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Nigeria’s Foreign Reserves Drop to $35.63 Billion, CBN Predicts Further Decline

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Weak oil prices amid falling global demand plunged Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves to $35.63 billion, the lowest in two months, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest data has shown.

After reaching as high as $45 billion in June 2019, the reserves has been on a downward trajectory since then. Declining to $38 billion earlier this year before plunging to $35.69 billion on October 28 from $35.74 billion on September 30, 2020.

The reserves had picked up slightly after the International Monetary Fund borrowed Nigeria $3.4 billion under the Rapid Financing Instrument to mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19 on the economy.

But persistent spending amid weak foreign revenue generation and low foreign direct investment weighed on the nation’s reserves.

In a recent report, the central bank said the reserves could decline to $29.9 billion by the end of December 2020 given the current global oil prices.

It said, “external reserves are expected to lie between $29.9bn and $34.3bn at end-December 2020 (predicated on current declining oil price between $20 and $40).”

“Sequel to the COVID-19 pandemic, the viability of the external sector in 2020 is expected to deteriorate, given the present worsening current account balance and depletion of external reserves driven, largely, by decelerating export receipts, particularly oil.

“Specifically, the degree of external reserves accumulation is expected to decelerate, as outflows are expected to outweigh inflows.”

Last week, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, said the Naira exchange rate could hit N475 by the end of December because of the weak oil prices and low demand for the commodity. He went on to predict that foreign reserves could drop to $34 billion, better than the central bank projection for the same month.

The CBN will maintain its forex rationing stance and intensify efforts to keep the naira stable. External reserves to likely fall towards $34bn in the coming months.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Naira

Naira Rises 2.5% on Dollar at Official Market, Slides at Parallel FX Market

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The Naira appreciated on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Thursday, November 7, as the local currency sold for N1,639.50/$1.

This happened as improved supply boosted the rate as the market faced heavy illiquidity.

At the official market, the domestic currency recorded a 2.51 per cent or N42.15 drop compared to the N1,681.65/$1 it was valued at the previous session on Wednesday.

This occurred as supply rose at the session as turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $244.96 million indicating that the session’s turnover climbed by 24.5 per cent, indicating that there was an increase of 48.18 million compared to $196.78 million which was published the day (Wednesday).

Since the administration of President Bola Tinubu came into power, the Naira has fallen 72 percent. This is largley due to illiquidity in the FX market has led to volatile outcomes for the Naira despite the country recording high fixed-income yields and the local currency getting interventions from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Also, the domestic currency witnessed gains against the British currency and the Euro in the week’s penultimate session.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency made a rise of N8.94 to wrap the session at N2,160.43/£1 from N2,169.37/£1 that it sold at the previous session and against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,796.61/€1 versus N1,819.86/€1, indicating an N23.25 appreciation.

In the parallel market, the local currency weakened further against the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar but made gains against the Pound Sterling and  the Euro.

The Naira lost N5.75 against the greenback to close at N1,721.48 to the US Dollar compared to N1,715.73/$1 it closed on Wednesday.

Against the Canadian Dollar as it depreciated further by 63 Kobo to close at N1,231.86 per Canadian Dollar, compared to the midweek’s N1,231.23 per CAD.

On the English currency, there was rise of N4.42 to wrap the session at N2,215.37/£1 from N2,219.79/£1 and it appreciated N11.81 on the Euro to quote at N1,848.28/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,860.09/€1.

 

 

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Naira Falls Across Multiple FX Windows as Trump Emergence Boost Dollar Value

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The Naira weakened to N1,681 per Dollar on Wednesday, November 6 in the official foreign exchange market, the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) as the American Dollar strengthened in the global market following the emergence of Donald Trump as the US president.

The local currency fell by N10.33 or 0.61 percent to close at N1,681.65/$1 compared with Tuesday’s closing rate of N1,671.32/$1.

The daily supply of FX as measured by secondary data from FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited indicated that turnover slumped by $21.99 million or 10.1 percent to $196.78 million from $218.77 million.

The decline in supply comes as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) limited the sale of forex in order to regulate cash sales in the FX market to ensure stability and compliance.

Also, the emergence of Donald Trump as the next US president made the Dollar stronger and weakened a host of other currencies, like the Naira.

The market will be looking forward to Trump’s potential policies and what it would mean for the global economy.

However, the Naira weakened in its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N8.74 to sell at N2,169.37/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,160.63/£1.

It closed flat against the Euro in the midweek to trade at the rate of N1,819.86/€1.

The local currency also weakened across the Dollar, Pound Sterling, and the Canadian Dollar in the black market.

The Naira lost N7.38 against the greenback to close at N1,715.73 to the US Dollar compared to N1,708.35/$1 it closed on Tuesday.

The Naira lost N3.33 to sell at N2,219.79/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,216.46/£1 and against the Canadian Dollar as it depreciated further by N6.61 to close at N1,231.23 per Canadian Dollar, compared to Tuesday’s N1,224.62 per CAD.

However, it followed a different pattern against the Euro as it appreciated N4.48 to quote at N1,860.09/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,864.57/€1 and it extended losses

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Forex

Iran’s Currency Plummets to Historic Low Amid Trump’s Return to the White House

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Iran’s currency fell on Wednesday to an all-time low as Donald Trump clinched the U.S. presidency again, signaling new challenges ahead for Tehran as it remains locked in the wars raging in the Middle East.

The rial traded at 703,000 rials to the dollar, traders in Tehran said. The rate could still change throughout the day. Iran’s Central Bank could flood the market with more hard currencies as an attempt to improve the rate, as it has done in the past.

The slide comes as the rial already faces considerable woes over its sharp slide in value — and as the mood on the streets of Tehran among some darkened.

“One-hundred percent he will intensify the sanctions,” said Amir Aghaeian, a 22-year-old student. “Things that are not in our favor will be worse. Our economy and social situation will surely get worse.”

He added: “I feel the country is going to blow up.”

In 2015, at the time of Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers, the rial was at 32,000 to $1. On July 30, the day that Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian was sworn in and started his term, the rate was 584,000 to $1.

Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, sparking years of tensions between the countries that persist today.

Iran’s economy has struggled for years under crippling international sanctions over its rapidly advancing nuclear program, which now enriches uranium at near weapons-grade levels.

Pezeshkian, elected after a helicopter crash killed hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi in May, came to power on a promise to reach a deal to ease Western sanctions.

Iran downplays US election impact amid tensions

However, Iran’s government has for weeks been trying to downplay the effect on Tehran of whoever won Tuesday’s election in the United States. That stance continued on Wednesday with a brief comment from Fatemeh Mohajerani, a spokeswoman for Pezeshkian’s administration.

”The election of the U.S. president doesn’t have anything specifically to do with us,” she said. “The major policies of America and the Islamic Republic are fixed, and they won’t heavily change by people replacing others. We have already made necessary preparations in advance.”

By midday Wednesday in the Middle East, Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States in a remarkable political comeback.

Tensions still remain high between the nations, 45 years after the 1979 U.S. Embassy takeover and 444-day hostage crisis that followed.

Iran remains locked in the Mideast wars roiling the region, with its allies battered — militant groups and fighters of its self-described “Axis of Resistance,” including the militant Palestinian Hamas, lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

Israel is pressing its war in the Gaza Strip targeting Hamas and its invasion of Lebanon amid devastating attacks against Hezbollah. At the same time, Iran still appears to be assessing damage from Israel’s strikes on the Islamic Republic on Oct. 26 in response to two Iranian ballistic missile attacks.

Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel — where U.S. troops now man a missile defense battery.

Mahmoud Parvari, a 71-year-old taxi driver in Tehran, did not mince his words when discussing Trump.

“I feel like I’m seeing the devil,” he said. “He looks like Satan, his eyes are like Satan and his behavior is like a mad man.”

But another taxi driver, who only gave his last name as Hosseini, offered a more pragmatic view.

“If it helps my country I would definitely” make a deal with Trump, he said. “It doesn’t matter if it’s Trump or anyone else. After all he is a human being.”

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