The growing noise about the rotation from growth to value stocks as a result of the optimistic vaccine news is “misguided” and could “catch-out investors,” warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations.
The stark warning from Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, which has $12bn under advisement, comes following several key breakthroughs in the fight against Covid-19 causing an ‘unprecedented’ rotation in stocks.
Market rotation is the counter movement by traders from one equity class or sector into another.
Mr Green warns: “Optimism driven by progress towards a Covid-19 vaccine has prompted many investors around the world to ditch several of 2020’s high-flying stocks – the ones that benefitted from the impact of the pandemic – and buy ones that were beaten down by coronavirus.
“In the last few days, there’s been a historical, violent rotation from growth and momentum stocks, like stay-at-home tech, to value funds, including financials and industrials, as a result of the positive vaccine news.
He continues: “Hopes for a potential vaccine are legitimate and the developments are, without question, positive news for humanity.
“However, The Great Rotation could be misguided and could catch-out investors.
“They might be looking ahead to the post-pandemic era with a virus-free economy, but the world, the global economy, how we live, do business and interact remains fundamentally changed.
“It is doubtful the world will go back exactly to how it was pre-Covid – there are many aspects of the ‘new normal’ which people like and support. As such, some of the major shifts are unlikely to be reversed.
“The remote working phenomenon is one example. Even if 20% of office workers return to the office full time, the change in working patterns is monumental.
“Other examples include business travel being replaced with videoconferencing, and online retail – people have fallen in love with it. Will they all suddenly go back to the stores? Then there’s the use of apps for everyday tasks such as banking, also for healthcare and medical analysis, amongst many other things.
“In many ways, Covid-19 simply accelerated the growing trend that existed before towards consumer convenience, for 24/7 access and on-demand.
“Therefore, dumping stocks that support these major societal and economic seismic shifts in favour of so-called recovery stocks might catch investors off guard.”
The deVere CEO also highlights that the roll-out of a mass global vaccination agenda will be a lengthy process and will face an uphill logistical struggle, plus there are the “vaccine sceptic concerns to address.”
He concludes: “The best way for investors to position themselves for the opportunities and to mitigate risks is to have a broad spread of investments, and not to try to second guess the market.”
Nigerian Stock Market Continues to Decline
Nigerian equities market declined for a third consecutive day on Thursday as 24 stocks closed in the red against 14 stocks that gain.
Investors traded 266,115,101 shares worth N4.216 billion during the trading hours of Thursday, against 243,185,049 shares valued at N3.747 billion that were transacted in 3,777 deals on Wednesday.
Market value dipped by N71 billion to N22.494 trillion, down from N22.565 trillion recorded on Wednesday. The Nigerian Exchange Limited All-Share Index lost 0.32 percent to 43,108.77 index points.
Sectorial analysis showed the banking industry closed in the red after losing 116 basis points on the back of a broad decline in ETI, Unity Bank and Union Bank of Nigeria Plc. Jaiz Bank and Fidelity Bank recorded gains.
Also, the consumer industry lost 106 basis points on a decline in Nigerian Breweries, Interbrew and Cadbury. Honeywell Flour led gainers with +9.76 percent.
Oil and gas and industrial industries shed 164 basis points and 1 basis point respectively. The Exchange year-to-date return depreciated by 7.05 percent.
|HONYFLOUR||N 3.69||N 4.05||0.36||9.76 %|
|AIICO||N 0.59||N 0.64||0.05||8.47 %|
|REGALINS||N 0.36||N 0.39||0.03||8.33 %|
|UPL||N 2.50||N 2.70||0.20||8.00 %|
|IKEJAHOTEL||N 1.25||N 1.35||0.10||8.00 %|
|MRS||N 15.20||N 13.70||-1.50||-9.87 %|
|CHAMS||N 0.23||N 0.21||-0.02||-8.70 %|
|ETI||N 8.75||N 8.00||-0.75||-8.57 %|
|CHIPLC||N 0.62||N 0.57||-0.05||-8.06 %|
|UNITYBNK||N 0.55||N 0.51||-0.04||-7.27 %|
Stock Market Extends Decline on Wednesday
Nigerian stock market extended decline for a second consecutive day on Wednesday despite 23 stocks closing in the green against 18 stocks that lost.
Investors exchanged 243,185,049 shares valued at N3.747 billion in 3,777 transactions on Wednesday, against 217,972,819 shares valued at N2.908 billion that were traded in 4,158 deals on Tuesday.
Market value dipped by N12 billion from N22.577 trillion recorded on Tuesday to N22.565 trillion on Wednesday while the All-Share Index sheds 0.02 percent to close at 43,245.02 index points.
The banking sector gained 25 basis points on positive close of Fidelity Bank, Zenith Bank, Sterling. Wema Bank and Access Bank both closed in the red.
The consumer goods sector also gained, expanding by 9 basis points on Unilever, Dangote Sugar, Flour Mill and Nestle. Honeyflour and Intbrew shed 9.78 percent and 1.87 percent, respectively.
The oil and gas sector lost 24 basis points amid the US decision to increase the global oil supply from its reserve. Industrial index gained 13 basis points. See other details below.
Top Five Gainers
|LIVINGTRUST||N 0.80||N 0.88||0.08||10.00 %|
|CHAMS||N 0.21||N 0.23||0.02||9.52 %|
|AIICO||N 0.54||N 0.59||0.05||9.26 %|
|IKEJAHOTEL||N 1.15||N 1.25||0.10||8.70 %|
|NGXGROUP||N 15.30||N 16.50||1.20||7.84 %|
|HONYFLOUR||N 4.09||N 3.69||-0.40||-9.78 %|
|ETERNA||N 6.65||N 6.05||-0.60||-9.02 %|
|REGALINS||N 0.39||N 0.36||-0.03||-7.69 %|
|CORNERST||N 0.56||N 0.52||-0.04||-7.14 %|
|WEMABANK||N 0.83||N 0.80||-0.03||-3.61 %|
Nigerian Stock Market Dips Marginally on Tuesday
The Nigerian stock market extended its decline on Tuesday despite investors transacting over N11 billion worth of Oando shares on Monday.
Investors traded 217,972,819 shares valued at N2.908 billion in 4,158 deals, against 2,402,071,798 shares worth N16.467 billion that were transacted in 4,811 on Monday.
The banking industry gained 21 basis points on the back of positive close from Wema Bank, Access Bank, UBN and ETI.
However, the consumer goods sector dipped by 1 basis point as the decline in Intebrew and Dangote Sugar outweighed profit from Honeywell Flour, Flourmill and Unilever. Oil and gas sector lost 20 basis points while the industrial sector closed flat.
Market value of all listed equities depreciated by N1 billion from N22.576 trillion it closed on Monday to N22.577 trillion on Tuesday.
All-Share Index declined by 0.01 percent to 43,255.14 index points, down from 43,260.13 index points posted on Monday. The Exchange year-to-date return moderated to 7.41 percent.
|HONYFLOUR||N 3.72||N 4.09||0.37||9.95 %|
|UPL||N 2.30||N 2.50||0.20||8.70 %|
|CHIPLC||N 0.54||N 0.58||0.04||7.41 %|
|GLAXOSMITH||N 6.05||N 6.40||0.35||5.79 %|
|FTNCOCOA||N 0.40||N 0.42||0.02||5.00 %|
|UPDC||N 1.39||N 1.26||-0.13||-9.35 %|
|NEM||N 2.05||N 1.86||-0.19||-9.27 %|
|MANSARD||N 2.35||N 2.23||-0.12||-5.11 %|
|CHAMS||N 0.22||N 0.21||-0.01||-4.55 %|
|ROYALEX||N 0.49||N 0.47||-0.02||-4.08 %|
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