MTNN Still Maintaining the Largest Share – Coronation Merchant Bank

The latest data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the industry regulator, show that internet subscriptions stood at 140 million in October. This represents a y/y decline of -8.2%. However, we noticed a m/m increase of c.61,000 in subscriptions. The y/y decline can be partly attributed to the FGN’s subscriber identification Module (SIM) card regulation, which requires each SIM card to be linked to a National Identification Number (NIN). Based on our channel checks, the stress associated with the NIN-SIM linkage has resulted in customers abandoning SIMs of devices that are not their primary source for communication or internet connectivity.

Furthermore, over the past year, there has been a visible shift to fibre broadband internet subscription plans which do not require SIM cards to function. Residential estates are increasingly tilting towards this option given the heavy reliance on internet services at home due to the ongoing work-from-home approach.

Among the mobile network operators, MTN Nigeria (MTNN) accounted for the largest share (38%) of total subscriptions. We noticed from the commission’s data that in October MTNN recorded a 0.1% m/m increase in internet subscriptions. Airtel and Glo recorded m/m increases of 1.6% and 0.7% respectively. Meanwhile, 9mobile recorded a m/m decline of -1.3%.

Furthermore, the commission’s data show that outgoing porting activities was highest for 9mobile while Airtel was the chief recipient of incoming porting activities.

The latest earnings release by MTNN show that revenue grew by 22.9% y/y in Q3, compared to the 31.4% y/y growth it delivered in Q2. The solid sales growth was largely driven by a 57.3% y/y growth in data revenue, on the back of sustained data demand supported by fintech, digital services and partly by base effect.

Broadband penetration currently stands at 39.8%. Based on the national broadband plan 2020-2025, the FGN projects a broadband penetration target of 70% by 2025. In March, Anambra state waived right-of-way (RoW) fees for telecom operators as part of the state’s efforts to drive broadband expansion. The harmonisation of right-of-way (RoW) charges across states and local government areas would assist with boosting broadband penetration. The FGN proposed a RoW fee of N145 per linear meter of fibre.

We understand that the NCC plans to auction two slots of 3.5GHz spectrum license this month. The sale of these slots of 3.5GHz spectrum is expected to facilitate 5G rollout across the country. The commission disclosed that the remaining three slots will be auctioned over the next two years. The NCC has pegged the reserve price for the 3.5GHz spectrum at USD197.4m. Industry sources suggest that the successful 5G rollout will result in a boost to internet data speed at ultra-low latency as well as more reliable and increased network capability.

Turning to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) capital importation into the telecommunications sector declined by -99.7% y/y to c.USD342,000 in Q2 ’21. This significant decline in investments into the sector can be linked to general investor apathy given the hazy macroeconomic environment triggered by the pandemic as well as infrastructure deficit in the telecommunications sector, high cost of services, low digital literacy, among others.

For Nigeria to become an active member of the current digital transformation within the global village, huge investments in telecommunications infrastructure are required. A deepened broadband penetration feeds directly into better internet access and the ripple effect of the latter on the economy attracts immeasurable benefits.

According to the latest national accounts, telecommunications posted double digit growth of 10.9% y/y in Q3 2021. Furthermore, the latest inflation report shows that communications prices rose by 10.6% y/y in October compared with 10.7% y/y recorded in the previous month. The telecommunications segment was already expanding rapidly and has been further boosted by the prevalence of working from home due to the COVID-19 pandemic.