Finance

Banks to Experience Severe Credit Losses in Late 2021 – Mckinsey & Company

Published

4 years ago

December 29, 2020

The crisis of 2008 came from within the financial services industry. Today, in this crisis of the real economy, banks are economically afflicted alongside other sectors in society. But banks are also playing an important role in helping society through the crisis: as the conduit for state support, supporting small businesses, companies and individual citizens.

The crisis is delivering, in effect, the biggest stress test to banks, a test which the industry is withstanding to-date, whilst demonstrating resilience and purpose. The impact of the last year without the role the industry has played is likely much deeper.

Going forward, McKinsey anticipates the test presented for banks by the pandemic will evolve in two stages in the months and years ahead. First will come severe credit losses, likely through late 2021; almost all banks and banking systems are expected to survive. Then, amid a muted global recovery, banks will face a profound challenge to ongoing operations that may persist beyond 2024.

Depending on scenario, average return on equity globally would continue its decline, from 8.9 percent in 2019 to 4.9 percent in 2020 to 1.5 percent in 2021. At the trough in 2021, ROE would fall to −1.1 percent in North America, −1.8 percent in Europe, and −0.2 percent in developed Asia. ROE would fall from higher starting levels and bottom out higher in emerging Asia (2.6 percent), the Middle East and Africa (MEA; 3.7 percent), and Latin America (5.2 percent); and it would take a smaller dip to 8.6 percent in China.
African banks enjoyed one of the highest ROEs in the world, however the overall ROE is expected to half at 7.6 percent in next 2 years, while revenues after risk may decline by 15 percent in a muted recovery scenario. In the short term, banks will be affected by cascading credit losses resulting in 50 percent impact on revenues while in the long term, continued pressure on margins and moderate volume growth might dwarf the revenue growth to half of pre-COVID-19 levels.
The onset of recovery is likely to vary by country as level of provisioning done by banks in 2020 will be a deciding factor if they will see V- or U-shaped recovery. In SA and Kenya, banks have already provisioned highly for potential bad debts while Morocco and Nigeria may continue to increase provisions in 2021 as well.

Francois Jurd de Girancourt, Head of the Banking Practice in Africa said: “The ROE recovery post COVID-19 is projected to be lower compared to pre-crisis levels, unless banks further improve their cost efficiency. African banks cost to asset ratio is 2.3 times higher than the global average and based on our estimates, banks would need to increase their operating efficiency by at least 25-30 percent to converge back to 2019 ROEs.”

Marie-Claude Nadeau, San Francisco-based McKinsey partner and report author said: “Banks will need to act quickly to return to precrisis ROE levels, in a far more challenging environment than the decade just past. The period of zero percent interest rates is being prolonged by the economic crisis and will reduce net interest margins, pushing incumbents to rethink their risk-intermediation-based business models. The trade-off between rebuilding capital and paying dividends will be stark, and deteriorating ratings of borrowers will lead to inflation of risk-weighted assets, which will tighten the squeeze.”

Mayowa Kuyoro, a partner at McKinsey & Company in Lagos, Nigeria said: “In Nigeria, our analysis is that ROE levels are likely to recover by 2024, although they will remain low compared to pre-crisis levels. To proactively manage this, Nigerian banks will need to revisit and interrogate matters of efficiency and productivity to deliver services to more people at lower cost. The rapid shift to digital is clearing the way for banks to ramp up their use of data and analytics to enhance services and reduce costs. For banks that are existing market leaders, now is the time to consider investing in technology infrastructure and talent to expand beyond current customers and products. Equipping employees with the right skills and digital tools, doubling down on digital marketing, and establishing robust digital infrastructure are likely to be key enablers for success in the next normal.”

For the long term, banks need to reset their agenda in ways that few expected nine months ago. McKinsey sets out three imperatives that will position banks well against the trends now taking shape.

They must embed newfound speed and agility, identifying what worked well in their response to the crisis and finding ways to preserve those practices.
They must fundamentally reinvent their business model to sustain a long winter of zero percent interest rates and economic challenges, while also adopting the best new ideas from digital challengers.
And they must bring their broader purpose to the fore, especially environmental, social, and governance issues, and collaborate with the communities they serve to recast their contract with society.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Finance

Did President Tinubu Ask CBN Gov Cardoso To Resign?

Published

15 hours ago

September 19, 2024

Bassey Marshall

The presidency has refuted reports alleging that President Bola Tinubu had asked Yemi Cardoso to resign from his position as the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The report claimed that the president ordered Cardoso to resign following his inability to stop the poor performance of the economy, most especially, the free fall of the Naira.

Also, the report alleged that Tinubu gave the order to Cardoso before departing Nigeria for China.

However, the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, has countered the report suggesting that Tinubu ordered Cardoso’s resignation.

The presidential spokesman spoke via his X handle, describing the report as a “bundle of lies.”

“It’s all lies. President Tinubu has not asked Yemi Cardoso to resign,” Onanuga said while dismissing the report.

Cardoso was nominated as CBN Governor by President Tinubu on September 15, 2023, and assumed office as CBN Governor on September 22, 2023.

He and his deputies were cleared by the National Assembly days before he took over from acting CBN Governor, Folashodun Shonubi.

Cardoso has been under heavy pressure to address the ongoing economic challenges and stabilise the Naira.

Appointments

Keystone Bank Receives New Board Chairman, Directors From CBN

Published

1 day ago

September 18, 2024

Bassey Marshall

It is the dawn of a new era for Keystone Bank, a top player in the Nigerian banking sector.

As part of a broader strategy to ensure sustained growth for Keystone Bank, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has approved a new chairman and board of directors for the financial institution.

The new board consists of a new board chairman, five non-executive directors, and two new directors, all carefully selected to take the bank to new heights.

The apex bank confirmed the latest development via a statement on Wednesday.

Steering the ship of leadership is Lady Ada Chukwudozie, as the new board chairman.

Lady Ada Chukwudozie, brings with her a truckload of experience.

A prominent figure in Nigeria’s corporate sector, Ada has nearly three decades of experience in business strategy, management, and administration.

Her expertise cuts across multiple industries, including De-Endy Industrial Company Limited, Dozzy Group, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, and Vogue Afrique Magazine.

Indeed, to whom much is given, much is expected.

With her extensive background and experience, Ada will now shoulder the responsibility of guiding the bank toward achieving its long-term goals.

The good news is that she is not alone. Joining her on the board are five non-executive directors, each bringing their unique skills to the table.

The five non-executive directors are Abdul-Rahman Esene, Mrs. Fola Akande, Akintola Ayodeji Olusoji, Obijiaku Samuel, and Senator Farouk Bello.

Together, they will play a critical role in shaping the future of the bank.

Furthermore, two new executive directors, Ladi Oluwole and Abubakar Usman Bello were also confirmed by the CBN.

Meanwhile, Keystone Bank’s Managing Director and CEO, Hassan Imam, bragged about his confidence in the new team.

To him, he was certain they would drive the bank’s growth and ensure reliable service for customers.

Imam noted that their wealth of experience would play a crucial role in the bank’s continued repositioning and growth.

His words: “We are pleased to welcome the new chairman, non-executive directors, and executive directors to the board of Keystone Bank.

We are confident that their extensive experience will be invaluable as we continue to reposition the bank to seize emerging economic opportunities while maintaining strong corporate governance and providing our customers with a secure and reliable banking experience,” Imam concluded.

Recall that in January, the CBN dissolved the board and management of Union Bank, Keystone Bank, and Polaris Bank.

Finance

African Development Bank Extends $400,000 in Technical Assistance to Support Pension Sector

Published

1 week ago

September 12, 2024

Samed Olukoya

African Development Bank - Investors King

The African Development Bank Group has approved $400,000 in grant funding for the Liberia Pension Sector Intervention Project, to support the expansion of pension coverage in Liberia.

The grant is being sourced from the Capital Markets Development Trust Fund (CMDTF), a multi-donor trust fund, managed by the African Development Bank that supports development of efficient and diversified capital markets in African countries. The CMDTF is funded by donors including the Ministry for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation of the Netherlands and the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg.

Liberia`s National Social Security and Welfare Corporation (NASSCORP), the only existing pension service provider in country, currently provides coverage to mainly formal sector public service employees. There is thus a gap in coverage for the private sector, and particularly informal businesses.

Under the Liberia Pension Sector Intervention Project, the funding will support targeted reforms of Liberia’s pension sector including an assessment of the current pension system towards development of a national strategy, and capacity building for the pension sector ecosystem, including public and potential private pension sector operators.

The project is expected to enhance the enabling enviroment and support the emergence of domestic institutional investor base, thereby broadening the pension coverage and enabling the pension system to mobilise additional savings for investment, including through domestic financial markets. It will be implemented by the Central Bank of Liberia, which oversees the country’s financial sector.

Hon. Henry F. Saamoi, Acting Executive Governor of the Central Bank of Liberia said, “The CBL appreciates the continued support of the African Development Bank toward the development of Liberia’s pension sector and looks forward to working with the Bank to implement this important reform. The Liberia Pension Sector Intervention Project should enhance Liberia’s readiness for the development of its capital market by institutionalising the investor base, and improving the pension sector’s legal and regulatory environment,” Mr. Saamoi added.

Ahmed Attout, African Development Bank Director for Financial Sector Development said, “We are excited to partner with the Central Bank of Liberia on this operation that is expected to facilitate a reformed pension system capable of mobilising domestic savings, that can be chanelled through financial markets, thereby contributing to deepen the domestic capital markets in Liberia. This aligns with the Bank’s goal of facilitating the emergence of well-functioning capital markets that can efficiently mobilise and allocate savings to fund the credit needs of economic agents and the continent’s development while reducing intermediation costs.”