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Nigeria Economy to Rebound by 3.1%  in 2021 – Vetiva Research

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Vetiva Research has predicted that the Nigerian economy will rebound by 3.1 percent in 2021.

In its second half (H2) 2021 macroeconomic outlook for the Nigerian economy, titled, “On the cusp of recovery,” the Lagos-based firm appraised developments on the global, continental and domestic scenes.

On the global scene, the analysts reviewed the COVID-19 virus and vaccine developments, the global recovery trajectory, and the build-up in global inflation.

Vetiva’s Economist, Ibukun Omoyeni, noted that economic indicators suggest advanced economies could rebound faster than emerging economies, in contrast with the expectations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“This is because sustained policy support and strong vaccination drive in advanced economies could place them ahead of emerging economies, which are reeling from resurging outbreaks of infectious variants,” he said.

Omoyeni identified five key global macroeconomic themes which could gain traction in the second half of the year.

This borders around vaccine diplomacy, geopolitics, de-dollarisation & digital currencies, commodity super-cycle, and a global minimum tax.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, he attributed the mild contraction in the region to the slower spread of the virus, low death rates, the dominance of the agricultural sector and rebound in commodity prices.

According to the report, the region may not recover as fast as other regions due to limited fiscal space and emerging inflationary threats.

“However, economies with tolerable inflation outcomes could dish out rate cuts to support their respective economies. For many others, high and rising inflation amid health risks could cause many central banks to hang their monetary policy tools. While a hawkish rendition has supported Mozambican Metical, the surge in commodity prices, robust remittance inflows, and fundraise from the international debt market have supported some other Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) currencies,” the report said.

On the domestic scene, a panoramic view of the Nigerian economy was carried out. After articulating the drivers of growth in major sectors of the economy, Vetiva’s economist estimated that the Nigerian economy could grow by 3.1 percent in 2021.

On inflation, the report envisaged a tussle between FX pressures and high base effects in the H2 of the year. While base effects are expected to influence a moderation in inflation, the economist noted an average inflation expectation of 17.34 percent for 2021.

Amid the moderation in inflation, Omoyeni expects the CBN to maintain MPR at 11.5 percent while noting the possibility of further dovish moves as inflation decelerates.

“Given the transition to a post-pandemic environment, we do not see scope for rate hikes in 2021, as investors are more concerned with FX unification efforts and the CBN with economic recovery,” he said.

On the fiscal sector, Vetiva’s economist noted that the resurfacing of subsidies could result in a higher fiscal deficit. On the fiscal sustainability of the states, the report noted that “only two states and the Federal Capital Territory generated 50 percent of its revenue internally…this poses a major medium-term risk should there be an earlier-than-anticipated shift to cleaner forms of energy, especially as global warming remains a hot topic in global parlance.”

Thus, Vetiva advocated for the implementation of incentives to attract foreign direct investment in line with the framework laid down by the Nigerian Investment Promotion Council (NIPC) and the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC).

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Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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