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Key Indicator Shows Renewed Inflow Of Capital Into Bitcoin

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An indicator that has historically marked major price bottoms is pointing to a renewed flow of capital into bitcoin.

The stablecoin supply ratio oscillator created by analyst Willy Woo and tracked by blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has risen from a 12-month low of -2.6 to -1.9 in the past four weeks.

The recovery indicates capital has been flowing from stablecoins into bitcoin, Glassnode tweeted Thursday. In other words, bargain hunters look to have employed stablecoins to buy the dip in bitcoin and broader crypto markets.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies with value tied to an external reference like the U.S. dollar. They are essentially proxies for fiat currencies, offering a price-stability advantage that other digital assets do not have, and are widely used to fund crypto purchases. The total market capitalization of stablecoins has surged 10-fold year-over-year to more than $100 billion, according to Messari.

The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) is the ratio of the bitcoin supply and the stablecoin supply denoted in BTC. “When the ratio is low, the buying power for bitcoin is high, as the same amount of USD can buy relatively more BTC. Conversely, a high ratio means fiat has the weak buying power,” Glassnode said in the explainer blog post.

The stablecoin supply ratio oscillator helps traders identify extreme readings on the SSR and any impending trend change. The metric, however, doesn’t consider the fiat-based trades or bitcoin derivatives and is not a perfect indicator.

Nevertheless, it has proved to be a reliable indicator of changes in the past.

For example, bitcoin’s previous bull runs, including the one seen in the final quarter of 2020, kicked off with a below -2 reading on the oscillator. So, the recent recovery could be a signal of an impending change of fortunes for bitcoin and broader crypto markets.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $31,789, representing a Key Indicator Shows Renewed Inflow Of Capital Into Bitcoin8.47 percent drop in the last 24 hours. The leading cryptocurrency fell sharply in mid-May and has been restricted mainly to the $30,000 to $40,000 range ever since, barring the temporary dip to $29,000 earlier this week.

The market capitalization of tether (USDT), the largest stablecoin, has increased from $59 billion to over $64 billion in the past four weeks.

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Bitcoin

US Bitcoin ETFs Suffer Record Net Outflows Amid Global Market Uncertainty

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US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have posted their longest run of daily net outflows since listing at the start of the year, part of a wider retreat from riskier assets in a challenging period for global markets.

Investors pulled close to $1.2 billion in total from the group of 12 ETFs over the eight days through Sept. 6, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The drop comes amid a rocky period for shares and commodities on economic growth worries.

Mixed US jobs data and deflationary pressure in China are both taking a toll on traders. The uncertainty is buffeting the cryptocurrency market, whose gyrations have become more closely tied to moves in stocks based on a rising short-term correlation between the two.

Bitcoin has struggled in September, posting a loss of approximately 7%. But the largest digital asset eked out modest gains over the weekend and climbed roughly 1% to $54,870 as of 1pm on Monday in Singapore.

“The small relief rally seems to be driven in part by some prominent influencers closing out their shorts,” said Sean McNulty, director of trading at liquidity provider Arbelos Markets.

He cited as an example a recent social media post from Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX trading platform.

An improved showing by Donald Trump, the pro-crypto Republican nominee for the US presidential election, in polls and prediction markets may also be playing a role, McNulty said.

He reported greater demand for options hedges in case Tuesday’s debate between Trump and Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris stirs volatility. Harris has yet to detail her stance on crypto.

The US Bitcoin ETFs investing directly in the original cryptocurrency debuted in January with much fanfare. Unexpectedly strong demand for the funds helped to drive the token to a record high of $73,798 in March.

The inflows subsequently moderated and Bitcoin’s year-to-date rally has cooled to about 30%.

The token will likely trade in its recent $53,000 to $57,000 range until the US releases consumer-price data on Wednesday, said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a provider of liquidity for trading in digital-asset derivatives.

The inflation numbers may shape expectations for the pace of anticipated monetary easing by the Federal Reserve in the US.

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Bitcoin ETF Allocations Surge 14% as Institutions Embrace Volatile Market

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Institutional investment in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has surged by 14% in the second quarter of 2024, according to a recent report by asset manager Bitwise.

This increase in allocations comes despite a 12% decline in Bitcoin’s price during the same period, signaling a robust appetite among institutional investors for cryptocurrency assets.

The report, released on Monday, highlights that the number of institutional investors holding Bitcoin ETFs rose from 965 in the first quarter to 1,100 in the second quarter.

This uptick showed a growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, with these investors now accounting for 21.15% of the total assets under management (AUM) in Bitcoin ETFs, up from 18.74% in the previous quarter.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, said “The biggest question in crypto right now is whether institutions and professional investors will allocate to crypto in a major way. The fact that they are increasing their Bitcoin ETF allocations even when prices are down is a promising sign.”

Despite the drop in Bitcoin’s price, which fell by 12% in Q2, institutional investors have continued to show strong support for Bitcoin ETFs.

This trend suggests that these investors are either confident in a future price recovery or are strategically positioning themselves for long-term gains.

The report notes that institutional investors ended the quarter holding $11 billion in Bitcoin ETFs, a significant commitment that contrasts with some criticisms suggesting that these ETFs are primarily dominated by retail investors.

Bitwise disputes this view, highlighting that Bitcoin ETFs have seen adoption at an unprecedented rate among institutional players.

“The institutions are coming, and they’re coming in size,” Bitwise’s report asserts. “If institutions are willing to invest in Bitcoin during such a volatile period, it’s exciting to consider what might happen if we enter a bull market.”

This institutional enthusiasm for Bitcoin ETFs is further supported by major financial players such as Goldman Sachs, which disclosed in a recent 13F filing that it holds positions in seven out of eleven Bitcoin ETFs available in the U.S.

This level of engagement from Wall Street giants signals a broader acceptance and potential mainstreaming of Bitcoin investment.

Looking ahead, Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin ETF inflows will continue to grow, with expectations for larger allocations in 2025 and beyond.

The report suggests that the increasing institutional investment in Bitcoin ETFs could be a precursor to more substantial market shifts, particularly if the cryptocurrency market experiences a significant upswing.

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Bitcoin Slips as US Government Moves $600 Million in Seized Crypto

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Bitcoin declined by approximately 9% in August amid the US government’s decision to move $600 million worth of seized Bitcoin to a wallet on Coinbase, the prominent cryptocurrency exchange.

The latest market turmoil has raised concerns among investors as they grapple with the potential for further government sales of confiscated digital assets.

The US government, which is believed to control roughly $12 billion in cryptocurrency, has recently transferred a significant amount of Bitcoin, sparking worries about a potential market flood.

According to Arkham Intelligence, the move is a response to the ongoing investigation into the seizure of Bitcoin from illicit activities.

The transfer to Coinbase has led to increased speculation and selling pressure in the market.

Khushboo Khullar, a venture partner at Lightning Ventures, noted, “The temporary downward pressure on Bitcoin prices is largely due to the market’s reaction to these large-scale transfers. We anticipate that this gap will close as market conditions stabilize.”

The broader cryptocurrency market has mirrored Bitcoin’s struggles. A gauge of the top 100 digital assets saw its sharpest decline since November 2022 on August 5, aligning with a broader slump in risk assets worldwide.

This downturn in digital assets contrasts sharply with the performance of global equities, which have rebounded to near record highs after initial fears of a US economic slowdown were allayed by reassuring data.

Bitcoin’s price, which reached a record $73,798 in March due to optimism over looser US monetary policy and rising interest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), has since faced headwinds.

The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures on the Binance exchange, a key indicator of speculative interest, has become notably negative, reflecting a decrease in enthusiasm from fast-money traders.

In addition to the governmental actions, the ongoing US presidential race adds another layer of uncertainty. With pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris both vying for influence, the future regulatory landscape for digital assets remains unclear.

Harris, in particular, has yet to outline her stance on cryptocurrency regulation, adding to the market’s apprehension.

As of Monday morning in London, Bitcoin was trading at $58,630, with other major cryptocurrencies such as Ether and Solana also experiencing mixed performance.

Despite the current challenges, some market analysts remain hopeful that Bitcoin’s price will stabilize as the market absorbs recent developments and adjusts to the evolving regulatory environment.

Investors and analysts will be closely monitoring the impact of these government actions and broader market trends in the coming weeks, as they navigate the volatile landscape of digital assets.

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