After an impressive first half, the current bull run in stock markets is likely to continue for the second half of 2021 – but there are also headwinds on the horizon, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations.
The bullish message from Nigel Green, the chief executive and founder of deVere Group which has $12bn under advisement, comes as analysts watch to see if the MSCI AC World Index’s gains of around 12% hold through 30 June, they would be beaten only by a 15% rise in 2019.
Mr Green says: “Global stocks are headed for their second-best performance since 1998 for the first half of this year.
“After a highly impressive run in the first half of 2021 and the second quarter, what happens next? Will it continue?”
He continues: “Yes, the current bull run in stock markets will continue for the second half of 2021.
“The continuing robust economic growth in major economies, strong corporate earnings, ultra-low interest rates, and a sleeping bond market, will all mean that investors looking for yield will keep piling into equities, topping up their portfolios to build wealth.
“There’s more than a hint of Goldilocks in the near-term.”
But the upbeat sentiment gripping global stock markets also needs to remain in-check as headwinds loom on the horizon.
“Investors must avoid complacency in the second half 2021. There are two key things they should watch out for.
“First are changes to policies as central banks and governments look to scale back their unprecedented support, which has helped bolster asset prices.
“Second is inflation. It remains too early to say either way whether inflation is transient or persistent. But the debate will stir-up volatility which will define the second half of 2021 in global financial markets.
“Of course, if we get more sustained inflation, central banks will have to start moving sooner rather than later on interest rates.”
Mr Green concludes: “The factors that have driven the first half of the year will continue – and some may develop even further – in the second half, meaning the bullish sentiment will maintain its grip over stock markets.
“Whether the second half performs quite as brilliantly as the first is unsure, but the opportunities for strong returns for investors remain.”
Nigerian Stock Market Continues to Decline
Nigerian equities market declined for a third consecutive day on Thursday as 24 stocks closed in the red against 14 stocks that gain.
Investors traded 266,115,101 shares worth N4.216 billion during the trading hours of Thursday, against 243,185,049 shares valued at N3.747 billion that were transacted in 3,777 deals on Wednesday.
Market value dipped by N71 billion to N22.494 trillion, down from N22.565 trillion recorded on Wednesday. The Nigerian Exchange Limited All-Share Index lost 0.32 percent to 43,108.77 index points.
Sectorial analysis showed the banking industry closed in the red after losing 116 basis points on the back of a broad decline in ETI, Unity Bank and Union Bank of Nigeria Plc. Jaiz Bank and Fidelity Bank recorded gains.
Also, the consumer industry lost 106 basis points on a decline in Nigerian Breweries, Interbrew and Cadbury. Honeywell Flour led gainers with +9.76 percent.
Oil and gas and industrial industries shed 164 basis points and 1 basis point respectively. The Exchange year-to-date return depreciated by 7.05 percent.
|HONYFLOUR||N 3.69||N 4.05||0.36||9.76 %|
|AIICO||N 0.59||N 0.64||0.05||8.47 %|
|REGALINS||N 0.36||N 0.39||0.03||8.33 %|
|UPL||N 2.50||N 2.70||0.20||8.00 %|
|IKEJAHOTEL||N 1.25||N 1.35||0.10||8.00 %|
|MRS||N 15.20||N 13.70||-1.50||-9.87 %|
|CHAMS||N 0.23||N 0.21||-0.02||-8.70 %|
|ETI||N 8.75||N 8.00||-0.75||-8.57 %|
|CHIPLC||N 0.62||N 0.57||-0.05||-8.06 %|
|UNITYBNK||N 0.55||N 0.51||-0.04||-7.27 %|
Stock Market Extends Decline on Wednesday
Nigerian stock market extended decline for a second consecutive day on Wednesday despite 23 stocks closing in the green against 18 stocks that lost.
Investors exchanged 243,185,049 shares valued at N3.747 billion in 3,777 transactions on Wednesday, against 217,972,819 shares valued at N2.908 billion that were traded in 4,158 deals on Tuesday.
Market value dipped by N12 billion from N22.577 trillion recorded on Tuesday to N22.565 trillion on Wednesday while the All-Share Index sheds 0.02 percent to close at 43,245.02 index points.
The banking sector gained 25 basis points on positive close of Fidelity Bank, Zenith Bank, Sterling. Wema Bank and Access Bank both closed in the red.
The consumer goods sector also gained, expanding by 9 basis points on Unilever, Dangote Sugar, Flour Mill and Nestle. Honeyflour and Intbrew shed 9.78 percent and 1.87 percent, respectively.
The oil and gas sector lost 24 basis points amid the US decision to increase the global oil supply from its reserve. Industrial index gained 13 basis points. See other details below.
Top Five Gainers
|LIVINGTRUST||N 0.80||N 0.88||0.08||10.00 %|
|CHAMS||N 0.21||N 0.23||0.02||9.52 %|
|AIICO||N 0.54||N 0.59||0.05||9.26 %|
|IKEJAHOTEL||N 1.15||N 1.25||0.10||8.70 %|
|NGXGROUP||N 15.30||N 16.50||1.20||7.84 %|
|HONYFLOUR||N 4.09||N 3.69||-0.40||-9.78 %|
|ETERNA||N 6.65||N 6.05||-0.60||-9.02 %|
|REGALINS||N 0.39||N 0.36||-0.03||-7.69 %|
|CORNERST||N 0.56||N 0.52||-0.04||-7.14 %|
|WEMABANK||N 0.83||N 0.80||-0.03||-3.61 %|
Nigerian Stock Market Dips Marginally on Tuesday
The Nigerian stock market extended its decline on Tuesday despite investors transacting over N11 billion worth of Oando shares on Monday.
Investors traded 217,972,819 shares valued at N2.908 billion in 4,158 deals, against 2,402,071,798 shares worth N16.467 billion that were transacted in 4,811 on Monday.
The banking industry gained 21 basis points on the back of positive close from Wema Bank, Access Bank, UBN and ETI.
However, the consumer goods sector dipped by 1 basis point as the decline in Intebrew and Dangote Sugar outweighed profit from Honeywell Flour, Flourmill and Unilever. Oil and gas sector lost 20 basis points while the industrial sector closed flat.
Market value of all listed equities depreciated by N1 billion from N22.576 trillion it closed on Monday to N22.577 trillion on Tuesday.
All-Share Index declined by 0.01 percent to 43,255.14 index points, down from 43,260.13 index points posted on Monday. The Exchange year-to-date return moderated to 7.41 percent.
|HONYFLOUR||N 3.72||N 4.09||0.37||9.95 %|
|UPL||N 2.30||N 2.50||0.20||8.70 %|
|CHIPLC||N 0.54||N 0.58||0.04||7.41 %|
|GLAXOSMITH||N 6.05||N 6.40||0.35||5.79 %|
|FTNCOCOA||N 0.40||N 0.42||0.02||5.00 %|
|UPDC||N 1.39||N 1.26||-0.13||-9.35 %|
|NEM||N 2.05||N 1.86||-0.19||-9.27 %|
|MANSARD||N 2.35||N 2.23||-0.12||-5.11 %|
|CHAMS||N 0.22||N 0.21||-0.01||-4.55 %|
|ROYALEX||N 0.49||N 0.47||-0.02||-4.08 %|
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