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AfCFTA: Stakeholders Express Concerns Over Slow Intra-African Trade

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African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)- Investors King

Stakeholders have highlighted the underlying issues hampering the growth of intra-African trade despite the ratification of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement by 39 out of 54 countries on the continent.

At the 50th anniversary of the Manufacturer’s Association of Nigeria, the Secretary-General of the AfCFTA, Wamkele Mene, said interconnectivity and transit of goods were among the major challenges.

He said various tariffs and levies across the borders increased the cost of connectivity between nations on the continent.

He said, “Trade in Africa has not risen above 18 percent of capacity, and a large part of that trade is informal and in primary commodities.

“Africa has historically lacked depth in manufacturing and industrial capacity to solve unemployment and erase poverty. These reasons were why solutions, of which the agreement is part, were drawn up in 2012 by leaders in the African Union.

“Our duty at the AfCFTA Secretariat is to engage governments and ministers to establish policy environment for manufacturing to thrive and drive investment in the productive sectors such as pharmaceuticals, auto, agro-processing and other value chains that will boost Africa’s manufacturing capacity and internal trade.”

The Vice President of the Afreximbank, Amr Kamel, noted that African countries generally scored low on the World Bank’s ease of doing business ranking due to the relatively harsh business environment compared to countries that ranked higher.

He said coupled with the logistics bottlenecks and infrastructural deficit, trade-in Africa became complicated.

He explained that Afreximbank noted that the lack of financing was not a major problem but the scarcity of bankable projects on the continent.

Kamel said, “Getting a project to a stage that is bankable is quite a challenge. At Afreximbank, we created a project preparation facility designed to build what it takes to get the project to a level where it is bankable.

“On the issue of infrastructure, a very good way of addressing that is the development of industrial parks and special economic zones. It is much easier to provide necessary infrastructure and regulatory requirements in a much smaller geographical area than for the whole continent.

“We are working with the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment through providing advice on how to set up these facilities and financing projects in Nigeria.”

The President of the Dangote Group of Companies, Aliko Dangote, said to enhance the potential of the AfCFTA, governments had to address problems in cross-border movements.

He said, “It takes us two weeks to get our trucks to Ghana, a trip of not more than 10-12 hours. We spend 10 days moving to Togo from Nigeria. Governments need to have the political will to tackle these border issues.

“Why should intra-African trade still be at an average of 15 percent? We need to get it to about 55 to 60 percent. Another thing is to reduce the cost of gas.”

Dangote said for Africa to be globally competitive in manufacturing, the continent must produce high-quality products at the cheapest cost possible.

“What I think we need to do is concentrate first on meeting our domestic demand. If you can get this right, you can then export to other markets. Government has to remove most of the hurdles of infrastructure and implement friendly regulations,” he added.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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