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Economy

NLC Meets on Govs’ N380/Litre Petrol Proposal Today, Experts Warn FG

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Nigeria Labour Congress - Investors King

The Nigeria Labour Congress will today (Friday) come up with its position on the recommendation by governors that the price of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol, be raised from N162/litre to N408.5/litre.

A committee set up by the Nigeria Governor’s Forum had on Wednesday called for immediate removal of petrol subsidy. It recommended a petrol price of between and N380/litre and N408.5/litre.

However, the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry on Thursday advised the Federal Government to be tactful when removing petrol subsidy. They recommended that it be done gradually.

Also, officials of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation told our correspondent that the oil firm was awaiting the Federal Government’s position on the recommendation of the governors before it would adjust petrol price.

NNPC has been the sole importer of petrol into Nigeria for more than three years running.

When contacted by our correspondent on Thursday for the position of the NLC on the latest recommendation of the governors as touching petrol price, the Deputy President, Joe Ajaero, replied, “Congress will come up with a position latest tomorrow (Friday).”

Officials of both the NLC and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas workers in separate exclusive interviews had last week argued that the continued imports of petrol by the NNPC was at the detriment of Nigeria’s refineries.

They also insisted that the government should fix Nigeria’s refineries and stop importing petrol to help halt subsidy and save funds for the country, as they opposed subsidy removal now.

Commenting on the matter, the President, ACCI, Dr Al-Mujtaba Abubakar, said in an interview that it would be painful to raise petrol price to N408/litre this time and called for gradual increment.

He said, “The subsidy removal can be staggered. They (government) can stagger it by either removing about 25 per cent in the first three months, another 25 per cent next, and so on. They can stagger it.

“But as they remove the subsidy people will also want to see the benefits coming.”

Abubakar said the ACCI was in support of subsidy removal, but stressed that the amount saved must be properly channeled into infrastructure development.

On his part, the Director-General, LCCI, Dr. Muda Yusuf, explained that the inevitability of the deregulation of the petroleum downstream sector had not been in doubt.

He said given the huge financing gaps that existed at all levels of government, it was impossible to continue to sustain the subsidy regime, adding that the opportunity cost of petrol subsidy was huge.

Yusuf said, “But the transitioning process from a subsidy regime to a deregulated policy space calls for a strategy that is inclusive and socially sensitive.

“It is a tricky situation that demands tactful handling. It has profound social dimension. There is a strong economic argument, there is significant investment effect and there is a potential substantial political cost.”

The LCCI DG, however, noted that the bigger conversation should be around what should be done to mitigate the short term adverse social effect on the vulnerable segments of the society.

The Group General Manager, Group Public Affairs Division, NNPC, Kennie Obateru, told our correspondent that the oil firm would await the Federal Government’s position on the governors’ recommendation before changing petrol price.

He said, “We really cannot take a position on that now because we don’t want to pre-empt whatever government is going to decide and it is whatever the Federal Government decides that will come to play.

Obateru said the corporation was aware of the recommendation by the governors and admitted that petrol subsidy had truly been a burden on NNPC.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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