have a firm handle on the direction of prices and can disrupt any selloffs with a quick reverse of their output increase.

Once Europe gets beyond this wave of restrictive movements and the north stops seeing milder weather, the rally in oil prices could easily make a run towards the highs seen last month.

Gold

Gold is slowly getting its mojo back after a hot inflation report mostly matched estimates.  A lot of the inflation is stickier than anyone wants and that should keep gold’s medium- and- long-term outlooks bullish. Gold just needs to survive a firm consensus on how many rate hikes the Fed will start off with next year.  An accelerated rate hiking cycle is a big risk and could trigger panic selling that could prove troublesome for gold in the short-term, but that still seems unlikely to happen.

Gold’s recent trading range of $1760 and $1800 might continue to hold up leading into next week’s FOMC decision.

Bitcoin

Before the US inflation report, many traders were noticing that Ethereum dominance is settling in. This has been a tough week for cryptos and Ethereum mostly outperformed. The global crypto market cap is around $2.2 trillion and while Bitcoin is still king with 39% dominance, Ethereum has now earned 20%. There is still a lot of motivation for more crypto products to be created and the growth outlook next year should limit whatever selling pressure enters.

Bitcoin prices initially after US inflation hit a 39-year high, but the rally stalled after reaching the $50,000 level. Given what happened last weekend, some leveraged traders are thinking twice about holding positions into this weekend. Some traders are anticipating a sideways market until the FOMC policy decision on Wednesday, so hesitancy to hold over the weekend might grow. Hodlers will likely remain unfazed and feel mostly confident as need for inflation hedges will grow given the widespread rising pricing trends.

 

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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Nigeria, China Collaborate to Bridge $18 Billion Trade Gap Through Agricultural Exports

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In a concerted effort to address the $18 billion trade deficit between Nigeria and China, both nations have embarked on a collaborative endeavor aimed at bolstering agricultural exports from Nigeria to China.

This strategic partnership, heralded as a landmark initiative in bilateral trade relations, seeks to narrow the trade gap and foster more balanced economic exchanges between the two countries.

The Executive Director of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, revealed this collaboration during a joint meeting between the Council and the Department of Commerce of Hunan province, China, held in Abuja on Monday.

Addressing the trade imbalance, Ayeni said collaborative efforts will help close the gap and stimulate more equitable trade relations between the two nations.

With Nigeria importing approximately $20.4 billion worth of goods from China, while its exports to China stood at around $2 billion, representing a $18 billion in trade deficit.

This significant imbalance has prompted officials from both countries to strategize on how to rebalance trade dynamics and promote mutually beneficial economic exchanges.

The collaborative effort between Nigeria and China focuses on leveraging the vast potential of Nigeria’s agricultural sector to expand export opportunities to the Chinese market.

Ayeni highlighted Nigeria’s abundant supply of over 1,000 exportable products, emphasizing the need to identify and promote the top 20 products with high demand in global markets, particularly in China.

“We have over 1,000 products in large quantities, and we expect that the collaboration will help us improve. The NEPC is focused on a 12-18 month target, focusing on the top 20 products based on global demand in the markets in which China is a top destination,” Ayeni explained, outlining the strategic objectives of the collaboration.

The initiative not only aims to reduce the trade deficit but also seeks to capitalize on China’s growing appetite for agricultural products. Nigeria, with its diverse agricultural landscape, sees an opportunity to expand its export market and capitalize on China’s increasing demand for agricultural imports.

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IMF Urges Nigeria to End Fuel and Electricity Subsidies

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In a recent report titled “Nigeria: 2024 Article IV Consultation,” the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised the Nigerian government to terminate all forms of fuel and electricity subsidies, arguing that they predominantly benefit the wealthy rather than the intended vulnerable population.

The IMF’s recommendation comes amidst Nigeria’s struggle with record-high inflation and economic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report highlights the inefficiency and ineffectiveness of subsidies, noting that they are costly and poorly targeted.

According to the IMF, higher-income groups tend to benefit more from these subsidies, resulting in a misallocation of resources. With pump prices and electricity tariffs currently below cost-recovery levels, subsidy costs are projected to increase significantly, reaching up to three percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024.

The IMF suggests that once Nigeria’s social protection schemes are enhanced and inflation is brought under control, subsidies should be phased out.

The government’s social intervention scheme, developed with support from the World Bank, aims to provide targeted support to vulnerable households, potentially benefiting around 15 million households or 60 million Nigerians.

However, concerns persist regarding the removal of subsidies, particularly in light of the recent announcement of an increase in electricity tariffs by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).

While the government has taken steps to reduce subsidies, including the removal of the costly petrol subsidy, there are lingering challenges in fully implementing these reforms.

Nigeria’s fiscal deficit is projected to be higher than anticipated, according to the IMF staff’s analysis.

The persistence of fuel and electricity subsidies is expected to contribute to this fiscal imbalance, along with lower oil and gas revenue projections and higher interest costs.

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