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Inflation Remains High at 18.12 Percent, Says Experts

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria’s inflation moderated slightly to 18.12 percent year-on-year in April from 18.17 percent posted in the month of March, according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Even though food inflation also slowed down to 22.72 percent in the month, compared to 22.95 percent filed in the previous month, experts have said the nation’s inflation rate remained high and above the 9 percent target of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Speaking on the inflation report, the Head of Research at Agusto Consulting, Mr. Jimi Ogbobine, said: “We can’t say we are winning the war against inflation because it is still above 18 per cent; especially because at 18 per cent, inflation is still at double-digit, whereas the limit of the CBN’s inflation target is nine per cent. And that means is that we can still be referred to as a high inflation environment.

I think we need to start looking at our current inflation as a security issue even beyond the basic of economics and beyond economic preview. It means it is affecting lots of families, it is increasing poverty levels and it means that the purchasing power of disposable income is weak and when you bring in high unemployment and an increase in working poor.”

Another expert, Mr. Ayodeki Ebo, the Head, Retail Investment, Chapel Hill Denham, said: “The inflation figures came as a surprise, but looking at it, it was majorly due to the high base effect of food inflation, which was a result of last year’s lockdown, which started in April and led to a sudden jump in prices.”

Commenting on what can be done to rein in Nigeria’s high inflation rate, Ebo said: “The issue of insecurity needs to be tackled and we need to also increase production so there is enough supply.

“We need to also intensify investments into agriculture so that yields can also increase. Other things are long term, which would help reduce distribution like having a functioning rail network would really impact on the cost of distribution.”

On his part, Prof. Uche Uwaleke, the Chairman, Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), Abuja Branch, said the risks to the inflation outlook were still present.

It is difficult to interpret this marginal drop in headline inflation to mean the beginning of a downward trend in the inflation rate.

“This is because the risks to the inflation outlook are still present. These include insecurity, which directly impacts food inflation, the recent devaluation of the naira, and the likely hike in the pump price of fuel and electricity tariffs,” he added.

Accordingly, Managing Director/Chief Executive, Dignity Finance and Investment Limited, Dr. Chijioke Ekechukwu, explained that the moderate decline was “not a turning point” in inflationary pressure.

He said: “It is only a marginal drop which may have arisen from one or a few reasons. The factors that have caused hyperinflation have not improved.

“We have not had an improvement in security, they have rather worsened. The prices of petroleum products are expected to align with global prices of crude oil, as the oil subsidy has technically been discontinued.

“We are therefore not expecting a further drop in inflation rate, if well measured, in the next month.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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