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WEST AFRICAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRESENTS MORE POSITIVE PICTURE

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WEST AFRICAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRESENTS MORE POSITIVE PICTURE

Lagos, 3 February 2021 – Against the backdrop of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the NielsenIQ Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for West Africa has presented a more positive picture in Quarter 4, 2021 with Nigeria CCI at 114, reflecting a slow but steady return to levels above 120 seen during 2019, while Ghana continues to show an improvement to its current CCI of 123.

NielsenIQ West Africa MD Ged Nooy comments; “As the largest economy on the continent, Nigeria has managed to keep its COVID-19 infection rate relatively low in proportion to its 206-million population, however, its macro-economic prospects have been dampened by lower oil prices, increased food prices and rising inflation, together with a 50% VAT increase in 2020. Despite these challenges, Nigerian consumers remain upbeat about their prospects.”

This has seen improved confidence around job prospects, with 58% of consumers saying they will be good or excellent in the next 12 months – a 3-point increase from the previous quarter. In terms of the state of their finances over the next 12 months, 78% say they will be excellent or good, showing a substantial 11 point increase from the previous quarter. Nigerians’ propensity to purchase has unfortunately seen a 13 point decrease to just 27% of Nigerians who think now is a good or excellent time to purchase what they want or need.

In terms of whether they have spare cash left after paying for essentials, 26% of Nigerians say yes, down seven  points from the previous quarter. Once they meet their essential living expenses, however, the highest number of consumers (78%) put their spare cash into savings, followed by 73% who spend it on home improvements and 61% who invest in stocks and mutual funds.

Squeezed wallets

Despite their more positive medium to long term outlook, their wallets remain tight with 80% of Nigerians saying they have changed their spending to save on household expenses compared to this time last year. To reduce expenses, the highest number of consumers (73%) said they have deferred the replacement of major household items, 63% are spending less on out of home entertainment and 56% less on at home entertainment .

Looking ahead, the top Nigerian consumer concern over the next twelve months is their children’s education and welfare at 22%, increasing food prices (16%) and the economy at 11%. Within this context, these drops reflect consumers’ confidence in the macro picture in terms of food inflation and overall economic performance.

A subdued outlook

Looking at Ghana’s performance, increased consumer confidence during the last two quarters has seen its overall index rise to 123. Fortunately, Ghanaians are still fairly optimistic in terms of their job prospects with 67% saying they will be good or excellent in the next year. In terms of the state of their finances over the next 12 months, 74% say they will be excellent or good –

Ghanaians propensity to purchase has also seen a considerable decrease half think now is a good or excellent time to purchase what they want or need.

Only 46% of Ghanaians say they have spare cash and once they meet their essential living expenses, the highest number of consumers (68%) put their spare cash into savings. This is followed by 57%who say they invest in shares and mutual funds and 56% on home improvements

Curtailed spending

When asked whether they had changed their spending to save on household expenses compared to this time last year, 73% of Ghanaians said yes. To reduce expenses, the highest number (49%) said delaying the replacement of major household items followed by 48% spending less on new clothes and 47% less on out of home entertainment.

When looking at the real-life factors that are affecting their outlook, the top consumer concern over the next twelve months is work/life balance (12%), followed by increasing food prices, job security and tolerance towards other religions – all at 11%.

Looking at the future outlook for Ghana, Nooy comments; “Ghana is likely to outperform the regional economic growth average in 2021 which bodes well for increased domestic demand and consumption levels. To benefit from these improved circumstances retailers will need to meet radically altered consumer, demands, needs and behaviours that will impact where they shop, what they buy, why they buy and how much they are willing to spend.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigeria Advances Plans for Regional Maritime Development Bank

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Nigeria is making significant strides in bolstering its maritime sector with the advancement of plans for the establishment of a Regional Maritime Development Bank (RMDB).

This initiative, spearheaded by the Federal Government, is poised to inject vitality into the region’s maritime industry and stimulate economic growth across West and Central Africa.

The Director of the Maritime Safety and Security Department in the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy, Babatunde Bombata, revealed the latest developments during a stakeholders meeting in Lagos organized by the ministry.

He said the RMDB would play a pivotal role in fostering robust maritime infrastructure, facilitating vessel acquisition, and promoting human capacity development, among other strategic objectives.

With an envisaged capital base of $1 billion, RMDB is set to become a pivotal financial institution in the region.

Nigeria, which will host the bank’s headquarters, is slated to have the highest share of 12 percent among the member states of the Maritime Organization of West and Central Africa (MOWCA).

This underscores Nigeria’s commitment to driving maritime excellence and fostering regional cooperation.

The bank’s establishment reflects a collaborative effort between the public and private sectors, with MOWCA states holding a 51 percent shareholding and institutional investors owning the remaining 49 percent.

This hybrid model ensures a balanced governance structure that prioritizes the interests of all stakeholders while fostering transparency and accountability.

In addition to providing vital funding for port infrastructure, vessel acquisition, and human capacity development, the RMDB will serve as a catalyst for indigenous shipowners, enabling them to access financing at favorable terms.

By empowering local stakeholders, the bank aims to stimulate economic activity, create employment opportunities, and enhance the competitiveness of the region’s maritime sector on the global stage.

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Economic Downturn Triggers Drop in Nigerian Air Cargo Activities

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Activity in Nigeria’s air cargo sector declined with cargo volumes dwindling across airports in the country.

The decline fueled by a myriad of factors including rising production costs, diminished purchasing power, and elevated exchange rates, has underscored the broader economic strain facing the nation.

Throughout 2023, key players in the sector, such as the Nigerian Aviation Handling Company (NAHCO) and the Skyway Aviation Handling Company (SAHCO), reported notable decreases in their total tonnage figures compared to the previous year.

NAHCO recorded a six percent decline in total tonnage to 61.09 million kg, while SAHCO’s total tonnage decreased to 63.56 million kg. These declines were observed across various services, including import, export, and courier.

According to industry experts, the downturn in cargo volumes can be attributed to the escalating costs of production, which have soared due to various factors such as higher diesel prices, increased supply chain costs, and fuel surcharges.

Also, the adverse impact of elevated exchange rates, influenced by Central Bank of Nigeria’s policies on Customs Currency Exchange Platform, has further exacerbated the situation.

Seyi Adewale, CEO of Mainstream Cargo Limited, highlighted the challenges facing the industry, pointing to higher local transport and distribution costs, as well as the closure of production/manufacturing companies.

Adewale also noted government policies aimed at promoting local sourcing of raw materials, which have added to the complexities faced by cargo operators.

The broader economic downturn has led to a contraction in Nigeria’s economy, with imports declining as a response to the prevailing economic conditions.

Ikechi Uko, organizer of the Aviation and Cargo Conference (CHINET), emphasized the shrinking economy and reduced import activities, which have had a ripple effect on air cargo volumes.

Furthermore, the scarcity of foreign exchange and trapped funds experienced by carriers have contributed to the decline in cargo operations.

Major cargo airlines, including Cargolux, Saudi Cargo, and Emirates Cargo, have ceased operations in Nigeria, leaving Turkish Airlines as one of the few carriers still operating, albeit on a limited scale.

The absence of freighter cargo airlines has forced importers and exporters to resort to chartering cargo planes at exorbitant rates, further straining the air cargo sector.

 

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Point of Sale Operators to Challenge CAC Directive in Court

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Point of Sale (PoS) operators in Nigeria are gearing up for a legal battle against the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) as they contest the legality of a directive mandating registration with the commission.

The move comes amidst a growing dispute over regulatory oversight and the interpretation of existing laws governing business operations in the country.

Led by the National President of the Association of Mobile Money and Bank Agents in Nigeria, Fasasi Sarafadeen, PoS operators have expressed staunch opposition to the CAC directive, arguing that it oversteps its jurisdiction and violates established legal provisions.

Sarafadeen, in a statement addressing the matter, emphasized that the directive from the CAC contradicts the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) of 2004, which explicitly states that the commission does not have jurisdiction over individuals operating as sole proprietors.

“The order to enforce CAC directive on individual PoS agents operating under their name is wrong and will be challenged,” Sarafadeen asserted, citing section 863(1) of CAMA, which delineates the commission’s scope of authority.

According to Sarafadeen, the PoS operators are prepared to take their case to court to seek legal redress, highlighting their commitment to upholding their rights and challenging what they perceive as regulatory overreach.

“We shall challenge it legally. The court will have to intervene in the interpretation of the quoted section of the CAMA if individuals operating as a sub-agent must register with CAC,” Sarafadeen stated, emphasizing the association’s determination to pursue a legal resolution.

The crux of the dispute lies in the distinction between individual and non-individual PoS agents. Sarafadeen clarified that while non-individual agents, operating under registered or unregistered business names, are subject to CAC registration requirements, individual agents conducting business under their names fall outside the commission’s purview.

“Individual agents operate under their names and are typically profiled with financial institutions under their names,” Sarafadeen explained.

“It is this second category of agents that the Corporate Affairs Commission can enforce the law on.”

Moreover, Sarafadeen highlighted the integral role of sub-agents within the PoS ecosystem, noting that they function as independent branches of registered companies and should not be subjected to the same regulatory scrutiny as non-individual agents.

“Sub-agents are not carrying out as an independent company but branches of a company,” Sarafadeen clarified, urging for a nuanced understanding of the operational dynamics within the fintech and agent banking industry.

In addition to challenging the CAC directive, Sarafadeen emphasized the need for regulatory bodies to prioritize addressing broader issues affecting businesses in Nigeria, such as the high failure rate of registered enterprises.

“The Corporate Affairs Commission should prioritize addressing the alarming failure rate of registered businesses in Nigeria, rather than targeting sub-agents,” Sarafadeen asserted, calling for a shift in regulatory focus towards fostering a conducive business environment.

As PoS operators prepare to navigate the complex legal terrain ahead, their decision to challenge the CAC directive underscores a broader struggle for regulatory clarity and accountability within Nigeria’s burgeoning fintech sector.

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