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Data Suggests Only Whales Moves Dogecoin

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It was Doge day afternoon all over again on Wednesday as Dogecoin (DOGE) continued its assault on the cryptocurrency market capitalization rankings. The meme coin overtook XRP to become the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by implied market capitalization after climbing to an All-Time High of $0.69 per-coin valuation  — a target that was specifically set by traders on social media.

But cryptocurrency’s latest media darling may not be as wholesome as it seems. For all the hype surrounding Dogecoin (and its de facto master, Elon Musk), publicly available data suggests relatively few people are actually using the blockchain and those who do use its account for an incredibly large portion of its overall activity.

Consider that the dollar value of coins sent across the Dogecoin blockchain on Tuesday exceeded $58 billion. That figure was 70 percent higher than the amount transferred on Bitcoin ($34 billion) and 260 percent higher than on Ethereum ($16 billion).

Digging into on-chain data further, we see that despite Dogecoin moving a higher value of coins than the two largest cryptocurrencies in the world, it achieved this with a mere fraction of their transactions.

Over 1.4 million transactions were counted on the Ethereum blockchain yesterday, according to data from Bitinfocharts, while close to 300,000 were counted on Bitcoin. Compare this to just 76,000 recorded on the Dogecoin blockchain, and an apparent wealth gap begins to emerge.

Indeed, when looking at Dogecoin’s average transaction value on the day in question, it stood at almost double that recorded on Bitcoin (BTC). The average DOGE transaction value stood at $800,000, compared to $420,000 on BTC. Its statistics relative to Ethereum paint an even more dire picture — Dogecoin’s average transaction value exceeded Ethereum’s by 8,000 percent, despite processing only 5 percent of the number of transactions.

Combined with the long-standing reality that one single address holds 28 percent of all coins in existence, while just 12 accounts for 67 percent, it becomes clear that Dogecoin isn’t exactly the people’s champion that interested parties would have the public believe.

A recently published report by Galaxy Digital piled on the misery regarding Dogecoin’s general lack of authenticity as a true cryptocurrency project. Titled “Dogecoin: The Most Honest Sh*tcoin,” the report highlighted the fact that Dogecoin’s GitHub repository (where updates to the blockchain’s code are logged by developers) hasn’t been touched since 2017. What’s more, the number of fully synced nodes (computers running copies of the Dogecoin blockchain) is just 26 percent of the overall node count, suggesting few people are willing to make the effort to maintain the blockchain’s network security.

But even if the Dogehouse seems like a ghost town, the glaring reality remains that Dogecoin is the best performing digital asset in the cryptocurrency space. The coin has recorded 14,000 percent growth since Jan. 1, when it was priced at a fraction of a cent.

Both credit and blame for Doge’s seemingly irrational ascent have been placed on the “Dogefather” himself, Elon Musk, who has taken great pleasure in posting Doge memes to his 52 million followers on Twitter throughout much of 2021.

However, it should also be noted that the coin’s recent peak of $0.69 is the same price target set by Reddit traders intent on artificially pumping DOGE’s valuation. The price point was originally intended to be reached on April 20 — a joke on top of a joke on 4/20 day. Dogecoin only reached a price of $0.420 at the time (boom), but now, a little over two weeks later, it has finally achieved its jocular goals. The ultimate price point being pursued by traders is $1.

If more evidence is needed that markets are not always rational, look no further than this year’s GameStop pump, where the share price of a near-dead brand increased by over 9,000 percent.

“Dogecoin has always been a joke, and the joke keeps getting funnier,” stated the Galaxy Digital report. Author of the report and head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital Alex Thorn did praise Dogecoin for its lack of pretense, noting that the coin’s fortunes weren’t tied to foundation announcements or developer promises and that its only goal was to elicit a reaction.

“Dogecoin’s longevity is ensured so long as one truism remains: people love a good joke,” Thorn ended.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Holds Above $67,000 Amid Trump Win Bets

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Bitcoin is holding above $67,000 after yesterday’s correction after breaching the $69,000 level and rising to its highest level since late July.

Yesterday’s correction comes after an upward trend that investors are pushing to continue in light of a set of supporting factors, whether from the massive inflows into cryptoinvestment products or from more bets on Donald Trump winning the White House again.

Cryptocurrency investment products recorded massive inflows last week, reaching $2.2 billion, which represents the highest level since last July, with Bitcoin accounting for most of these flows that went to US spot ETFs, according to CoinShares. Net flows to these funds amounted to more than $294 million yesterday alone, according to SoSo Value.

This comes with two weeks left until the US presidential election. While the Polymarket betting market indicates that Republican candidate Trump is likely to win with a 63% probability, the betting site has sparked controversy over who is behind the significant increase in Trump bets. In contrast to Polymarket’s results, the poll average indicates that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is ahead by 48.2% compared to 46.4% for Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight.

While this disparity and fluctuation in polls and predictions is likely to keep cryptocurrencies vulnerable to sharp volatility in the coming days, as the identity of the winner of the White House presidency might shape the future of the industry.

However, the futures market is presenting a mixed story and is questioning the sustainability of Bitcoin’s bullish trend. Bitcoin futures open interest regained its record level of more than $40 billion yesterday, according to CoinGlass, despite the price correction. This correction only resulted in a very small liquidation of the long positions of about $28 million yesterday.

Of that $40 billion, $12.5 billion was on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which also represents a new record high for Bitcoin futures on the US’s largest futures exchange. This reflects the increasing involvement of institutional investors in driving price action.

What is concerning is the decline in the long/short ratio from 1.04 on Sunday to 0.94 today, which may reflect increasing bearish bets in futures market, which in turn may indicate a possible reversal of the bullish trend and a renewal of yesterday’s losses soon.

Written by Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS

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Cryptocurrency

Binance Expands Crypto Access in West and Central Africa With Mobile Money Integration

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Binance, the world’s leading blockchain and cryptocurrency infrastructure provider continues to drive innovation and expand access to cryptocurrency in Africa, now allowing users in Benin, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Togo and Senegal to purchase crypto directly through mobile money payments enabled through local partnerships. 

This new functionality further strengthens Binance’s commitment to providing simple and secure access to cryptocurrency for users across the continent, reinforcing the platform’s vision of financial inclusion.

Samantha Fuller, Spokeswoman for Binance says “We remain focused on advancing financial inclusion and delivering user-friendly solutions for crypto adoption across Africa. This expansion into West and Central Africa is a significant step in our mission to increase crypto adoption, providing millions of people with more direct access to the global digital economy”.

This new service currently supports only BUY transactions, further simplifying the entry point for new crypto users in these regions, while providing them with a reliable and secure platform to acquire digital assets.

How to buy crypto:

  1. Log in to your Binance app and select [Add Funds] from the homepage.
  2. Choose your local fiat currency you wish to use by selecting the currency in the top-right column.
  3. Follow the instructions to complete your crypto purchase.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Fails to Hold $63,000 Amid Weak Risk Appetite, Growing Selling Pressure

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Bitcoin remains below $63,000 after failing to hold above it over the past two days while Ethereum is also struggling to reclaim $2,440.

The crypto market has been trading sideways since the beginning of this week.

The cautious moves in the crypto market come amid uncertainty over a range of economic and political factors in the US and geopolitics in the Middle East.

Add to that the potential selling pressure that the US government may exert with its permission to sell around 70,000 Bitcoin.

The Supreme Court has allowed the US Marshals Service to proceed with the sale of 69,370 Bitcoins seized from the Silk Road online store, which would be the largest sale of its kind in history. While the nature and pace of this selling is not yet known, it will not necessarily put downward pressure on prices if it is done in over-the-counter (OTC)
transactions, according to Beincrypto.

As for the economic side, in light of the surprise labor market numbers that were much better than expected and Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech, hopes for a rapid continuation of interest rate cuts this year have diminished. While the relatively high rates remain for a longer period and the continued rise in Treasury bond yields will weaken appetite for risky assets in general, including cryptocurrencies.

Whereas, after the hypothesis of a half-percentage point cut at the next November meeting was the most likely, it has now become excluded in the Fed Fund futures market, and the probability of a quarter-percentage point cut has become 87%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The remaining 13% is for the possibility of keeping current rates unchanged.

The state of caution may also prevail in the markets in the coming weeks, as we anticipate the presidential elections in the United States, which will begin next month. While the outcome of these elections could cause a structural shift in the crypto industry.

Far away, in the Middle East, markets are still anticipating the nature of the expected escalation in the region, especially regarding the nature of the Israeli response to the unprecedented attack from Iran and the nature of the counter-response. While one of the most prominent scenarios is targeting energy facilities, which would bring inflation back to the forefront, which in turn may require central banks to keep interest rates high.

 

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