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Green Shoots in the Non-oil Economy – Coronation Merchant Bank

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Non oil

The latest national accounts released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that GDP grew by 4.0% y/y in Q3 ’21 compared with 5.0% y/y recorded in Q2 ’21.

This growth can be partly attributed to positive base effects, steady progress in stemming the spread of the coronavirus and resumption of economic/business activity. The oil economy contracted by -10.7% y/y in Q3 ‘21 compared with a contraction of -12.7% y/y recorded in Q2 ’21. Meanwhile, the non-oil economy grew by 5.4% y/y compared with 6.7% y/y recorded in Q2 ‘21.

In our chart, we highlight the top seven performing sectors in the non-oil economy, among those accounting for at least 1% of GDP.

The best performer was the finance and insurance sector which posted a growth rate of 23.2% y/y compared with a contraction of -2.5% y/y recorded in Q2 ’21. Meanwhile, within the sector, the financial institutions segment grew by 25.5% y/y compared with a contraction of -4.5% y/y in Q2 ‘21. This healthy improvement is also reflected in the strong performance of tier 1 banks as seen in their respective Q3 ’21 earnings report.

The second-best performer was the transportation and storage sector which grew by 20.6% y/y compared to 76.8% y/y posted in Q2 ’21. The sector contributed 1.0% to GDP. The major drivers of the sector were rail transport segment (59.9% y/y) and air transport segment (33.3% y/y). This was largely due to positive base effects and improvements in air and rail passenger traffic as global economies lifted lockdown measures. Road transport, which makes up 79% of the entire sector, grew by 21.1% y/y.

The trade sector grew by 11.9% y/y in Q3 ‘21 compared with 22.5% y/y recorded in the previous sector. The sector contributed 14.9% to GDP. We suspect that the release of pentup demand, particularly for consumers within the middle-income bracket may have supported trade activities.

The information and communications sector grew by 9.7% y/y in Q3 ’21 compared with 5.6% recorded in Q2 ‘21. Its major contributor, telecommunications, posted a growth rate of 10.9% y/y compared with 5.9% y/y recorded in the previous quarter. This expansion is mainly due to an increase in demand for voice, data, and digital services.

Additionally, entertainment via streaming services has picked up significantly and contributed to the segment’s growth.

The manufacturing sector grew by 4.3% y/y in Q3 ’21 compared with 3.5% y/y recorded in Q2 ’21. The sector contributed 9.0% to total GDP. Growth was significant in the chemical and pharmaceutical products segment (10.0% y/y), due to sustained demand for pharmaceutical products by the health sector. Its largest segment, food, beverages, and tobacco grew by 6.1% y/y, and the cement segment expanded by 5.7% y/y in Q3 ’21.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to impact domestic manufacturing positively. However, to maximise the benefits of the agreement, local manufacturers need to significantly improve their service delivery and product standards.

The construction and real estate sectors grew by 4.1% y/y and 2.3% y/y in Q3 ’21 respectively. The growth registered in both sectors could be attributed to development activities on the back of recommencement of delayed projects which were paused due to the slowdown triggered by the pandemic. The World Bank has estimated that Nigeria would need to invest USD3trn in infrastructure to reduce the infrastructure deficit in the country.

Based on the FGN’s 2022 budget proposal, N5.4trn (USD12.9bn) has been earmarked for capital expenditure. From this allocation, N1.5trn has been set aside for expenses on infrastructure. This includes provisions for works and housing, power, transport, water resources and aviation.

Looking ahead, we expect growth of 1.5% y/y in Q4 ’21

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Economy

Nigerians Can Now Check Food Prices Live on Mobile App, Says BOI

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food storage

The Bank of Industry (BOI) has launched a mobile app for Nigerians to check live food prices in the country.

The web version, Pricesense.ng helps users check the wholesale and retail prices of food items such as rice, beans, tomato, maize and others in different states across the country.

According to BOI, the states available for checking of the prices are Borno, Plateau, Rivers, Oyo, FCT, Lagos, Enugu and Kano.

It noted that the app provides for analytics of food prices across brand type, quantity and at different dates of the year.

One of the challenges currently assailing Nigerians is food.

However, prices of food vary from state to state. Hence, the decision of BOI to come up with the app so that Nigerians would be abreast of the current prices of food in states and take necessary steps that would better suit their conditions.

Aside from food insecurity, food prices have been on the rise since the inception of President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

As at June 2024, food inflation crossed 40 percent while many poor Nigerians languish in acute hunger.

There are many factors responsible for the food shortage and inflation of prices.

Some of them are lack of fertile policies by the Federal and State Governments, disruption in regular weather patterns, insecurity in food-producing regions and high cost of farm inputs such as fertilisers among others.

The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) had accused traders of price gouging leading to the high cost of staple foods in the country.

The FCCPC boss, Mr. Tunji Bello, stated that some traders forming cartels in markets across the country are responsible for the sharp rise in food prices.

While the commission acknowledged that factors like the exchange rate and the increase in petrol prices have made previous prices unsustainable, it criticized the disproportionate price hikes, which Mr. Bello attributed to cartels seeking to exploit consumers.

The commission this year had closed some supermarkets it accused of unethical market practices with respect to prices of goods. Furthermore, the commission had earlier ordered traders across the country to crash prices of goods and services within one month or face its actions.

Also, some notable traditional rulers in the country, especially in the South West, had accused some leaders of traders of forcing others to sell at fixed prices.

These monarchs including the Ooni of Ife, Oba Enitan Ogunwusi and late Owa Obokun of Ijesaland, Oba Gabriel Adekunle Aromolaran had banned market union associations in their domains from fixing prices of food items for traders and neither should they force them from joining associations.

However, some international development organisations like the World Bank, International Rescue Committee (IRC) and the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FA0) had predicted record number of food insecure people in the country for 2024.

In particular, the World Bank noted that around seven states in the country would witness severe hunger while the FAO noted that up to 32 million Nigerians in 2024 would be food insecure with women and children mostly affected.

Efforts by the federal government to quell the crisis include the approval of duty-free food imports for 150 days and distribution of grains to all 36 states of the federation.

Furthermore, the federal government has also begun the sale of rice at a discount price of N40,000 per 50kg bag.

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Economy

High Cost of Living: FG Removes VAT on Diesel, Cooking Gas

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Value added tax - Investors King

The Federal Government said it has removed Value Added Tax (VAT) on diesel and cooking gas, among others as part of measures to cushion the harsh economic realities in the country.

Unveiling two major fiscal incentives, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, said VAT was modified to reduce the hardship citizens battle.

Edun, in a statement by the Director, Information and Public Relations at the Ministry of Finance, Mohammed Manga, said the incentives are aimed at transforming Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

He identified the incentives as value-added tax (VAT) modification order 2024 and notice of tax incentives for deep offshore oil and gas production, in accordance with the Oil and Gas Companies (tax incentives, exemption, remission, etc.) Order 2024.

Explaining the incentives further, the Minister stated that the VAT Modification Order 2024 introduces exemptions on a range of key energy products and infrastructure, including Diesel, Feed Gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), Electric Vehicles, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure, and Clean Cooking Equipment.

According to him, the measures are designed to lower the cost of living, reinforce energy security, and boost the nation’s transition to cleaner energy sources.

In addition, he said the Notice of Tax Incentives for Deep Offshore Oil & Gas Production provides new tax reliefs for deep offshore projects, adding that the initiative is aimed at positioning Nigeria’s deep offshore basin as a premier destination for global oil and gas investments.

The minister maintained that the reforms are part of a broader series of investment-driven policy initiatives championed by President Tinubu, in line with Policy Directives 40-42.

He said the policies are pointers to the Federal Government’s strong commitment to fostering sustainable growth in the energy sector and enhancing Nigeria’s global competitiveness in oil and gas production.

Edun assured that the initiatives would ensure Nigeria’s firm track to reclaim its position as a leader in the global oil and gas market.

According to him, these fiscal incentives demonstrate President Tinubu’s unwavering commitment to fostering sustainable growth, enhancing energy security, and driving economic prosperity for all Nigerians.

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Economy

Farmers Warn of Looming Food Crisis in Nigeria, Urge Government Action

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Food Security - Investors King

The All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) has identified flooding, insecurity, low mechanization, and difficulty in accessing credit as some of the factors responsible for the country’s food shortage.

The farmers warned that Nigeria could face severe food shortages if the government fails to address these challenges.

This was disclosed in a statement by the National President of AFAN, Kabir Ibrahim, on Monday.

Ibrahim called on the Federal Government to intervene urgently to prevent the country from slipping into a worse situation.

He revealed that measures such as food importation, support for smallholder farmers, and the distribution of palliatives and agricultural inputs should be implemented.

He urged the government to adopt seamless agribusiness practices, particularly through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Ibrahim also encouraged the government to offer incentives and affordable credit to small and large-scale agribusiness farmers, noting that this would boost food production and distribution.

However, Ibrahim pointed out that palliatives and mass importation are only temporary measures.

He urged the government to consider long-term solutions, especially sustainable agribusiness practices that support smallholder farmers.

He said, “Various efforts such as the importation of some food items for a given period in defined quantities, support to smallholder farmers or small-scale producers, and distribution of palliatives and agricultural inputs are works in progress.

“These should be implemented transparently and dispassionately for them to impact the food system by immediately bringing down prices.

“The most probable respite can come by encouraging seamless agribusiness practices through AfCFTA and other available windows.

“The engine room of food production in Nigeria still revolves around the smallholder farmers, who should be encouraged to scale up by enabling them to get real value for their produce, among a myriad of other incentives.”

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