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Exchange Rate Unification Will Instill Confidence In Nigeria Economy- FSDH Reports

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FSDH Group- Investorsking

A report by the First Securities Discount House (FSDH) Research has described the recent move by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to achieve exchange convergence a positive impact regulation, saying it would ensure clarity and improve market confidence in the economy.

The report also stated that the move would enable Nigeria to unlock funding from several multilateral organisations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank and ease the pressure on the exchange rate in the medium term.

It further stated that the central bank’s current move towards a unified exchange rate was expected to ensure flexibility and market-determined rate, which is stated to a large extent would, reduce arbitrage, round-tripping, and could move the naira towards its fair value.

“However, exchange rate unification is not a sufficient factor in attracting significant capital into the country. What should follow the CBN’s recent actions, in our view, are a set of consistent forex policies that seek to improve market liquidity and prevent every form of forex arbitrage and unnecessary forex subsidies.

“The CBN will also need to clear forex backlogs to further instill confidence in the market. In February 2021, the IMF estimated backlogs at US$2 billion. We believe this will be done gradually,“ FSDH explained.

“The CBN’s move is expected to instill confidence in the market as foreign investors are more likely to participate in a less fragmented market that can be fairly predictable.

“Given this framework, the options available for the CBN include raising the interest rates to incentivize inflow of capital into the economy that may hurt economic recovery in subsequent quarters or relax capital control rules/restrictions and simultaneously increase market interventions to prevent significant depreciation of the naira that may result in external reserves depletion,” the report stated.

The report, which was titled “Nigeria’s Foreign Exchange Policy Note- Navigating through the Tides of Uncertainty,” adding that: “As much as Nigeria needs effective management of foreign exchange and unification of exchange rate to boost confidence, the supply shortage of foreign exchange is still a major problem.

“Increasing foreign exchange supply from non-CBN sources is vital in maintaining exchange rate stability in the I&E window and reducing speculative activities.”

The report predicted that the CBN would be faced with, “policy trilemma” to explain Nigeria’s foreign exchange and monetary choices.

The ‘trilemma’ refers to the trade-offs a government faces when making crucial monetary policy decisions because only two out of the three objectives could be achieved at a time.

It added: “With COVID-19, Nigeria maintained the two objectives of having a fixed/managed official exchange rate and monetary autonomy at the expense of free movement of capital. This was evident in the capital controls and forex backlogs.

“The recent move by the CBN to adopt the I&E market rate as the official rate will enable the CBN to control interest rate while capital controls can be relaxed, but the exchange rate will have to be flexible.

“Whether the naira appreciates or depreciates will depend on the level of capital inflows and outflows, CBN’s involvement in the market and the external reserves position.

“This means the only way to maintain a stable exchange rate is to attract even more capital into the economy or intervene heavily in the forex market using the external reserves.”

It added that the planned issuance of Eurobond by the government would provide some relief in the market and boost external reserves in the short term.

“From the fiscal and trade perspective, Nigeria will need to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement to boost non-oil exports and increase forex inflows. Providing direct incentives for businesses to produce for exports, implementing port reforms as well as developing comprehensive industrial and trade strategies are important steps that the government must take.

“We believe that the Naira will settle around N430 per dollar in the latter part of 2021. Forex inflows are expected to also improve, especially when the Eurobond is issued, but increasing demand pressures from imports and other payments will continue to exert pressure on the rate,” FSDH stated.

FSDH further reported, “Our 2021 forecasts for key indicators include real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1.3 percent, an average exchange rate of N430/$ and an inflation rate of 16.6 percent.”

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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