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Stock Market’s ‘Great Rotation’ to Catch Out investors, Warns DeVere Boss

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The growing noise about the rotation from growth to value stocks as a result of the optimistic vaccine news is “misguided” and could “catch-out investors,” warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations.

The stark warning from Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, which has $12bn under advisement, comes following several key breakthroughs in the fight against Covid-19 causing an ‘unprecedented’ rotation in stocks.

Market rotation is the counter movement by traders from one equity class or sector into another.

Mr Green warns: “Optimism driven by progress towards a Covid-19 vaccine has prompted many investors around the world to ditch several of 2020’s high-flying stocks – the ones that benefitted from the impact of the pandemic – and buy ones that were beaten down by coronavirus.

“In the last few days, there’s been a historical, violent rotation from growth and momentum stocks, like stay-at-home tech, to value funds, including financials and industrials, as a result of the positive vaccine news.

He continues: “Hopes for a potential vaccine are legitimate and the developments are, without question, positive news for humanity.

“However, The Great Rotation could be misguided and could catch-out investors.

“They might be looking ahead to the post-pandemic era with a virus-free economy, but the world, the global economy, how we live, do business and interact remains fundamentally changed.

“It is doubtful the world will go back exactly to how it was pre-Covid – there are many aspects of the ‘new normal’ which people like and support. As such, some of the major shifts are unlikely to be reversed.

“The remote working phenomenon is one example. Even if 20% of office workers return to the office full time, the change in working patterns is monumental.

“Other examples include business travel being replaced with videoconferencing, and online retail – people have fallen in love with it. Will they all suddenly go back to the stores? Then there’s the use of apps for everyday tasks such as banking, also for healthcare and medical analysis, amongst many other things.

“In many ways, Covid-19 simply accelerated the growing trend that existed before towards consumer convenience, for 24/7 access and on-demand.

“Therefore, dumping stocks that support these major societal and economic seismic shifts in favour of so-called recovery stocks might catch investors off guard.”

The deVere CEO also highlights that the roll-out of a mass global vaccination agenda will be a lengthy process and will face an uphill logistical struggle, plus there are the “vaccine sceptic concerns to address.”

He concludes: “The best way for investors to position themselves for the opportunities and to mitigate risks is to have a broad spread of investments, and not to try to second guess the market.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Nigerian Stock Market Sinks as Benchmark Index Hits January Levels

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The Nigerian equity market closed in the red on Tuesday as the benchmark index plummeted to levels last seen in January.

The All-Share Index (ASI) dropped to 97,473.98 points, mirroring the bearish sentiment that prevailed earlier in the year.

Similarly, the market capitalization of listed stocks also experienced a sharp decline, falling to N55.132 trillion, a level reminiscent of the market’s performance in January when it reached N55.583 trillion.

This decline marks a stark reversal from the bullish trend that characterized the latter part of 2023 and spilled over into the early months of 2024.

Analysts had long anticipated a correction in the market, citing the unsustainable nature of the rally driven largely by sentiment rather than fundamental economic or market improvements.

David Adonri, a seasoned stockbroker, described the previous bullish run as sentiment-driven, noting that while the equities market had recorded impressive gains of 39.84 percent in the first quarter of 2024, it lacked substantial support from economic or market fundamentals.

Despite efforts to reignite investor interest through corporate actions and announcements, such as the Central Bank of Nigeria’s plans for a recapitalization exercise, the market struggled to maintain momentum.

Other investment avenues offering better yields further diverted attention away from equities.

The day’s trading session saw notable declines in the share prices of key players such as Dangote Sugar and PZ Cussons, both recording a 10 per cent drop, extending their stay on the losers’ chart.

The Initiates Plc, a waste management firm, also witnessed a similar decline in its share price.

Trading activities painted a gloomy picture as total deals, volume, and value all depreciated significantly compared to the previous day.

Sectoral performance reflected the overall bearish sentiment with declines observed in banking, insurance, and consumer goods indices.

While the industrial goods index saw a marginal rise, the oil and gas sector remained stable amidst the turmoil.

AccessCorp emerged as the most traded security by volume, while GTCO led in traded value, highlighting investor interest in specific stocks despite the market-wide downturn.

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Bonds

Investor Appetite Wanes as FG Bond Auction Sees Lowest Participation of the Year

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Subscription for the Federal Government bond auction on May 13, 2024 was the lowest so far in 2024.

Despite the subdued interest, the government successfully raised N380.76 billion, albeit experiencing a 39 per cent reduction compared to the proceeds from the previous month’s auction.

The aggregate subscription across all tenors amounted to N551.316 billion, representing a decrease from the N920.08 billion recorded in the preceding month.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) reported a non-competitive allotment of N301.30 billion.

The auction featured various bond tenors with the new 9-year bond taking center stage. This bond attracted substantial interest, garnering N373.875 billion in subscriptions.

Of this amount, N285.124 billion was allotted, inclusive of N179.00 billion under non-competitive bids.

The bids ranged from 16.95 per cent to 22.00 per cent, eventually settling at a marginal rate of 19.89 per cent.

Meanwhile, the 7-year bond received bids totaling N76.875 billion, with N62.975 billion allotted. Non-competitive allotments accounted for N85.80 billion.

The bids ranged from 17.20 per cent to 20.80 per cent, resulting in a final marginal rate of 19.74 per cent.

In addition, the 5-year bond attracted bids amounting to N100.56 billion, with an allotment of N32.67 billion.

An additional N36.500 billion was allocated through non-competitive bids. Bids spanned from 17.50 per cent to 21.00 per cent, and the marginal rate was set at 19.29 per cent.

The subdued subscription level in May 2024 indicates a lack of robust investor participation in government bonds compared to previous auctions.

This decline in investor interest could be attributed to various factors, including prevailing market conditions, economic uncertainties, and evolving investment preferences.

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Stock Market

Retail Traders Revive Meme-Stock Craze with GameStop and AMC Rally

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Meme-stock traders have reignited the flame that propelled shares of GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. to record heights once again.

GameStop, the video-game retailer at the center of the meme-stock phenomenon, appreciated by 60% in stock price to gain as much as 113% earlier in the day.

Meanwhile, AMC, the struggling movie theater chain, saw its shares rise by 32%, triggering multiple trading halts throughout the trading session.

The abrupt and dramatic swings in both stocks indicated the resurgent fervor among retail investors.

This latest rally was sparked by the return of Keith Gill, famously known as “Roaring Kitty” on social media, who played a pivotal role in driving the meme-stock mania of 2021.

Gill’s reappearance online reignited enthusiasm among day traders on platforms like Reddit, reviving interest in GameStop and AMC.

Amid the fervent trading activity, AMC announced the successful completion of a previously announced at-the-market offering of shares, raising approximately $250 million in total.

The company sold 72.5 million shares at an average price of $3.45, bolstering its financial position amidst the stock surge.

Tuttle Capital Management CEO, Matthew Tuttle, commented on the developments, stating, “I think it shaped up pretty good for everybody here.

They did what they needed to do, and the shareholders didn’t get wiped out.”

The rally in AMC’s stock also had a significant impact on its bonds, with its notes experiencing substantial gains in high-yield trading.

AMC’s 10% bond due 2026 surged as much as 11.25 cents on the dollar to 87 cents, reflecting investor optimism fueled by the stock’s resurgence.

While the recent surge in GameStop and AMC stocks echoes the frenzy of 2021, trading volumes and activity still fall short of the peak reached during the meme-stock craze of that period.

Despite this, GameStop ranked as the second-most traded stock by retail investors for out-of-the-money call option volumes on Monday, signaling sustained interest in the meme-stock universe.

As retail traders continue to drive momentum in GameStop and AMC, market observers remain vigilant, watching closely for further developments in this evolving saga of retail-driven stock market dynamics.

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