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Crude Oil

US$80 Per Barrel is Relatively Healthy – Coronation Merchant Bank

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Crude oil - Investors King

Last week, Brent Oil briefly hit USD80/b rising by 43% when compared with USD55.9/b recorded at end-Jan 2021. This is also the highest level since October ’18. Oil prices have been rising as a result of supply disruptions and recovering demand due to the opening of economies, vaccination rollouts. Recently, global oil supply has taken a hit from hurricanes Ida and Nicholas passing through the Gulf of Mexico and damaging U.S oil infrastructure. This has contributed to the uptick in oil prices.

The decline in oil prices in 2020 can be largely attributed to the Saudi Arabia and Russia oil price war as well as the economic downturn triggered by the covid-19 pandemic. The pandemic had a severe impact on the global economy. It led to a persistent decline in international oil prices due to the global halt of major production and manufacturing, leading to a decline in demand for oil and a supply glut. Oil prices reached a five-year low of USD21.4/b in 24 April ’20.

According to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), global oil demand growth in 2021 is unchanged from its assessment in August ‘21.

However, the increased risk of covid-19 cases associated with the Delta variant have affected oil demand prospects, resulting in downward adjustments to Q4 ‘21 estimates.

Global oil demand in 2021 is estimated to average 96.7mbpd compared with the average threshold of 100mbpd. In September, non-OPEC liquids (i.e. petroleum products) supply growth in 2021 was revised down by 0.17mbpd. The revisions are mainly due to outages in North America from a fire on Mexico’s offshore platform and the disruptions caused by Hurricane Ida.

Nigeria’s bonny light crude oil price increased steadily from an average of USD42.1/b in 2020 to USD67.6/b at end-Sep 2021. We note that the oil economy accounted for 7.4% of the country’s real GDP in Q2 ’21, compared to 9.3% in Q1. Oil production has recorded declines of -25% y/y and -6.1%m/m to 1.24mbpd (excluding condensates) in August ’21 compared with the corresponding period in 2020.

Although Nigeria has the capacity to produce 2.5mbpd, average oil production ytd is c.1.35mbpd (excluding 300,000bpd of condensates). This is in compliance with the OPEC+ production quota and below the 1.86mbpd benchmark in the 2021 national budget.

There are several reasons for the suboptimal oil production level in Nigeria. The oil sector is faced with operational issues stemming from poor pipeline networks due to the country’s fragile infrastructure. We note that, over 500 vandalized oil assets were recorded between April ‘20 to April ‘21, significantly stunting production output. Furthermore, based on our estimate Nigeria’s average oil production ytd is 1.35mbpd compared with the current OPEC production quota of 1.6mbpd. Other reasons for suboptimal oil production include the low level of investments into the sector, operational constraints, lack of regulatory reforms, insecurity threats and social unrests in the oil-producing regions.

Ironically, rising oil prices might be a significant problem for Nigeria due to rising costs of the settlement of fuel subsidy receipts. According to the NNPC, to ensure continuous premium motor spirit (PMS) supply and effective distribution across the country, it has made deductions from its contributions to the federation accounts allocation committee (FAAC) in recent months. These deductions include N170.4bn in August, N114.3bn in July, and c. N126bn in June from its FAAC remittance. Over the past nine months, the NNPC contributed N349.3bn to FAAC.

Going forward, the global oil price outlook remains uncertain. However, the U.S. supply constraints are likely to continue to support oil prices, as Ida-related outages could affect U.S. supply till end-2021. Oil price is likely to remain well above USD60/b till end-2021. In consultation with the NNPC and other stakeholders, the budget office of the federation proposed a benchmark oil price of USD57/b for 2022. The underlying market fundamentals, global economic outlook and market sentiments were considered when computing this oil price benchmark.

The OPEC+ supply target for this year is yet to be achieved, some of its members including Nigeria still find it difficult to meet their oil production quotas. There is a need for Nigeria to tackle the current technical and operational challenges to boost production levels. On a brighter note, the recently passed Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) is likely to assist with providing a leg-up for the industry.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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