The Federal Reserve’s critical policy verdict will prompt investors to top-up their portfolios, but they should avoid the ‘rotation trap’, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organizations.
The warning from Nigel Green, the chief executive and founder of deVere Group, comes as the U.S. central bank concluded its two-day meeting Wednesday announcing that it will maintain interest rates and bond purchases while upgrading its economic forecast.
Seven officials – up from five previously – see a rate rise in 2023 and economic growth is put at 6.5% – up from 4.2% – in 2021.
Mr Green says: “This was a tricky and critical meeting for the Fed as they had to communicate a balance between a Covid-scarred economy and a booming outlook.
“It was a fine line to walk and, clearly, they don’t want to hamper a recovery that’s just getting going.
“Their continuing support will put markets at ease, as will the optimistic growth forecasts for the world’s largest economy as it looks ahead to the post-pandemic era.
“Against this backdrop of ultra-low interest rates and potentially the fastest growth in decades, understandably investors will now be seeking to top-up their portfolios to grow their wealth.”
He continues: “However, those building up their portfolios should avoid being drawn into a rotation trap.
“The danger is the massive hype surrounding rotation from growth stocks – those expected to grow sales and earnings at a faster rate than the market average – into value stocks.”
“It should not be a case of either value or growth stocks. A properly diversified portfolio needs to have both.”
Last week, the deVere CEO noted: “It’s likely we’ll maintain some lockdown habits like working from home more often, but we’ll also be back in the gym; we’ll travel and go to public events again, but we’ll also be more conscious of the environment and hygiene procedures.
“In short, value stocks are in revival mode, but does anyone suddenly seriously think Amazon, Google and Tesla are not companies of the future also?”
As for concerns of longer-term inflation, Nigel Green thinks such fears are, for now at least, premature.
He notes: “We can expect some price growth as economies re-open, but this is likely to be short-term.
“I think, as it stands now, longer-term inflation fears, due to pent-up demand are being overplayed.
“For example, people might book one trip away, but they are unlikely to book five or six in one hit.”
Mr Green concludes: “There’s a wave of economic growth on its way and interest rates are set to remain low. Investors should use this time to build their wealth by topping up their portfolios – but they must do so judiciously.”
Unlocking Investments into Africa’s Renewable Energy Market
The African Energy Guarantee Facility (AEGF) is launching a virtual roadshow of free webinars allowing a deeper understanding of risk issues for renewable energy projects on the continent, and conversations around risk mitigation solutions. The first webinar will take place on Thursday, 23 September from 14:30-16:00 hrs. EAT.
The session will be oriented on how to get more energy projects from the drawing board to the grid. While the energy demand in African economies is expected to nearly double by 2040, and although the potential for renewable energy is 1,000 times larger than the demand, only 2GW out of almost 180GW of this new renewable power were added on the African continent.
Clearly not good enough! To improve the situation within the next two decades, new solutions need to be implemented urgently. De-risking and promoting private sector investments will play a crucial part of it.
In this 90-min interactive session, AEGF partners: the European Investment Bank (EIB), KfW Development Bank, Munich Re and the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATI) will share their experience and provide valuable insights on how they were able to come together and design practical solutions for investors and financiers of green energy projects in Africa aligned with SDG7 objectives.
Across Africa, the complexity of renewable energy projects and their long tenors hold back crucial energy investment. Tailored to the specific needs and risk profiles of sustainable energy projects, AEGF will tackle the investment challenge by providing underwriting expertise and capacity tailored to market needs.
The AEGF will significantly boost private investment in sustainable energy projects, both expanding access to clean energy and contribute to achieving UN Sustainable Development Goals. The scheme supports new private sector investment in eligible renewable energy, energy efficiency and energy access projects in sub-Saharan Africa.
Shell Signs Agreement To Sell Permian Interest For $9.5B to ConocoPhillips
Shell Enterprises LLC, a subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell plc, has reached an agreement for the sale of its Permian business to ConocoPhillips, a leading shales developer in the basin, for $9.5 billion in cash. The transaction will transfer all of Shell’s interest in the Permian to ConocoPhillips, subject to regulatory approvals.
“After reviewing multiple strategies and portfolio options for our Permian assets, this transaction with ConocoPhillips emerged as a very compelling value proposition,” said Wael Sawan, Upstream Director. “This decision once again reflects our focus on value over volumes as well as disciplined stewardship of capital. This transaction, made possible by the Permian team’s outstanding operational performance, provides excellent value to our shareholders through accelerating cash delivery and additional distributions.”
Shell’s Upstream business plays a critical role in the Powering Progress strategy through a more focused, competitive and resilient portfolio that provides the energy the world needs today whilst funding shareholder distributions as well as the energy transition.
The cash proceeds from this transaction will be used to fund $7 billion in additional shareholder distributions after closing, with the remainder used for further strengthening of the balance sheet. These distributions will be in addition to our shareholder distributions in the range of 20-30 percent of cash flow from operations. The effective date of the transaction is July 1, 2021 with closing expected in Q4 2021.
Shell has been providing energy to U.S. customers for more than 100 years and plans to remain an energy leader in the country for decades to come.
Oil Gains 1 Percent on Possible Tight Supply
Oil prices rose on Tuesday as analysts pointed to signs of U.S. supply tightness, ending days of losses as global markets remain haunted by the potential impact on China’s economy of a crisis at heavily indebted property group China Evergrande.
Brent crude gained 95 cents or 1.3% to $74.87 a barrel by 0645 GMT, having fallen by almost 2% on Monday. The contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) , which expires later on Tuesday, was up 91 cents or 1.3% at $71.20 after dropping 2.3% in the previous session.
Global utilities are switching to fuel oil due to rising gas and coal prices, and lingering outages from the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Ada that imply less supply is available, ANZ analysts said.
“While slowing Chinese economic growth and uncertainty around the (U.S.) Fed’s tapering timetable weighed on market sentiment, other developments still point to higher oil prices,” ANZ Research said in a note.
Still, investors across financial assets have been rocked by the fallout from heavily indebted Evergrande (3333.HK) and the threat of a wider market shakeout in the longer term.
“Evergrande’s woes are threatening the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy and making some investors question China’s growth outlook and whether it is safe to invest there,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
While that view of the state of China’s economy is weighing on markets, the U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected to start tightening monetary policy – likely to make investors warier of riskier assets such as oil.
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