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Fintech CEO: Instability in Afghanistan Offers Real-World Test for Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies

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 As the Taliban seized control of the structures of power throughout Afghanistan, inflation has begun to skyrocket, and there has been a run on the banks, many of which were forced to close when they ran out of cash. The country is without payment processors like Paypal, and Western Union has stopped operating in the country.

“The Afghan economy is still largely a cash economy, and, while its unlikely that many will be able to immediately exchange their cash into cryptocurrency, there are signs that some in the country began to use digital assets before the government fell. Seeing the conditions on the ground, it was easy to see the allure of a decentralized digital currency as a way to protect the value of assets,” said Richard Gardner, CEO of Modulus, a US-based developer of ultra-high-performance trading and surveillance technology that powers global equities, derivatives, and digital asset exchanges.

“Obviously the current geopolitical situation is a mess, but, economically, Afghanistan is an extreme case of inflation and instability. In principle, the same theory of storing value, which applies in places like Nigeria, would apply to Afghanistan. The difference is in the technological infrastructure, which, of course, is more abundant in Nigeria,” said Gardner. “Even still, there are reasons to believe that, for some, it could provide a safe haven.”

Earlier this year, the Fantom Foundation, in conjunction with the Afghanistan Ministry of Health, announced that a trial run of the National Medical Importation Security Initiative was successful. The initiative used blockchain-based technologies to stop the counterfeiting of pharmaceuticals sold throughout the country.

“Not unlike other developing countries, education is the best way to expand access to technology. Of course, those with access to technology are going to be more interested in digital assets. There have been reports of students in universities in Afghanistan who learned about such things as opening a digital wallet,” Gardner explained. Anecdotal surveys also show that interest in Afghanistan has increased significantly over the past year, and, according to CNBC, Google Trends data shows that searches for cryptocurrency-related terms rose significantly in July.

Modulus is known throughout the financial technology segment as a leader in the development of ultra-high frequency trading systems and blockchain technologies. Over the past twenty years, the company has built technology for the world’s most notable exchanges, with a client list which includes NASA, NASDAQ, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Barclays, Siemens, Shell, Yahoo!, Microsoft, Cornell University, and the University of Chicago.

“When you look at what’s happened in Afghanistan, and when you realize that the citizenry of the country is likely to see significantly more financial hardships before the situation normalizes, it is easy to see the allure of cryptocurrencies. It will be interesting to see how the CBDC race bears out. In the future, will citizens of countries like Afghanistan look around to neighboring countries, identify a CBDC which they believe to be stable, and invest their savings there to prevent against inflation? If there aren’t regulations against it, that’s a significant possibility — and another reason why all central banks should want to move to develop their own CBDC with vigor,” said Gardner.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Bitcoin Holds Above $67,000 Amid Trump Win Bets

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Bitcoin is holding above $67,000 after yesterday’s correction after breaching the $69,000 level and rising to its highest level since late July.

Yesterday’s correction comes after an upward trend that investors are pushing to continue in light of a set of supporting factors, whether from the massive inflows into cryptoinvestment products or from more bets on Donald Trump winning the White House again.

Cryptocurrency investment products recorded massive inflows last week, reaching $2.2 billion, which represents the highest level since last July, with Bitcoin accounting for most of these flows that went to US spot ETFs, according to CoinShares. Net flows to these funds amounted to more than $294 million yesterday alone, according to SoSo Value.

This comes with two weeks left until the US presidential election. While the Polymarket betting market indicates that Republican candidate Trump is likely to win with a 63% probability, the betting site has sparked controversy over who is behind the significant increase in Trump bets. In contrast to Polymarket’s results, the poll average indicates that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is ahead by 48.2% compared to 46.4% for Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight.

While this disparity and fluctuation in polls and predictions is likely to keep cryptocurrencies vulnerable to sharp volatility in the coming days, as the identity of the winner of the White House presidency might shape the future of the industry.

However, the futures market is presenting a mixed story and is questioning the sustainability of Bitcoin’s bullish trend. Bitcoin futures open interest regained its record level of more than $40 billion yesterday, according to CoinGlass, despite the price correction. This correction only resulted in a very small liquidation of the long positions of about $28 million yesterday.

Of that $40 billion, $12.5 billion was on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which also represents a new record high for Bitcoin futures on the US’s largest futures exchange. This reflects the increasing involvement of institutional investors in driving price action.

What is concerning is the decline in the long/short ratio from 1.04 on Sunday to 0.94 today, which may reflect increasing bearish bets in futures market, which in turn may indicate a possible reversal of the bullish trend and a renewal of yesterday’s losses soon.

Written by Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS

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Bitcoin Fails to Hold $63,000 Amid Weak Risk Appetite, Growing Selling Pressure

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Bitcoin remains below $63,000 after failing to hold above it over the past two days while Ethereum is also struggling to reclaim $2,440.

The crypto market has been trading sideways since the beginning of this week.

The cautious moves in the crypto market come amid uncertainty over a range of economic and political factors in the US and geopolitics in the Middle East.

Add to that the potential selling pressure that the US government may exert with its permission to sell around 70,000 Bitcoin.

The Supreme Court has allowed the US Marshals Service to proceed with the sale of 69,370 Bitcoins seized from the Silk Road online store, which would be the largest sale of its kind in history. While the nature and pace of this selling is not yet known, it will not necessarily put downward pressure on prices if it is done in over-the-counter (OTC)
transactions, according to Beincrypto.

As for the economic side, in light of the surprise labor market numbers that were much better than expected and Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech, hopes for a rapid continuation of interest rate cuts this year have diminished. While the relatively high rates remain for a longer period and the continued rise in Treasury bond yields will weaken appetite for risky assets in general, including cryptocurrencies.

Whereas, after the hypothesis of a half-percentage point cut at the next November meeting was the most likely, it has now become excluded in the Fed Fund futures market, and the probability of a quarter-percentage point cut has become 87%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The remaining 13% is for the possibility of keeping current rates unchanged.

The state of caution may also prevail in the markets in the coming weeks, as we anticipate the presidential elections in the United States, which will begin next month. While the outcome of these elections could cause a structural shift in the crypto industry.

Far away, in the Middle East, markets are still anticipating the nature of the expected escalation in the region, especially regarding the nature of the Israeli response to the unprecedented attack from Iran and the nature of the counter-response. While one of the most prominent scenarios is targeting energy facilities, which would bring inflation back to the forefront, which in turn may require central banks to keep interest rates high.

 

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US Bitcoin ETFs Suffer Record Net Outflows Amid Global Market Uncertainty

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US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have posted their longest run of daily net outflows since listing at the start of the year, part of a wider retreat from riskier assets in a challenging period for global markets.

Investors pulled close to $1.2 billion in total from the group of 12 ETFs over the eight days through Sept. 6, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The drop comes amid a rocky period for shares and commodities on economic growth worries.

Mixed US jobs data and deflationary pressure in China are both taking a toll on traders. The uncertainty is buffeting the cryptocurrency market, whose gyrations have become more closely tied to moves in stocks based on a rising short-term correlation between the two.

Bitcoin has struggled in September, posting a loss of approximately 7%. But the largest digital asset eked out modest gains over the weekend and climbed roughly 1% to $54,870 as of 1pm on Monday in Singapore.

“The small relief rally seems to be driven in part by some prominent influencers closing out their shorts,” said Sean McNulty, director of trading at liquidity provider Arbelos Markets.

He cited as an example a recent social media post from Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX trading platform.

An improved showing by Donald Trump, the pro-crypto Republican nominee for the US presidential election, in polls and prediction markets may also be playing a role, McNulty said.

He reported greater demand for options hedges in case Tuesday’s debate between Trump and Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris stirs volatility. Harris has yet to detail her stance on crypto.

The US Bitcoin ETFs investing directly in the original cryptocurrency debuted in January with much fanfare. Unexpectedly strong demand for the funds helped to drive the token to a record high of $73,798 in March.

The inflows subsequently moderated and Bitcoin’s year-to-date rally has cooled to about 30%.

The token will likely trade in its recent $53,000 to $57,000 range until the US releases consumer-price data on Wednesday, said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a provider of liquidity for trading in digital-asset derivatives.

The inflation numbers may shape expectations for the pace of anticipated monetary easing by the Federal Reserve in the US.

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