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Kenya’s Economy is Staging a Partial Recovery but Uncertainty Remains High and Prospects Hinge on the COVID-19 Vaccination Drive

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kenya Econom - Investors King

Kenya’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 4.5 percent in 2021, signaling a partial recovery from the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic which caused growth to stall last year. Economic activity is estimated to accelerate to above 5 percent in 2022 and 2023, according to the latest World Bank analysis.

The prospects for Kenya’s continuing recovery, which is uneven across sectors with some still heavily affected by the pandemic, hinge on the progress of the vaccination effort. The base case is for adequate agricultural harvests and a pick-up in industrial activity aided by rising demand from the recovering global economy. However, many services activities face a longer path to recovery. According to the 23rd edition of the Kenya Economic Update, Rising Above the Waves, private consumption is expected to strengthen, supported by a recovery in wages and household incomes, and strong remittances. The report notes that consumer confidence and business activity should be supported by ongoing vaccination efforts and, over time, the return of mobility to pre-pandemic levels. Monetary policy accommodation is likely to continue in the near term, in the absence of inflationary shocks. The fiscal deficit is projected to shrink from 8.7 percent of GDP in FY2020/21 to 4.2 percent in FY2023/24 due to fiscal consolidation efforts.

“The outlook remains unusually uncertain and contingent on the course of the pandemic. We expect that Kenya’s economy will continue its recovery, albeit unevenly and for some sectors only gradually, supported by the government’s plan to vaccinate the entire adult population by mid-2022,” said Keith Hansen, World Bank Country Director for Kenya.

A slower deployment of vaccines due to supply challenges, logistical impediments to domestic distribution, and vaccine hesitancy, could weaken the recovery. Furthermore, external factors such as setbacks to the global economy due to a resurgence in infection rates could adversely impact the projected recovery in Kenya’s goods exports, tourism, and capital inflows. A slower than anticipated vaccination rollout, fiscal slippages, adverse weather conditions, and a weaker global economic backdrop could all challenge the projected recovery. In an adverse scenario, near term average growth would be lower, at 3.7 percent. On the upside, the pandemic’s economic impacts could fade faster than anticipated, including due to accelerated vaccination, leading to a faster recovery in economic activity.

Against this backdrop, policymakers face the challenge of controlling the pandemic, supporting economic recovery, and laying the foundation for green, resilient, and inclusive development, while reducing macro-financial vulnerabilities.

Policymakers can support Kenya’s economic recovery by remaining responsive to the still very fluid pandemic situation, whilst prioritizing vaccination in the short term and fiscal consolidation over the medium term,” said Alex Sienaert, Senior Economist for Kenya. “The proposed FY2021/22 Budget reflects these priorities and its implementation would contribute to beginning to rebuild fiscal space.

The special focus section of this economic update provides an update on the labor market in Kenya as the country moves into a crucial period of its demographic transition. Over the next decade, Kenya’s labor force population will increase by an average one million per year, as the largest youth cohorts move into working age. To reap a potential demographic dividend, it will be imperative to build on Kenya’s development progress to date, reinvigorate economic transformation, and shift the labor force progressively into more productive activities. The COVID-19 pandemic has added to this already considerable challenge by disrupting economic activity and causing job losses. On the labor supply side, investments and reforms to strengthen human capital and social protection are at the center of enabling Kenya’s fast-growing workforce to participate in and drive jobs and economic transformation.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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