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Ghana/Kenya: Eurobonds to Decouple as Fiscal Challenges Come to Fore

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Ghana and Kenya, two of the sub-Saharan African sovereigns with the highest amount of outstanding Eurobonds, could see a widening of their risk premiums over 2021, according to a Senior Credit Analyst at Redd Intelligence, Mark Bohlund.

Faced with fiscal challenges, the two African nations are expected to return to the Eurobond market in the first quarter of 2021, but this time with bigger risk premiums as investors are expected to incorporate a higher likelihood of frontier-market issuers being pushed into debt restructuring.

Mark Bohlund said, “Ghana and Kenya are likely to return to the Eurobond market in 1Q21 but see a widening of their risk premiums over 2021 as investors incorporate a higher likelihood of frontier-market issuers being pushed into debt restructuring.”

With Ghana’s outstanding Eurobonds presently estimated at US$10.3 billion and Kenya’s outstanding Eurobonds put at US$6.1 billion, spreads on Ghana’s Eurobonds will increase over those of Kenya in 2021.

It is likely that spreads on Ghana’s eurobonds over those of Kenya will increase over 2021 as concerns rise over its weak fiscal position and high reliance on commercial overseas financing,” Bohlund stated.

Commenting on the countries’ fiscal positions, Bohlund said both countries are likely to post double-digit fiscal deficits this year, as contracting economies add to already faltering government revenue.

“With interest costs absorbing close to 50% of government revenue, Ghana will struggle to find sufficient cost- savings in other areas to reduce the fiscal deficit substantially in 2021.”

“In contrast to Kenya, Ghana has already cut back its capital expenditure to a bare minimum. The Bank of Ghana stepped up its purchases of government bonds sharply in September and we expect this to continue during 2021.

“In Kenya, part of the solution should be to encourage county governments to raise more revenue, but this will be challenging to implement before the August 2022 elections.

“Having shied away from bi- and multilateral creditors in favor of commercial borrowing, Ghana is likely to struggle to secure sufficient external financing in 2021. This makes increased central bank financing likely and poses downside risks to the cedi.

“Neither Ghana nor Kenya is likely to seek DSSI participation in 1H21 even if they deem that international bond issuance will not be possible.

“We have changed our view and now expect both Ghana and Kenya to issue Eurobonds in 1H21.

“Kenya is likely to continue to draw on funding from the IMF, the World Bank and other multilateral creditors, as well as bilateral financial support from China as the Standard Gauge Railway, continues to bleed funds.”

Bohlund added that the spreads between Ghana and Kenya Eurobonds are likely to widen further as a higher risk of a debt restructuring is priced into Ghanaian assets.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Bonds

Investor Appetite Wanes as FG Bond Auction Sees Lowest Participation of the Year

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Subscription for the Federal Government bond auction on May 13, 2024 was the lowest so far in 2024.

Despite the subdued interest, the government successfully raised N380.76 billion, albeit experiencing a 39 per cent reduction compared to the proceeds from the previous month’s auction.

The aggregate subscription across all tenors amounted to N551.316 billion, representing a decrease from the N920.08 billion recorded in the preceding month.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) reported a non-competitive allotment of N301.30 billion.

The auction featured various bond tenors with the new 9-year bond taking center stage. This bond attracted substantial interest, garnering N373.875 billion in subscriptions.

Of this amount, N285.124 billion was allotted, inclusive of N179.00 billion under non-competitive bids.

The bids ranged from 16.95 per cent to 22.00 per cent, eventually settling at a marginal rate of 19.89 per cent.

Meanwhile, the 7-year bond received bids totaling N76.875 billion, with N62.975 billion allotted. Non-competitive allotments accounted for N85.80 billion.

The bids ranged from 17.20 per cent to 20.80 per cent, resulting in a final marginal rate of 19.74 per cent.

In addition, the 5-year bond attracted bids amounting to N100.56 billion, with an allotment of N32.67 billion.

An additional N36.500 billion was allocated through non-competitive bids. Bids spanned from 17.50 per cent to 21.00 per cent, and the marginal rate was set at 19.29 per cent.

The subdued subscription level in May 2024 indicates a lack of robust investor participation in government bonds compared to previous auctions.

This decline in investor interest could be attributed to various factors, including prevailing market conditions, economic uncertainties, and evolving investment preferences.

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African ESG Bond Issuance Surges to $4.4bn in 2024

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The landscape of sustainable investment in Africa is experiencing a significant upswing as the issuance of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) bonds by African entities hit $4.4 billion in 2024.

This substantial increase highlights a growing commitment among African institutions to raise funds for investments aligned with ESG principles.

The surge in ESG bond issuance underscores a broader trend towards responsible and sustainable investing on the continent.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) emerges as a key player in this segment, having successfully issued social bonds worth $2 billion in January 2024, in addition to hybrid sustainable bonds amounting to $750 million.

Joining the AfDB in this endeavor is the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), which, with the support of the African Export-Import Bank, has issued bonds totaling €500 million.

This momentum in the ESG bond market has propelled financial institutions like BNP Paribas, JPMorgan, and Bank of America Securities into leading positions as arrangers for such bonds on the continent.

The surge in ESG bond issuance reflects a broader global trend towards sustainable finance, with the total value of emissions of this kind expected to reach $950 billion in 2024, according to Moody’s.

It is evident that ESG bonds are gaining traction in Africa, supported by development finance institutions and initiatives aimed at fostering sustainable economic growth and development across the continent.

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Coinbase Unveils $1 Billion Convertible Bond Plan to Fuel Growth

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Coinbase Global, Inc., the renowned cryptocurrency exchange platform, has announced its strategic move to bolster its financial position by initiating a private sale of $1 billion in convertible senior notes.

The bonds, set to mature in 2030, come with an additional provision allowing initial buyers to acquire an extra $150 million to address potential over-allotments.

This ambitious plan, aimed at fortifying Coinbase’s financial foundation, underscores the company’s commitment to fostering growth and expansion in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

The proceeds from the convertible bond issuance are earmarked for “working capital and capital expenditures,” reflecting Coinbase’s strategic vision to drive innovation and enhance its market presence.

Convertible bonds offer a unique avenue for Coinbase to raise capital, providing investors with the flexibility to convert their holdings into company stock.

This approach not only diversifies Coinbase’s funding sources but also potentially reduces interest costs compared to traditional debt financing methods.

The decision to opt for convertible bonds aligns with Coinbase’s strategy to navigate market dynamics effectively while maximizing shareholder value.

Amidst recent operational challenges, including glitches during bitcoin’s price surges, Coinbase remains steadfast in its pursuit of growth opportunities.

Coinbase’s move to secure $1 billion through convertible bonds underscores its confidence in the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency industry.

As the company continues to innovate and adapt to market trends, investors are poised to witness Coinbase’s strategic vision translate into sustained growth and value creation in the dynamic world of digital assets.

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