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Bitcoin Drops 15% as Analysts Say Rally Overstretched

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Bitcoin Drops 15% as Analysts Say Rally Overstretched

Analysts are mixed on how low bitcoin might go if a bigger pullback is seen.

Bitcoin swiftly lost altitude early on Monday, dropping over 15% to below $50,000 before rebounding slightly. The downward price movement comes after bitcoin reached new record highs above $58,300 over the weekend.

The drop seemed to accelerate as U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described bitcoin as “highly speculative asset” that is extremely inefficient for transactions. Speaking at a New York Times event, Yellen called the amount of energy consumed in processing those transactions is “staggering.”

The top cryptocurrency by market value rebounded to above $51,000 as of 14:30 UTC, representing a roughly 11% drop over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk 20 data.

The pullback could be extended further, as the recent rally looked overstretched, according to David Lifchitz, CIO for Paris-based quantitative trading firm ExoAlpha.

“A 15% correction could happen, taking some steam out of the hot market, before reaching new highs,” Lifchitz told CoinDesk. “The more upward parabolic and fast a move, the more fragile it is, so a pullback would be more than welcome.”

Indeed, bitcoin has seen a staggering price rally over the past four months, rising from $10,000 to nearly $60,000, with just one bull market correction in the second half of January.

The recent rise from $30,000 to $58,000 was even steeper, so a healthy cooling off of the market looks overdue – more so, as several technical analysis tools, including the widely tracked relative strength index (RSI), are signaling overstretched conditions with an above-70 reading.

“Technical indicators such as the RSI and Stochastics across numerous chart timeframes are indicating that the crypto asset is overbought, implying that we could soon see a retracement,” Simon Peters, an analyst at eToro, said in an email.

Peters also pointed to a bearish divergence on the technical chart, while warning of weakening upward momentum and potential for trend reversal that could see prices fall.

The MACD histogram, an indicator used to gauge trend strength and trend changes, has produced lower highs, contradicting higher highs on the price chart, confirming the bearish divergence.

Macro factors

Supporting the case for a price pullback are rising U.S. inflation-adjusted bond yields, as discussed last week.

The 30-year inflation-adjusted yield, or real yield, has turned positive for the first time since June 2020, and the 10-year real yield has risen to -0.80% from lows near -1.05% observed last month, according to data provided by the U.S. Treasury.

A continued rise in yields could push the U.S. dollar higher, putting selling pressure on equities and bitcoin. Stock markets are trading down at press time, with the S&P 500 futures nursing a 0.6% drop on the day.

How low might bitcoin go?

“The pullback can easily extend to the former resistance-turned-support near $42,000,” Joel Kruger, currency strategist at LMAX Digital, told CoinDesk. Markets typically shake out weak bulls with a drop to former hurdle-turned-support levels before extending bull runs.

Bitcoin turned lower from its then-record high of $41,962 on Jan. 8, establishing that level as crucial resistance and slipped to $30,000 in the following days. The newfound resistance was a scaled on Feb. 8 after electric maker Tesla announced its $1.5 billion bitcoin purchase.

Crypto analysts expect other corporates to emulate Tesla’s decision to buy bitcoin. However, they may look to invest on price pullbacks, according to Lifchitz.

“$50,000 looks like the first stop for a mild pullback, but a second leg down could take it down to $40,000, while the $30,000 zone looks like the ultimate bottom should things turn ugly in the short term,” Lifchitz said.

However, Patrick Heusser, head of trading at Swiss-based Crypto Finance AG, said $52,000 is major support, adding that a significant correction may remain elusive, as the derivatives market is no longer exhibiting excess bullishness.

Bitcoin’s average funding rate, or the cost of holding long positions in the perpetual futures listed on major exchanges, declined (normalized) below 0.08% early today, having peaked at multi-month highs above 0.12% last week, according to Glassnode data.

While analysts stand divided on possible magnitude of an impending correction, they expect the cryptocurrency to eventually go on to achieve new record highs above $60,000.

“We believe markets are displaying a healthy correction,” Dibb said. “Both BTC and ETH are still trading within an upward channel, and momentum is still skewed towards the bids.”

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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MicroStrategy Acquires Additional 5,050 Bitcoins

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Business intelligence outfit and corporate Bitcoin (BTC) whale MicroStrategy has increased its BTC ownership with the additional purchase announced on Monday.

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor announced the purchase of 5,050 BTC for about $242.9 million at an average of $48,099 per coin.

In a Form 8-K filing with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission published on Monday, MicroStrategy stated that it had added 8,957 BTC to its corporate Bitcoin treasury in Q3 2021.

As previously reported, MicroStrategy recently bought 3,907 BTC at the cost of about $177 million between July 1 and Aug. 23.

Following the latest Bitcoin acquisition, the company now holds about 114,042 BTC acquired at an aggregate purchase cost of $3.16 billion. Given the current BTC spot price, the company’s Bitcoin holdings are valued at over $5 billion.

According to the Form 8-K document, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin cost comes down to about $27,713 per BTC, including fees and sundry expenses.

The additional 5,050 BTC purchase is yet another indication of its intention to expand its Bitcoin position. Despite paper losses on its Bitcoin investment in Q2, MicroStrategy has stated its Bitcoin appetite remained unaffected.

Since announcing its maiden BTC purchase back in August 2020, the business intelligence company has bought more Bitcoin becoming the largest corporate holder of the largest crypto by market capitalization among publicly traded firms in the United States.

Saylor has also become a prominent Bitcoin proponent, regularly encouraging other U.S. firms to add BTC to their balance sheets.

Monday’s purchase announcement comes amid a price decline for Bitcoin, with BTC down almost 3% in the last 24-hour trading period.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is down more than 4% as token prices slipped on Monday.

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El Salvador’s Bitcoin Rollout and Purchase is President’s Legacy and Start of ‘New World’?

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The CEO of a global, game-changing financial services group has said El Salvador becoming the world’s first sovereign nation to officially buy Bitcoin and to make the cryptocurrency legal tender ushers in the “start of a new world.”

The comments from Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s leading financial advisory asset management and fintech organizations, come as El Salvador’s president confirmed that his government has bought 400 Bitcoin – worth about $21 million – just before the Central American country formally adopts the world’s most popular cryptocurrency as legal tender.

President Nayib Bukele said the government plans to “buy a lot more” too.

The price of Bitcoin rose following the announcements on Twitter to trade at around $52,680.

Mr Green says: “It’s almost universally recognized that the future of money is inevitably digital, in some form or another.

“El Salvador has today made history by not only becoming the first country in the world to declare Bitcoin as legal tender, but by also becoming the first sovereign nation to officially buy it.

“I believe this is a threshold moment in the evolution of digital currency and that it ushers in the start of a new world as we can expect more nations, especially those with developing economies, to follow El Salvador’s historic lead.”

On Monday, the deVere CEO conceded that there are major risks attached to the move, including that there is a possibility that El Salvador could run out of dollars and that institutions, such as the IMF, might not look favorably on a nation that has adopted Bitcoin.

These risks prompted some El Salvadorans last week to take to the streets to protest against the adoption of Bitcoin as an official currency.

However, he set out five reasons why he “cautiously welcomed” the Bitcoin decision.

“First, El Salvador chose to be reliant upon a major ‘first-world’ currency, the U.S. dollar, to complete transactions. But this reliance on another country’s currency also comes with its own set of, often very costly, problems.

“The El Salvadoran government cannot print its own money and the economy cannot benefit from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s money-printing agenda. Therefore, El Salvador must either borrow or earn the dollars it needs.

“A stronger U.S. dollar can have a crippling impact on emerging-market economies, such as that of El Salvador.

“By adopting a cryptocurrency as legal tender these countries then immediately have a currency that isn’t influenced by market conditions within their own economy, nor directly from just one other country’s economy.

“Bitcoin operates on a global scale and is, as such, largely impacted by wider, global economic changes.

“Second, central banks around the world have been devaluing their currencies, while Bitcoin’s supply is not only limited, but also new coins are mined at a decreasing rate too. El Salvadorans could, therefore, find their new adopted currency gives them more purchasing power when they buy from overseas.”

He went on to say: “Third, El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin could cut the cost of remittances, a major source of income for millions of people. The remittances would be made faster and easier too, compared to money transfer services or bank wires, so remittances are likely to further increase.

“Fourth, by diversifying the nation’s dollar reserves into the cryptocurrency, there could be additional opportunities to earn yield, meaning the size of the reserves would grow.

“And fifth, El Salvador could benefit from significant foreign investment and capital inflows as digital asset organizations are likely to relocate to the Bitcoin-friendly nation.”

Of El Salvador’s Bitcoin legal tender rollout and massive purchase, Mr Green concludes: “The world is watching. This is likely to be President Bukele’s legacy in the making.”

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Fintech CEO: Instability in Afghanistan Offers Real-World Test for Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies

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 As the Taliban seized control of the structures of power throughout Afghanistan, inflation has begun to skyrocket, and there has been a run on the banks, many of which were forced to close when they ran out of cash. The country is without payment processors like Paypal, and Western Union has stopped operating in the country.

“The Afghan economy is still largely a cash economy, and, while its unlikely that many will be able to immediately exchange their cash into cryptocurrency, there are signs that some in the country began to use digital assets before the government fell. Seeing the conditions on the ground, it was easy to see the allure of a decentralized digital currency as a way to protect the value of assets,” said Richard Gardner, CEO of Modulus, a US-based developer of ultra-high-performance trading and surveillance technology that powers global equities, derivatives, and digital asset exchanges.

“Obviously the current geopolitical situation is a mess, but, economically, Afghanistan is an extreme case of inflation and instability. In principle, the same theory of storing value, which applies in places like Nigeria, would apply to Afghanistan. The difference is in the technological infrastructure, which, of course, is more abundant in Nigeria,” said Gardner. “Even still, there are reasons to believe that, for some, it could provide a safe haven.”

Earlier this year, the Fantom Foundation, in conjunction with the Afghanistan Ministry of Health, announced that a trial run of the National Medical Importation Security Initiative was successful. The initiative used blockchain-based technologies to stop the counterfeiting of pharmaceuticals sold throughout the country.

“Not unlike other developing countries, education is the best way to expand access to technology. Of course, those with access to technology are going to be more interested in digital assets. There have been reports of students in universities in Afghanistan who learned about such things as opening a digital wallet,” Gardner explained. Anecdotal surveys also show that interest in Afghanistan has increased significantly over the past year, and, according to CNBC, Google Trends data shows that searches for cryptocurrency-related terms rose significantly in July.

Modulus is known throughout the financial technology segment as a leader in the development of ultra-high frequency trading systems and blockchain technologies. Over the past twenty years, the company has built technology for the world’s most notable exchanges, with a client list which includes NASA, NASDAQ, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Barclays, Siemens, Shell, Yahoo!, Microsoft, Cornell University, and the University of Chicago.

“When you look at what’s happened in Afghanistan, and when you realize that the citizenry of the country is likely to see significantly more financial hardships before the situation normalizes, it is easy to see the allure of cryptocurrencies. It will be interesting to see how the CBDC race bears out. In the future, will citizens of countries like Afghanistan look around to neighboring countries, identify a CBDC which they believe to be stable, and invest their savings there to prevent against inflation? If there aren’t regulations against it, that’s a significant possibility — and another reason why all central banks should want to move to develop their own CBDC with vigor,” said Gardner.

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